Scanning the 21 markets
tracked weekly by Christian at
www.perfectstockalert.com, and seeing that several major markets (Australia, France and
Hong Kong) have recently officially crossed over into bear market
territory, I thought it might be interesting to compare the
official bulls (however arthritic) and official bears in terms of
how long they’ve been around.
It may not be long before
Canada crosses back over into the bear list, with silver and India
not far behind.
Hadn’t realized how weak Italy
is: the index has fallen more than half since July 2008.
That comment of yours (that you and Steve work so hard picking
stocks, most of which are winners, yet hardly anyone plays them)
prompted me to try a different way: instead of my usual practice of
making an overlong list, hard to use in real time, I thought I'd
select just one, and actually buy it if it was looking good at the
open - AMCC!
And, yes, I was holding DUST, and BOIL from last week. Even BULK
worked...
Cosco (1919.HK) was up 5% today. And several stocks in the
Marine Transportation Index are up a lot: FREE 46%, FRO 25%, NEWL
22%.
This is how my Hong Kong broker explains Cosco's surge:
It is worth to note that the BDI, a reading of the freight rate
level of the global dry-bulk shipping industry, rebounded to 900 on
June 14, 2013. It is also the highest index level since March
28, 2013. Despite structural challenges such as slowing
global economy, weak commodity market and vessel oversupply, the
industry may have bottomed.
It seems that slowing supply of new vessels might be the
underlying reason for this trend.
I've taken a starter position in BALT, in case the uptrend
kalimn caught in a couple of months ago resumes.
The wedge fits with Caldaro's current count, that we're in wave
A of a flat wave 4, which would alternate with the wave 2 zigzag
(and wave C of that A wave). Target: "between 1499 and 1523";
expected duration 5 - 7 days, with today being day
5: http://caldaro.wordpress.com
As well as the technicals - on DBA, say, as Matt has been
pointing out - suggesting that a breakout for commodities may be
imminent, also on their side are market cycles (tendency for money
to flow from equities into commodities as a bull trend nears its
end), relative oversold levels compared to equities, and upcoming
sunspot
activity: http://solarcycles.net/2013/03/28/as-things-stand-2/
And it's looking as if increased sunspot activity might soon
give the commodity complex a boost, according to this solar trader:
http://solarcycles.net/2013/03/07/markets-trades-and-solar-update/
Last week I posted a weekly
chart of SIFY, suggesting it may have been nearing an area of
longer term support / resistance. Last week’s bounce petered out,
but this week it’s bounced again, forming an inverted
hammer.
And on the daily chart,
there’s positive divergence on the MACD, and the stochastics are
trying to turn up (again).
Unfortunately his timing was
off, and the stock plunged along with a dip in the overall market.
It’s a very volatile stock, and it fact lost more than half its
value, bottoming out at that support area around 3. Then it
recovered, gained 60% in a single day, and has since sold off, on
diminishing volume.
So there may be the potential
for dramatic gains - or losses, of course - if this one starts to
move again...
In today's video on the slopeofhope, Tim said GDX was his
favourite short. And his pal Serge over at the ETF cafe points out
that it's formed an identical-looking H$S pattern to the S&P
before it crashed, saying that if he was holding GDX he'd be
'concerned': http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/
I've taken the trade, knowing that the system's track record
puts the odds on our side. But interesting to see whether Tim's
track record of unsuccessfully shorting gold plays out...
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Moonshot
Posted by audax on 24th of Mar 2014 at 07:30 am
Here's what Motivewave's automated EW count is projecting for XGTI.
Here's a chart of the
Inside day and breadth
Posted by audax on 9th of Nov 2013 at 11:08 pm
Here's a chart of the lagging $NYAD - doesn't look good.
But while there are fewer new highs, the new lows are still steady.
DDD'S tumbling ATR
Posted by audax on 25th of Aug 2013 at 07:00 pm
DDD's price is going nowhere, while its ATR is falling fast - something's brewing...
Recent Death Crosses
Posted by audax on 6th of Jul 2013 at 12:23 am
Scanning the 21 markets tracked weekly by Christian at www.perfectstockalert.com , and seeing that several major markets (Australia, France and Hong Kong) have recently officially crossed over into bear market territory, I thought it might be interesting to compare the official bulls (however arthritic) and official bears in terms of how long they’ve been around.
It may not be long before Canada crosses back over into the bear list, with silver and India not far behind.
Hadn’t realized how weak Italy is: the index has fallen more than half since July 2008.
Volatility Signal
Posted by audax on 26th of Jun 2013 at 03:36 am
An interesting observation by Alessio Rastani at Leading Trader:
Playing just one
AMCC wow!!
Posted by audax on 18th of Jun 2013 at 04:14 pm
That comment of yours (that you and Steve work so hard picking stocks, most of which are winners, yet hardly anyone plays them) prompted me to try a different way: instead of my usual practice of making an overlong list, hard to use in real time, I thought I'd select just one, and actually buy it if it was looking good at the open - AMCC!
