Listen guys, we can always do better, am I totally happy with
our analysis from last year? heck no, and could we have done
better, hell yes!
I wish I had come out and said OK everyone go balls to the walls
long in April 2009 because the market is going to go up for many
many months. While I thought the market would have at
least a 6 month rally after the march low (which I said back in
March), I didn't come out and say go balls to the walls long and
just hold everything. Of course I did primarily have longs on
the watchlist. Personally I think EW hurt my longer term
analysis last year too.
Listen, all we can do is look back at the past and learn and
adapt! That's why I'm always constantly striving to improve
etc, i.e. just like the long term 401K system that I made, that's
way way better than buy at hold, about 10X in fact.
Also, trading is so emotional, there is so much emotion
involved! It's easy to be the 'Arm Chair' quarterback after
the fact. That's why all we can do is look at our past
mistakes and constantly improve ourselves.
Otherwise, for BPT, will point out the major and long term
trends, however our main focus and where we make the most money is
on short term trade ideas lasting anywhere from 3 days to 3 weeks
or more. You will make a lot more money making 5% - 20% week
after week trading stocks than buying and hold the market in your
trading account. Now for you 401k plans, you can do something
different of course and try to play the major trends.
Posted by pcordeiro on 16th of Mar 2010 at 02:15 pm
haven't seen many (any) out there do that regarding this
unprecedented rally since March. This last push up seems to have
broken every Bear's back (well, except saturn6's) - and it's
painful. And emotional - - oh, yes. Trust crushing -- oh, yes. And
for me, that's the worst - trusting indicators that fail, or
whipsaw, or theories (EW) that you trusted were leading you down
the right path. My goal is to work with the fewest amount of
indicators, along with trendlines, to gain trust back in this whole
trading process. Hopefully that, along with BPT's fortitude in
guidance, financial woes will be overcome and goals met. Again,
thanks for words and re-grouping.
I can't speak for everybody, but a pep talk like that is
helpful. I also thank you for your honesty in not re-writing
the last year's prognostication. On the mental side of
things, learning and adapting and realizing that this game is
played over a lifetime, not a year, helps me re-focus.
I am having a very difficult time right now dealing with
gloating bulls. They are the majority right now and it is
making me hate this game. I have a friend who deals with a
broker and knows almost nothing about how the markets work.
His broker had him "buy and hold" a small basket of stocks
(gold and financials) in 2006. He had mostly TD, IAG and PWE.
I warned him of the danger of this -- he scoffed at my
suggestions. A little over a year ago when his account was
down to almost nothing, he "doubled down" in the same names (he
borrowed as much money as he could to do so and blindly plowed it
into the market at the lows). I'll get an occasional call or
email from him asking me what I think about the markets -- meaning
he wants to tell me how much he is making in the market. I
honestly don't need a lecture on "buying low", "holding for the
long term" or "why gold is going to $5000", so I don't even allow
myself to speak on the subject.
I have family members trying to reason with me and have me put
my money into "a safe mutual fund" and get 10% returns on average
per year. Just buy the dips and in x years, you'll have a
nice "nest egg". Sorry, off-topic, but certainly a mental
part of the game that I'm having trouble with.
One thing that last year has caused me to focus on is developing
longer term mechanical systems for the market. I have my long
term 401K system, which I also call the
'watching paint dry
system' because it only gives about 1 trade a year and is boring as
hell to traders, however still it's returned about 10 fold higher
than just buying and holding the market (140 times your money from
1961 instead of 17 times your money for buy and hold) , the stats
go back to 1961 on this system, it has caught every major bull
market and bear market and kept you in the bull markets or out of
the bear markets. But again, it's like watching paint dry lol.
Also as you have seen, we are developing intermediate mechanical
systems that do about 10 - 15 trades a year, these will catch
market trends and are true end of days systems i.e the signals come
near the market close and therefore trades are entered at the
market close only and held for days to weeks.
and of course we will continue to focus more on the watchlist
and short term trade ideas and cover less market analysis.
