Posted by sschulman on 8th of Jan 2013 at 12:11 pm
It must have been with difficulty that you guys decided to drop
the original system as the one-and-only extra special system
on this site. Still, there was so much emotion, you probably made
the right decision to just move on.
Personally I wasn't able to take the last (winning) trades
because of the PFG hassles.
I'm going to just stick with my account with TD Waterhouse for
now which in Canada does not trade futures. I'm still readjusting
my perspective - especially margin is calculated so differently.
And I sure don't have the time (nor the mental energy anymore) to
consistently day trade.
So THANK YOU SO MUCH for all these new systems, which can
be traded in a non-futures account. It must take so much dedication
and work to maintain this awesome site!
.....Susan
Posted by sschulman on 28th of Dec 2012 at 08:45 pm
Well the slide did NOT continue during those final 45 minutes
from 4:30 pm to 5:15 pm. March E-mini futures closed a couple
of points off those lows. Final close was 1386.75. Not that
anything means anything.
Posted by sschulman on 28th of Dec 2012 at 05:35 pm
OK, I did some googling. It seems that, EVEN on Fridays, globex
trading resumes after the 4:15-4:30 break, and continues another 45
minutes till 5:15. Go figure! I just don't know how much I
don't know! LOL!
Posted by sschulman on 28th of Dec 2012 at 05:12 pm
OK, am I in a time warp or something? Doesn't trading end for
the weekend at 4:15 est? Maybe not?? My charting software is still
chugging along in real time. This IS Friday, right? Is there a
new trading schedule or something?? Is it an old schedule I've
never been aware of??
Posted by sschulman on 28th of Dec 2012 at 03:11 pm
off topic - quote by Douglas Adams - oddly appropriate for these
times in the market :-)
There is a theory which states that if ever anybody discovers
exactly what the Universe is for and why it is here, it will
instantly disappear and be replaced by something even more bizarre
and inexplicable. There is another theory which states that this
has already happened.
Posted by sschulman on 6th of Dec 2012 at 09:03 pm
Ohhhh. Thanx. Then, I guess the next one will be this December
21st 2012. Winter solstice and it will also be options
expiration. As if I don't have enough to worry about!
Posted by sschulman on 6th of Dec 2012 at 08:36 pm
Although I've made no bad mistakes trading with TD Waterhouse,
sometimes the limitations - due to not having a futures trading
account - are frustrating. So this evening I again started looking
at Canadian futures brokers. First one I called was
OptionsXpress.
My prepared questions in order of importance are about 1)
how safe is my money, 2) do they use SPAN margining, 3)
trading platform.
So my first question to the OptionsXpress rep was to ask if
they're with CIPF (Canadian Investor Protection Fund). His answer
was that they've "made a business decision to close the Canadian
section of their business". He wouldn't divulge anything else.
Sounds suspicious to me. My paranoia kicks in and I imagine
brokerages dropping like flies. :-) Anybody know anything about
this?
Posted by sschulman on 10th of Oct 2012 at 06:41 pm
Hi Matt,
Seems like a very nice system.
What are your rules for your version of this system for its
2nd, 3rd, and 4th entries? eg for 2nd entry now, would the RSI2 on
spx have to stay below 10% for another day?
Posted by sschulman on 16th of Sep 2012 at 03:05 pm
Here's a quote from John Mauldin's free weekly newsletter:
"In a book that we have looked to many times, This Time Is
Different, Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart detail over 200 instances
where nations had a credit crisis. One of their main points is that
nations seem to be able to borrow money right up until what they
call the "Bang Moment" happens, and the bond market no longer
functions. Right up until that moment, proponents of ever more debt
argue that "this time is different," but it never is."
OK, so, just SUPPOSE this time is not different and the bang
moment actually happens (although when is anybody's guess). Here's
what I just don't understand: what happens to the U.S. stock
market? Articles keep talking about the bond market. That's Greek
to me because I've never traded bonds. (No pun intended and
certainly no offense to Greeks.)
Posted by sschulman on 7th of Sep 2012 at 02:48 pm
Nice that this one and the previous one were winners! I didn't
have my act together yet after the PFG fiasco to enter either of
them! Just another example of how trading (and life) simply doesn't
go according to plan. Never mind - I'm still optimistic. (weak
smile)
LOL, I take it by "absurd", you mean "awesome"? I'm old. When I
say "absurd", I mean, well, "absurd". I'm already using every bit
of margining that my account will allow.
Not trying to sound complicated - it's taken me lots of years of
experience to learn option strategies. I'm rather battle-weary.
Another luxury though, is having my bank account and the
brokerage run by the same bank. I can real time with my
laptop at no charge, transfer funds back and forth. No
more worrying whether the mail carrier has misplaced my cheque. No
more waiting and listening at the door for courriers. No more
deciding whether I should do wire transfers. No more driving to the
bank.
