The market has had opportunities to correct with GS and
Greece but why not with Invest Intell and CBOE at records levels?
Is there a new theme in the market besdie buy the dips? In
8/06 we started a similar move for 7 months or so [ this is only 2
months so far ] with 3 % pullbacks at most and continued to
grind higher. Is this a repeat ? Thoughts anyone ?
Posted by panaspor on 25th of Apr 2010 at 03:11 am
Technicals mean nothing unless there is a reason.
Greece? Everyone is used to this one. Nothing but
better than expected news everywhere. Interest rates?
Amazing, nothing has changed. Until something changes, we are
going up. If we break 1225 to 1230 we are in an actual Bull
Market.
you have it backwards, technicals rule, news gets in the way.
Forget the fundamentals, trade the charts.
The number one problem here isn't technicals or news, it's
everyone's emotion getting in the way. To me there are too
many posts here that are all emotional and also constant EW bashing
that just takes up blog space and buries useful posts like trade
ideas, instead of something useful like; here's a great trade idea
and stock pattern, chart etc.
Posted by vnathwani on 25th of Apr 2010 at 01:49 pm
spot on matt.....to a certain degree. too much emotion, too much
focus on news and in the end, its the charts that really matter. in
terms of ew bashing, i disagree. many ew posts talk about prechters
latest count etc. well if his analysis.theory works, i say prove
it. otherwise, ew bashing as you all it is actually value add as it
puts us traders off following "bad" analysis
you can see its true about news being secondary. For the
past year, news that previously would have dropped the DOW a
hundred points has had no impact whatsoever because the liquidity
is just overwhelming everything else. There has been plenty of
news. It just hasn't mattered.
Coincidentally, Gary Savage has also recently
been likening today’s market to 08/06 through to 02/07, calling it
a ‘runaway move’, in which sentiment hit bullish extremes during
the first part, and then cooled during the second half, as everyone
started to try and pick a top.
And, as you say, corrections were always
mild 3% pullbacks at most - ‘measured corrections’, Gary calls
them. And these became more frequent in the second half.
The usual trading tools didn’t work:
oscillators mostly signaled overbought conditions, momentum was
diverging down for 4 months, and COT reports had become extremely
bearish by November – 4 months early.
The best strategy during this period was
to just go long. If we’re really in for a repeat of the 08/06 –
02/07 market, then the miners are the place to be according to
Gary, for whom it’s an article of faith that gold is in a secular
bull market.
But even if you’re not a fellow
believer, it seems to me that many of the miners have been hammered
down of late and have plenty of upside, e.g. Matt’s Friday pick,
GRS.
Posted by marketguy on 24th of Apr 2010 at 09:39 pm
anything is possible in a rigged game....I mean
seriously....take a look at ANY pullback of the intraday
charts of the SPY (but also the Qs) and tell me it hasn't been
anything but manipulation (I mean who in the hell is stepping in
time after time to purchase 2-3 million shares of SPY when the
market is in a free fall intraday (that's $250-almost $400
millionto you and I in "ONE" trade)....
give me a freaking break, this is the FED, PPT, or the Gov't
itself creating the mother of all bubbles...I'll admit I've stepped
in front of the freight train but it doesn't change the fact that
facts are facts.....
marketguy -- you keep saying this again and again, that the
market is being manipulated. Most people on this blog agree
with you, most people in the world probably agree actually -- the
market is being manipulated. But that has very little to do
with trading. At first it surprised people and the good
traders adapted -- like matt and steve and others -- and went with
the flow. Myself, I was a slow learner and tried calling tops
from June through October. I sympathize with you about
getting burned trying to pick the top, but because you keep talking
about market manipulation it sounds like you're blaming that for
problems trading so I'm wondering if you?
Posted by marketguy on 24th of Apr 2010 at 11:12 pm
number 1, if you'd read what I wrote knobhead I said I have not
one to blame but "myself"....number 2 that doesn't change the fact
of what's going on....believe what you want....
Wow. Lot of pent up anger there. I was just asking
what was behind your constant drumming about market
manipulation. I wasn't denigrating you. I can't believe
you called me a knobhead.
Posted by marketguy on 25th of Apr 2010 at 10:06 am
you know what Michael? you are correct...knobhead comment
was out of line and I apologize (chalk it up to coming back last
night with alot of drinks in the system and, as you mentioned, alot
of pent up frustration).