Will you be offering this system along with the intermediate
systems when you introduce those? I don't mind watching paint dry
while CNBC dickers away with excuses for why the market went up or
down each day; as long as I know I'm usually on the right side of
that.
guys damn just trade the trend, when it reverses down, play it,
when it reverses up, trade that.
If you are worried about ultra long term, then I'll post when
your long long term 401K system changes, but realize that it's akin
to watching paint dry, because it only gives a trade about once a
year! seriously, once a year.
For 6 months they have said bear market? Really? I have not
been here that long. I thought they said this was wave 2
waiting for the wave 3 to go to new lows. So whats the
deal?
guys, I've never said it was wave 2, I said it could have been
it was a potential scenario, but the bullish scenarios were clearly
laid out!
we have had long after long after long after on the watchlist
for 12 months. I've said that the market is in a bull market,
how long does it last? I don't know, I dont' care, trade
it.
Play the trend, the trend is up, our long term systems have been
long for a long time. You make a lot more money by playing
the trend instead of worrying about a definition of bull or bear
market, it depends on how you define a bull market, but who care,
trade the trend.
So what do you do if this is a bull market, does that mean you
just go out and go long everything and throw discipline out the
window? If you believe that, then just turn off the computer
and don't worry about anything,
Elliot wave analysis changes as fast as the market. Use it for
some extra information if you wish, but don't use it as your main
tool to pick your trades.
Posted by vnathwani on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:44 pm
Problem is EW isn't just extra information. Its extra darn
confusing in most cases and here is a classic example. To put it in
a nutshell, the prior "count" or whatever EW fans like to call it
was screwed up and its now conveniently forgotten as a "new count"
takes centre stage.
again as I've stated before, use EW as a tool only, personally I
only find it useful for shorter term, such a intra day charts and
sometimes daily charts, but honesty I find it more useful intra day
(such as 1 min or 5 min, 15 min, 60 min charts) i.e. in conjunction
with positive or negative divergence, but that's it.
that's why I rarely post any EW in my newsletters on daily index
charts, I prefer trendlines, MA's, and other things.
When EW can get people into trouble is on the real long term,
because if you are trying to say something is supercycle or grand
supercycle, those things are so theoretical.
What the Heck are they talking about, for months you've said the
trend was up until proved other wise! The trend is still up it has
been since July with a slight stutter in early Nov. Ride the wave
or drown!
vnathwani - we get your point enough said on the subject.
Please feel free to share some analysis (charts, etc) versus
simply critiquing things and offering opinions. The market is
DYNAMIC and things are subject to change under ALL TECHNICAL
analysis. Focus on the prevailing trend and play the best setups in
accordance with one's objectives.
Posted by vnathwani on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:53 pm
EW isn't technical analysis. Its a theory Steve
Outside EW, technical analysis is subject to change and its
accountable
The reason why people keep coming on the blog talking about "you
said it was wave 2 this and abc that" is because the audio always
has lines and squiggles referring to it.
Take the accountability and measure and state clearly when a
scenario is right or wrong and the actual number of S&P Points
that this super EW theory derives
Very true but my point is simply that the market is DYNAMIC and
subject to change under ALL TECHNICAL analysis. I simply use
EW for mapping purposes and not for triggers.
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
Bear markets
regarding the market
Posted by honzer on 16th of Mar 2010 at 11:55 am
What changed , for 6 months now you have said we are in a BEAR MARKET what changed today??
Remember wave 2's job is to turn all bears into bulls(or viceversa) and clearly it has suceeded...lol!!!!
Posted by hurricanemalta on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:39 pm
I am still bearish!
Posted by saturn6 on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:59 pm
so that means we have higher to go...lol
+1 Saturn 6!
Posted by hurricanemalta on 16th of Mar 2010 at 01:43 pm
ha, yeah maybe Listen guys,
Posted by matt on 16th of Mar 2010 at 01:07 pm
ha, yeah maybe
Listen guys, we can always do better, am I totally happy with our analysis from last year? heck no, and could we have done better, hell yes!
I wish I had come out and said OK everyone go balls to the walls long in April 2009 because the market is going to go up for many many months. While I thought the market would have at least a 6 month rally after the march low (which I said back in March), I didn't come out and say go balls to the walls long and just hold everything. Of course I did primarily have longs on the watchlist. Personally I think EW hurt my longer term analysis last year too.