And, yes, I was holding DUST, and BOIL from last week. Even BULK worked...
Dry Shippers on the move?
Posted by audax on 17th of Jun 2013 at 01:20 pm
Cosco (1919.HK) was up 5% today. And several stocks in the Marine Transportation Index are up a lot: FREE 46%, FRO 25%, NEWL 22%.
This is how my Hong Kong broker explains Cosco's surge:
It is worth to note that the BDI, a reading of the freight rate level of the global dry-bulk shipping industry, rebounded to 900 on June 14, 2013. It is also the highest index level since March 28, 2013. Despite structural challenges such as slowing global economy, weak commodity market and vessel oversupply, the industry may have bottomed.
It seems that slowing supply of new vessels might be the underlying reason for this trend.
I've taken a starter position in BALT, in case the uptrend kalimn caught in a couple of months ago resumes.
But best of all
CCJ
Posted by audax on 21st of May 2013 at 01:09 pm
Best of all has been URA - up over 200% in the last couple of weeks!
SX wedge = A wave of flat?
SPX Wedges?
Posted by audax on 18th of Apr 2013 at 05:50 pm
The wedge fits with Caldaro's current count, that we're in wave A of a flat wave 4, which would alternate with the wave 2 zigzag (and wave C of that A wave). Target: "between 1499 and 1523"; expected duration 5 - 7 days, with today being day 5: http://caldaro.wordpress.com
Solar Perspective
Posted by audax on 28th of Mar 2013 at 06:08 am
As well as the technicals - on DBA, say, as Matt has been pointing out - suggesting that a breakout for commodities may be imminent, also on their side are market cycles (tendency for money to flow from equities into commodities as a bull trend nears its end), relative oversold levels compared to equities, and upcoming sunspot activity: http://solarcycles.net/2013/03/28/as-things-stand-2/
Take care
Shippers are still on fire
Posted by audax on 22nd of Mar 2013 at 11:13 am
They were mentioned by Cramer
Will Silver Follow Copper?
Posted by audax on 21st of Mar 2013 at 06:01 am
Following on from the potential bull flag Matt mentioned in ZSL today, here’s an interesting take on silver’s future prospects: http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.in/2013/03/these-next-few-days-could-see.html
Help from increased sunspot activity?
Dollar topping? Commodities heating up?
Posted by audax on 10th of Mar 2013 at 06:48 am
And it's looking as if increased sunspot activity might soon give the commodity complex a boost, according to this solar trader: http://solarcycles.net/2013/03/07/markets-trades-and-solar-update/
SIFY revisited
Posted by audax on 21st of Apr 2012 at 03:41 am
Last week I posted a weekly chart of SIFY, suggesting it may have been nearing an area of longer term support / resistance. Last week’s bounce petered out, but this week it’s bounced again, forming an inverted hammer.
And on the daily chart, there’s positive divergence on the MACD, and the stochastics are trying to turn up (again).
I got interested in this stock late last year, when the very insightful Tischendorf posted it as his latest trade: http://www.tischendorf.com/2011/09/21/sify-technologies-stock-trade-betting-on-indias-growing-middle-class/
Unfortunately his timing was off, and the stock plunged along with a dip in the overall market. It’s a very volatile stock, and it fact lost more than half its value, bottoming out at that support area around 3. Then it recovered, gained 60% in a single day, and has since sold off, on diminishing volume.
So there may be the potential for dramatic gains - or losses, of course - if this one starts to move again...
SIFY bottoming?
Posted by audax on 11th of Apr 2012 at 02:34 pm
SIFY looks like it may be getting close to important support / resistance...
VNM
VNN up over 5%
Posted by audax on 15th of Mar 2012 at 04:15 pm
Sorry, I meant VNM, the Vietnam ETF (iPhone typo)
VNN up over 5%
Posted by audax on 15th of Mar 2012 at 03:56 pm
Looks like VNN has done consolidating, and is now on another upswing.
WPRT
Posted by audax on 13th of Sep 2011 at 10:12 am
Huge breakout in WPRT today. I bought yesterday, on the recommendation on the very resourceful www.tischendorf.com
As he says, there's no upside resistance, unlike most of the other stocks in this sector...
Tim Knight on GDX
ES 15 Update
Posted by audax on 11th of Aug 2011 at 01:04 am
In today's video on the slopeofhope, Tim said GDX was his favourite short. And his pal Serge over at the ETF cafe points out that it's formed an identical-looking H$S pattern to the S&P before it crashed, saying that if he was holding GDX he'd be 'concerned': http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/
I've taken the trade, knowing that the system's track record puts the odds on our side. But interesting to see whether Tim's track record of unsuccessfully shorting gold plays out...
Title: Thanks Joseph Still hanging on...
DUNR, we are riding to Texas and the rode will be long
Posted by audax on 5th of Jan 2011 at 02:12 pm
Still hanging on...