I'm always impatient with and skeptical of people who claim that
the market is being manipulated. Like all conspiracy
theories, claims of manipulation are an easy way out: they want to
make simple (i.e., the market's direction is the result of what
some nameless "big boys" are doing) what is incredibly complex and
often infuriatingly difficult to understand and predict. And
those who cry manipulation are often seeking to get off the hook
for their failings. It's much easier to think that one's call
should have right except that the cabal made the market behave
strangely than to admit that one's theories are flawed or
inadequate, or that one's application of those theories is flawed.
In a way, it's very comfortable to think that the market is
being manipulated. All the messiness of the market is thus
explained and rationalized. It's much more difficult to
admit that the market is a strange beast that is very hard to
reduce to a set of indicators.
Of course, the market may be manipulated. If so, it's
being done by a bunch of utter incompetents if their actions are so
transparent that, like Michael said, most people in the world
agree. But even if the manipulators are so secure that they
can flaunt their manipulation, it is still our job as traders to
adapt to the manipulation.
Again, I cringe when people claim manipulation, since I see that
as an attempt to absolve oneself of responsibility. And, even
it is true that there is manipulation, it still doesn't let anyone
off the hook. Trading is trading and good traders adapt to
any environment, even a manipulated one.
Posted by marketguy on 24th of Apr 2010 at 11:15 pm
read what I wrote again Mr. "Cringe"....same thing I said to
Michael....I "don't" blame anyone but myself...and you are correct
markets have been manipulated for centuries and I "should" learn to
look at things in shorter time frames than I do but again that
doesn't change the fact that the bulls are WAY over complacent
based on any flipping reading, oscillators, etc you look at and we
should've been due for some kind of pullback weeks ago...
let's see some charts or something from you rather than a
bunch of holier than though crap contradicting a different opinion
that anybody could spout about being on the right side of the
market at this point in time....
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Sell Off Coming?
Posted by rbreese on 24th of Apr 2010 at 09:22 pm
The market has had opportunities to correct with GS and Greece but why not with Invest Intell and CBOE at records levels? Is there a new theme in the market besdie buy the dips? In 8/06 we started a similar move for 7 months or so [ this is only 2 months so far ] with 3 % pullbacks at most and continued to grind higher. Is this a repeat ? Thoughts anyone ?
Technicals mean nothing unless there
Posted by panaspor on 25th of Apr 2010 at 03:11 am
Technicals mean nothing unless there is a reason. Greece? Everyone is used to this one. Nothing but better than expected news everywhere. Interest rates? Amazing, nothing has changed. Until something changes, we are going up. If we break 1225 to 1230 we are in an actual Bull Market.
That is if nothing changes.
you have it backwards, technicals
Posted by matt on 25th of Apr 2010 at 06:30 am
you have it backwards, technicals rule, news gets in the way. Forget the fundamentals, trade the charts.
The number one problem here isn't technicals or news, it's everyone's emotion getting in the way. To me there are too many posts here that are all emotional and also constant EW bashing that just takes up blog space and buries useful posts like trade ideas, instead of something useful like; here's a great trade idea and stock pattern, chart etc.
spot on matt.....to a certain
Posted by vnathwani on 25th of Apr 2010 at 01:49 pm
spot on matt.....to a certain degree. too much emotion, too much focus on news and in the end, its the charts that really matter. in terms of ew bashing, i disagree. many ew posts talk about prechters latest count etc. well if his analysis.theory works, i say prove it. otherwise, ew bashing as you all it is actually value add as it puts us traders off following "bad" analysis
you can see its true
Posted by Michael on 25th of Apr 2010 at 09:24 am
you can see its true about news being secondary. For the past year, news that previously would have dropped the DOW a hundred points has had no impact whatsoever because the liquidity is just overwhelming everything else. There has been plenty of news. It just hasn't mattered.
Runaway redux?
Posted by audax on 24th of Apr 2010 at 11:16 pm
rbreese
Coincidentally, Gary Savage has also recently been likening today’s market to 08/06 through to 02/07, calling it a ‘runaway move’, in which sentiment hit bullish extremes during the first part, and then cooled during the second half, as everyone started to try and pick a top.
And, as you say, corrections were always mild 3% pullbacks at most - ‘measured corrections’, Gary calls them. And these became more frequent in the second half.
The usual trading tools didn’t work: oscillators mostly signaled overbought conditions, momentum was diverging down for 4 months, and COT reports had become extremely bearish by November – 4 months early.
The best strategy during this period was to just go long. If we’re really in for a repeat of the 08/06 – 02/07 market, then the miners are the place to be according to Gary, for whom it’s an article of faith that gold is in a secular bull market.
