I was a semi-equip analyst @ lehman back in the day. You buy
semis when fundamentals look the worst. Mgmt kitchen-sinked
the quarter and said that days of inventory peaked in the quarter.
MU is a canary in the coal mine for the industry bc it
produces commodity products. So, the hope is that the quarter
just reported was the trough, not just for MU, but the industry.
Posted by DigiNomad on 30th of Mar 2023 at 12:06 am
Seems to be true for most sectors, not just semis. As you know,
the game is all about year over year, quarter over quarter
comparisons. It's hard not to win if you catch the bottom of a
cycle(when numbers are bad, but compare positively to the previous
periods horrible numbers). That said, historically, the bottom
comes with lower valuations and a capitulation moment. IMO, we
haven't seen either yet. But, this quarter end window dressing
doesn't suck.
Posted by DigiNomad on 30th of Mar 2023 at 12:46 pm
I don't know about Turkey...it's more like a chicken moment.
As in, do managers leave the window dressing in place until the
Friday close so that they can show they were holding winners during
the quarter with the hopes they can get out next week. Or do they
chicken out and sell into the close
tomorrow? Either way, make the wrong decisions and you're a
turkey.
Posted by fcarbone on 31st of Mar 2023 at 10:41 am
Can someone thank China for me, sometimes you just get lucky.
Covered next week's 62 Puts. Not sure why we do not like China,
they were so nice to me today.
Posted by fredsaid on 31st of Mar 2023 at 10:45 am
I was suspicious on the MU short but bought a handful of 60 puts
that expire today for next to nothing - sold at the open for a nice
gain. Just fooling around.
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Listened to the Micron earnings
Posted by fcarbone on 28th of Mar 2023 at 05:55 pm
Listened to the Micron earnings call, can't believe the stock is not in the toilet tonight. Appears I know nothing!
Shorting Micron, analyst painted a
Posted by fcarbone on 29th of Mar 2023 at 11:44 am
Shorting Micron, analyst painted a picture that isn't true, from what I heard. Very typical, seen this before.
Hope you guys are watching?
Posted by fcarbone on 29th of Mar 2023 at 12:14 pm
Hope you guys are watching?
I was a semi-equip analyst
Posted by te22 on 29th of Mar 2023 at 03:02 pm
I was a semi-equip analyst @ lehman back in the day. You buy semis when fundamentals look the worst. Mgmt kitchen-sinked the quarter and said that days of inventory peaked in the quarter. MU is a canary in the coal mine for the industry bc it produces commodity products. So, the hope is that the quarter just reported was the trough, not just for MU, but the industry.
Seems to be true for
Posted by DigiNomad on 30th of Mar 2023 at 12:06 am
Seems to be true for most sectors, not just semis. As you know, the game is all about year over year, quarter over quarter comparisons. It's hard not to win if you catch the bottom of a cycle(when numbers are bad, but compare positively to the previous periods horrible numbers). That said, historically, the bottom comes with lower valuations and a capitulation moment. IMO, we haven't seen either yet. But, this quarter end window dressing doesn't suck.
Please keep the dressing coming
Posted by fredsaid on 30th of Mar 2023 at 12:08 am
Please keep the dressing coming ! Can I get a side of Turkey ?
I don't know about Turkey...it's
Posted by DigiNomad on 30th of Mar 2023 at 12:46 pm
I don't know about Turkey...it's more like a chicken moment. As in, do managers leave the window dressing in place until the Friday close so that they can show they were holding winners during the quarter with the hopes they can get out next week. Or do they chicken out and sell into the close tomorrow? Either way, make the wrong decisions and you're a turkey.
Thanks te22
Posted by fcarbone on 29th of Mar 2023 at 09:08 pm
Thanks te22
nice thanks for sharing your
Posted by matt on 29th of Mar 2023 at 03:06 pm
nice thanks for sharing your past experience and observations, I'm sure you have some stories about Lehman.
yes I think overtime we'll see these fundamental problems come to roost in the economy
Can someone thank China for
Posted by fcarbone on 31st of Mar 2023 at 10:41 am
Can someone thank China for me, sometimes you just get lucky. Covered next week's 62 Puts. Not sure why we do not like China, they were so nice to me today.
I was suspicious on the
Posted by fredsaid on 31st of Mar 2023 at 10:45 am
I was suspicious on the MU short but bought a handful of 60 puts that expire today for next to nothing - sold at the open for a nice gain. Just fooling around.