Listen, all we can do is look back at the past and learn and adapt! That's why I'm always constantly striving to improve etc, i.e. just like the long term 401K system that I made, that's way way better than buy at hold, about 10X in fact.
Also, trading is so emotional, there is so much emotion involved! It's easy to be the 'Arm Chair' quarterback after the fact. That's why all we can do is look at our past mistakes and constantly improve ourselves.
Otherwise, for BPT, will point out the major and long term trends, however our main focus and where we make the most money is on short term trade ideas lasting anywhere from 3 days to 3 weeks or more. You will make a lot more money making 5% - 20% week after week trading stocks than buying and hold the market in your trading account. Now for you 401k plans, you can do something different of course and try to play the major trends.
thanks for the honest comments, Matt..
Posted by pcordeiro on 16th of Mar 2010 at 02:15 pm
haven't seen many (any) out there do that regarding this unprecedented rally since March. This last push up seems to have broken every Bear's back (well, except saturn6's) - and it's painful. And emotional - - oh, yes. Trust crushing -- oh, yes. And for me, that's the worst - trusting indicators that fail, or whipsaw, or theories (EW) that you trusted were leading you down the right path. My goal is to work with the fewest amount of indicators, along with trendlines, to gain trust back in this whole trading process. Hopefully that, along with BPT's fortitude in guidance, financial woes will be overcome and goals met. Again, thanks for words and re-grouping.
Nice comment
Posted by racerick on 16th of Mar 2010 at 04:37 pm
Title: Thanks for that Matt I
Posted by kalinm on 16th of Mar 2010 at 01:30 pm
I can't speak for everybody, but a pep talk like that is helpful. I also thank you for your honesty in not re-writing the last year's prognostication. On the mental side of things, learning and adapting and realizing that this game is played over a lifetime, not a year, helps me re-focus.
I am having a very difficult time right now dealing with gloating bulls. They are the majority right now and it is making me hate this game. I have a friend who deals with a broker and knows almost nothing about how the markets work. His broker had him "buy and hold" a small basket of stocks (gold and financials) in 2006. He had mostly TD, IAG and PWE. I warned him of the danger of this -- he scoffed at my suggestions. A little over a year ago when his account was down to almost nothing, he "doubled down" in the same names (he borrowed as much money as he could to do so and blindly plowed it into the market at the lows). I'll get an occasional call or email from him asking me what I think about the markets -- meaning he wants to tell me how much he is making in the market. I honestly don't need a lecture on "buying low", "holding for the long term" or "why gold is going to $5000", so I don't even allow myself to speak on the subject.
I have family members trying to reason with me and have me put my money into "a safe mutual fund" and get 10% returns on average per year. Just buy the dips and in x years, you'll have a nice "nest egg". Sorry, off-topic, but certainly a mental part of the game that I'm having trouble with.
One thing that last year
Posted by matt on 16th of Mar 2010 at 02:51 pm
One thing that last year has caused me to focus on is developing longer term mechanical systems for the market. I have my long term 401K system, which I also call the 'watching paint dry system ' because it only gives about 1 trade a year and is boring as hell to traders, however still it's returned about 10 fold higher than just buying and holding the market (140 times your money from 1961 instead of 17 times your money for buy and hold) , the stats go back to 1961 on this system, it has caught every major bull market and bear market and kept you in the bull markets or out of the bear markets. But again, it's like watching paint dry lol.
Also as you have seen, we are developing intermediate mechanical systems that do about 10 - 15 trades a year, these will catch market trends and are true end of days systems i.e the signals come near the market close and therefore trades are entered at the market close only and held for days to weeks.
and of course we will continue to focus more on the watchlist and short term trade ideas and cover less market analysis.
Will you be offering this
Posted by oreo on 17th of Mar 2010 at 08:36 am
Will you be offering this system along with the intermediate systems when you introduce those? I don't mind watching paint dry while CNBC dickers away with excuses for why the market went up or down each day; as long as I know I'm usually on the right side of that.
