This hit Bloomberg yesterday morning - FWIW

5 min spx slow stochs (60,3) - if gets to and stays above 80, its a trend day.  those are the days to buy the pullback to the VWAP / fast stochs (10,3,3) turn back above 20. That's a classic Matt trade, btw.

squeezy time: Blackrock calling that Fed will insert term "pivot" into statement next Wednesday. 

META aftermarket low price = 76% retrace (so far) of all time high to all time low.  NFLX did 77%, I believe.

1.618 fib  Wave 3 SPX  3757.22 first, and highest probability, target has been hit 

so far, your expanded flat scenario is spot on  - great call! thank you

Matt/Steve, if in expanded flat, on 15 minute, major wave A and B are complete, correct? Wouldn’t that argue for 5 waves up in C, w wave 3 underway  currently? Thanks for your help

Maybe a low probability, but with the symmetry break, and subsequent higher low this morning, a symmetry match from this morning's lows to highs, would suggest that a move into 3730 is possible - I believe that coincides w max pain on OPEX.  low probability bc 8 of last 10 Fridays have been negative.

fundamentals are clearly negative: FDX, CSX, JBHT, KNX, plunge in transport rates and volumes - all pointing down.

The most interesting two points about that video are: 1) Vix spike to >30 at this time, rather than a point spike which was a typical 2022 buy-the-dip opportunity, the multiple days >30 is analogous to April, when the market plunged further, and 2)  Negative sentiment is also not likely a counter-trend point spike, but the beginning of many months of negative sentiment, similar to 2008.   

Comparison to previous analogous bear markets: four indicate a material bounce around this point. 2008, however, shows a sharp sell off from this point.  how could 2022 be like 2008?  Swiss National Bank took out $11B in dollars from US treasury on Wednesday - largest since WFC.  Quietly being pitched as an arbitrage opportunity, but it’s more likely the beginning of a liquidity crisis. 

That guy’s long term view is scary.  The basis of his reasoning is $95B of QT every month for the next three years to work off the $ Trillions of Covid QE. Consider those 13 years of QE driven Bull Market.  

I sold mine, too @ 248. You could always buy a 21 Oct 250/270 call spread and short 2x the qty of $195 puts to cut the cost down.  would need to be -20% to get hit on the puts, and you're otherwise risking about 2% of the stock price

Steve, do you view the coiling pattern on the SPX today to be a wave 4, or wave B, neither, or hasn't enough time passed for proper judgement. thanks

Nasdaq 100 futures

Easiest to just layer into SMH. Basket approach is best. in semi equip, ASML, AMAT , LRCX, KLAC, TER are the leaders. 

I was a semiconductor equipment analyst back in the day at Lehman, covered ASML. The Semis and Semi_Equip companies obviously have high correlation. They are the classic cyclical companies.  The "investment" buy point for the SOX/SMH is when they look the worst - still a long ways away.

That SPX 232 pt symmetry target also coincides w daily 20SMA, and encompasses the Sept 21-22 "thin" zone.