Wave 4 is typically 24% or 38% fib retrace of wave 3.  That last little rip off the SPX lows (24% retrace) broke intraday symmetry to upside.  seems like a really short timeframe for a pullback, however - does that imply that 38% retrace is still in the cards, down to SPX ~4063?

CTA positioning is too short, and they are forced to cover in pretty much any scenario (barring some major negative market dislocation) according to the info provided. 

Keep in mind, corporate buybacks in black out period - resumes April 26, and there is massive amount of catch-up to take place, relative to annoucements. Soo, there is another bullish driver.

Allegedly from GS

MOC $339m to buyside

MOC switch $1.4B to buyside

To be clear, the bullish perspective on semis having bottomed can be harmonized with the perspective that the bottom for the economy is still a ways out is by considering that either 1) its a rolling recession, hitting different industries/sectors at different stages (semis a leading component), or 2) semis will experience a double dip.  My personal view on semis is that they still have room to run, with near-term resistance around the $265 level on the SMH.  

IBD reputation has been seriously sullied in recent years. Gil Morales, a disciple of William O’Neill, mocked IBD‘s “follow-through“ methodology not too long ago.

While fundamental analysts, and investors, focus on earnings growth/decline, and valuation relative to growth rate, capturing alpha with a divergent view relative to the consensus, it seems that technical analysis better captures the equally important (more important?) aspect of how much liquidity is in the system, and what portion of that liquidity wants to be risk-on.

The market’s hope, or bullish perspective, is that fundamentals at the most commodity oriented chip company in the semiconductor industry have bottomed, namely bc MU stated that their days of inventory peaked in the quarter.  Generally speaking, customers over order chips during the good times, because the chip industry is operating at peak capacity, and the customers want to make sure to have enough chips to make their products. Once the downturn begins, they realize they’re sitting on too much chip inventory and slow, or stop, their chip purchases.  DRAM and NAND are the most commodity oriented chips in the industry, so they have the biggest order swing factor.  Generally speaking, Micron‘s sales will fluctuate much more over the course of a cycle, than Intel, for instance, and the more specialized chip makers, such as Texas Instruments, or NVDA, which should see their sales fluctuate much less. Many market participants look to chipmakers as a leading indicator of the market, or at least the tech sector, (similar to looking at transports as a leading indicator of the SPX) and hence the economy, which is why the chip industry started its downturn, and likely bottomed, ahead of the rest of the market. Hope that answers your question, Lewis.

15:51 MOC $1.2B buyside 

I was a semi-equip analyst @ lehman back in the day. You buy semis when fundamentals look the worst.  Mgmt kitchen-sinked the quarter and said that days of inventory peaked in the quarter.  MU is a canary in the coal mine for the industry bc it produces commodity products.  So, the hope is that the quarter just reported was the trough, not just for MU, but the industry.   

15:51  MOC $4.3B to sell side 

For Matt’s T-shirt collection

JPM just broke intraday symmetry to upside. Second largest holding in XLF (worst sector on the day)...And, XLF just followed suit - breaking symmetry to upside.

is there a Demark 13 showing up on the SPX 60 min?

SPX Jan 19 options - Is the settlement value equal to the opening price, or closing price, on Jan 20? thanks for the help

APPL 135 puts - large open interest - might pin there. could sell a put credit spread at 135. any thots would be appreciated. 

shorting NFLX  on the spike through trendline, covering prior to 38% retrace. Bot the 62% retrace and sold the 50%.  the easy $  - 8 points total 2% of stock price.

my average is about $150 credit/contract. 

collecting credits - sold a series of 1/19 3930/3950 call spreads - betting SPX doesn't close gap. any feedback would be appreciated. separately, bot 387.65 SPY (~50% retrace recent  highs vs oct lows).

Brophy, pls elaborate: are you shorting call spreads and put spreads? doing any b-flys? what type of time frames - weeklies for the fast theta decay? enquiring minds want to know...thx