That's OK Matt, some of
Posted by brophy on 16th of Mar 2010 at 02:59 pm
That's OK Matt, some of us actually ARE long term investor/traders!
guys damn just trade the
Posted by matt on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:42 pm
guys damn just trade the trend, when it reverses down, play it, when it reverses up, trade that.
If you are worried about ultra long term, then I'll post when your long long term 401K system changes, but realize that it's akin to watching paint dry, because it only gives a trade about once a year! seriously, once a year.
Long Term System - back to 1961, gives a trade about once a year
For 6 months they have
Posted by searay on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:13 pm
For 6 months they have said bear market? Really? I have not been here that long. I thought they said this was wave 2 waiting for the wave 3 to go to new lows. So whats the deal?
guys, I've never said it
Posted by matt on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:42 pm
guys, I've never said it was wave 2, I said it could have been it was a potential scenario, but the bullish scenarios were clearly laid out!
we have had long after long after long after on the watchlist for 12 months. I've said that the market is in a bull market, how long does it last? I don't know, I dont' care, trade it.
Play the trend, the trend is up, our long term systems have been long for a long time. You make a lot more money by playing the trend instead of worrying about a definition of bull or bear market, it depends on how you define a bull market, but who care, trade the trend.
So what do you do if this is a bull market, does that mean you just go out and go long everything and throw discipline out the window? If you believe that, then just turn off the computer and don't worry about anything,
all the sentences here Matt
Posted by vnathwani on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:47 pm
all the sentences here Matt that don't have the word elliott or wave in it make complete sense
Elliot Wave
Posted by mvachon on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:37 pm
Elliot wave analysis changes as fast as the market. Use it for some extra information if you wish, but don't use it as your main tool to pick your trades.
Problem is EW isn't just
Posted by vnathwani on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:44 pm
Problem is EW isn't just extra information. Its extra darn confusing in most cases and here is a classic example. To put it in a nutshell, the prior "count" or whatever EW fans like to call it was screwed up and its now conveniently forgotten as a "new count" takes centre stage.
Where is the accountability for the old count?
again as I've stated before,
Posted by matt on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:51 pm
again as I've stated before, use EW as a tool only, personally I only find it useful for shorter term, such a intra day charts and sometimes daily charts, but honesty I find it more useful intra day (such as 1 min or 5 min, 15 min, 60 min charts) i.e. in conjunction with positive or negative divergence, but that's it.
that's why I rarely post any EW in my newsletters on daily index charts, I prefer trendlines, MA's, and other things.
When EW can get people into trouble is on the real long term, because if you are trying to say something is supercycle or grand supercycle, those things are so theoretical.
agreed. Trendlines/ MA/ Divergences and
Posted by vnathwani on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:55 pm
agreed. Trendlines/ MA/ Divergences and using a specific MA crossover for example....13/34 to define the bigger trend.
I will keep schtum about EW as I have made my points clear now
What the Heck are they
Posted by ditch on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:55 pm
What the Heck are they talking about, for months you've said the trend was up until proved other wise! The trend is still up it has been since July with a slight stutter in early Nov. Ride the wave or drown!
vnathwani - we get your
Posted by steve on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:49 pm
vnathwani - we get your point enough said on the subject. Please feel free to share some analysis (charts, etc) versus simply critiquing things and offering opinions. The market is DYNAMIC and things are subject to change under ALL TECHNICAL analysis. Focus on the prevailing trend and play the best setups in accordance with one's objectives.
EW isn't technical analysis. Its
Posted by vnathwani on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:53 pm
EW isn't technical analysis. Its a theory Steve
Outside EW, technical analysis is subject to change and its accountable
The reason why people keep coming on the blog talking about "you said it was wave 2 this and abc that" is because the audio always has lines and squiggles referring to it.
Take the accountability and measure and state clearly when a scenario is right or wrong and the actual number of S&P Points that this super EW theory derives
Very true but my point
Posted by steve on 16th of Mar 2010 at 12:57 pm
Very true but my point is simply that the market is DYNAMIC and subject to change under ALL TECHNICAL analysis. I simply use EW for mapping purposes and not for triggers.