But even if you’re not a fellow believer, it seems to me that many of the miners have been hammered down of late and have plenty of upside, e.g. Matt’s Friday pick, GRS.
anything is possible in a
Posted by marketguy on 24th of Apr 2010 at 09:39 pm
anything is possible in a rigged game....I mean seriously....take a look at ANY pullback of the intraday charts of the SPY (but also the Qs) and tell me it hasn't been anything but manipulation (I mean who in the hell is stepping in time after time to purchase 2-3 million shares of SPY when the market is in a free fall intraday (that's $250-almost $400 million to you and I in "ONE" trade)....
give me a freaking break, this is the FED, PPT, or the Gov't itself creating the mother of all bubbles...I'll admit I've stepped in front of the freight train but it doesn't change the fact that facts are facts.....
marketguy -- you keep saying
Posted by Michael on 24th of Apr 2010 at 09:50 pm
marketguy -- you keep saying this again and again, that the market is being manipulated. Most people on this blog agree with you, most people in the world probably agree actually -- the market is being manipulated. But that has very little to do with trading. At first it surprised people and the good traders adapted -- like matt and steve and others -- and went with the flow. Myself, I was a slow learner and tried calling tops from June through October. I sympathize with you about getting burned trying to pick the top, but because you keep talking about market manipulation it sounds like you're blaming that for problems trading so I'm wondering if you?
number 1, if you'd read
Posted by marketguy on 24th of Apr 2010 at 11:12 pm
number 1, if you'd read what I wrote knobhead I said I have not one to blame but "myself"....number 2 that doesn't change the fact of what's going on....believe what you want....
Wow. Lot of pent up
Posted by Michael on 24th of Apr 2010 at 11:41 pm
Wow. Lot of pent up anger there. I was just asking what was behind your constant drumming about market manipulation. I wasn't denigrating you. I can't believe you called me a knobhead.
What's a knobhead?
you know what Michael? you
Posted by marketguy on 25th of Apr 2010 at 10:06 am
you know what Michael? you are correct...knobhead comment was out of line and I apologize (chalk it up to coming back last night with alot of drinks in the system and, as you mentioned, alot of pent up frustration).
thanks. no problem!
Posted by Michael on 25th of Apr 2010 at 12:27 pm
thanks. no problem!
What about Mr. Cringe? Actually,
Posted by algyros on 25th of Apr 2010 at 10:14 am
What about Mr. Cringe? Actually, I kind of like that. Makes me sound like a Nerd Superhero.
I'm always impatient with and
Posted by algyros on 24th of Apr 2010 at 10:26 pm
I'm always impatient with and skeptical of people who claim that the market is being manipulated. Like all conspiracy theories, claims of manipulation are an easy way out: they want to make simple (i.e., the market's direction is the result of what some nameless "big boys" are doing) what is incredibly complex and often infuriatingly difficult to understand and predict. And those who cry manipulation are often seeking to get off the hook for their failings. It's much easier to think that one's call should have right except that the cabal made the market behave strangely than to admit that one's theories are flawed or inadequate, or that one's application of those theories is flawed.
In a way, it's very comfortable to think that the market is being manipulated. All the messiness of the market is thus explained and rationalized. It's much more difficult to admit that the market is a strange beast that is very hard to reduce to a set of indicators.
Of course, the market may be manipulated. If so, it's being done by a bunch of utter incompetents if their actions are so transparent that, like Michael said, most people in the world agree. But even if the manipulators are so secure that they can flaunt their manipulation, it is still our job as traders to adapt to the manipulation.
Again, I cringe when people claim manipulation, since I see that as an attempt to absolve oneself of responsibility. And, even it is true that there is manipulation, it still doesn't let anyone off the hook. Trading is trading and good traders adapt to any environment, even a manipulated one.
Amen. Well said.
Posted by hamvestor on 25th of Apr 2010 at 08:29 am
Amen. Well said.
read what I wrote again
Posted by marketguy on 24th of Apr 2010 at 11:15 pm
read what I wrote again Mr. "Cringe"....same thing I said to Michael....I "don't" blame anyone but myself...and you are correct markets have been manipulated for centuries and I "should" learn to look at things in shorter time frames than I do but again that doesn't change the fact that the bulls are WAY over complacent based on any flipping reading, oscillators, etc you look at and we should've been due for some kind of pullback weeks ago...
let's see some charts or something from you rather than a bunch of holier than though crap contradicting a different opinion that anybody could spout about being on the right side of the market at this point in time....