What I've learned so far about switching from a futures
brokerage to an equities brokerage:
- There's a universe of ETF's out there!!
- You can trade options on the SPY, and you can trade options on
the S&P500 cash. Both trade till 4:15 pm (at least at TD
WaterHouse they do).
- If your short SPX options expire in the money, your position
goes to cash. But if your short SPY options expire in the money,
you end up having a SPY position.
- margin requirements for naked short options is absurd. But
far-out-of-money vertical spreads still give an excellent
return.
- First I took some SPY (vertical spread) option positions, THEN
realized that commission would be much less if I took SPX (verticaL
spread) option positions instead, THEN realized that the strike
prices for the SPX options are further apart, so the margin
required is greater, so after doing the math, it turns out that (in
spite of a bit more commission) the % annualized return for
SPY options vertical spreads is much better.
- I've lost some luxuries - you can't hedge positions with the
underlying. Well technically you can, but it doesn't improve your
margin requirement anyway. No more 24/7 Globex trading - get some
healthy sleep instead.
- margining in general is no longer sensible - eg double
margining for butterflies and iron condors - (I understand there
are some "option friendly" brokerages who don't do this, but for
now I'll stay where I am. ) Another example - a short option in a
later month is margined as naked even if you've covered it
with a long near-month option position -- ie no more reverse
calendar spreads.
Posted by sschulman on 31st of Jul 2012 at 11:38 am
Thanks Muslhead and Parkridge77 and Bkout3.
I'd be selling a long ETF, not buying a short ETF so I think
the leverage wouldn't work against me so much. I had no idea that
they were based on futures, nor did I consider they might be hard
to find to short. Hadn't heard of spxu. Will look into it. LOL, so
much I didn't know! Will look into all of it.
Posted by sschulman on 31st of Jul 2012 at 10:52 am
Trying to find how leveraged ETF's work. One article says that
"given enough time, they'll all go to zero" in a relatively flat
market. I don't get it - do they behave like options?? But
how can they behave like options if there's no strike prices to
trade - you just trade whatever the market is, don't you?
Can anyone direct me to a site that explains this.
Since I'm getting kinda bearish, I'd be interested in
shorting UPRO - but first I better know what the heck I'm doing.
Thanks anybody.
Posted by sschulman on 23rd of Jul 2012 at 02:33 pm
Yes, everything seems to be cycles. I completely missed that
recent (finally-profitable trade because not set up with a new
broker yet.
Only thing that saves me time and again is my sense of humour,
and counting my blessings. (Driving to work this morning in
air-conditioned car, listening to 60's rock&roll - how bad can
life be. :-))
This is first time in about a week that I've read the SPY system
messages - just didn't want to know what I was missing.
I'm not sure exactly how independant the Cdn branch was. I
don't understand the anatomy of corporations or companies or
whatever they are. Even the guys in the Canadian PFG office are
all suddenly unemployed right now.
But yes the ordinary retail clients (like me) who had an account
with the Canadian branch - our money was kept separately in a
Canadian bank - even if our money was denominated in US funds, it
was still kept in a Canadian bank. When I asked PFG every month or
so to send me a cheque, the cheque was issued by a Canadian bank -
the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.
It's not so odd. There are many US brokerages with Canadian
branches. Even the new brokerage RJ Obrien, where our accounts are
being transferred to, is a US company with an office in Toronto -
and the ARE covered by the CIPF (Canadian Investor Protection
Fund).
The rep I spoke to from RJ Obrien this morning told me that
they're experienced doing this sort of thing because they did it
for the MFGlobal-Canada clients.
Posted by sschulman on 11th of Jul 2012 at 02:56 pm
I got this email dated 11 am this morning. It doesn't affect me
because my account was with Canadian branch. But it may cause some
weakness in the market in general over the next day or 2. Here's
cut-paste.
"Wednesday, July 11, 2012
PFGBEST's clearing FCM continues to liquidate open positions. We
are still processing for the trade date of Tuesday, July 10, and
will send July 10 statements out as soon as processing is complete.
"
.....Susan
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Thank you
SPY systems etc
Posted by sschulman on 8th of Jan 2013 at 12:11 pm
It must have been with difficulty that you guys decided to drop the original system as the one-and-only extra special system on this site. Still, there was so much emotion, you probably made the right decision to just move on.
Personally I wasn't able to take the last (winning) trades because of the PFG hassles.
I'm going to just stick with my account with TD Waterhouse for now which in Canada does not trade futures. I'm still readjusting my perspective - especially margin is calculated so differently. And I sure don't have the time (nor the mental energy anymore) to consistently day trade.
So THANK YOU SO MUCH for all these new systems, which can be traded in a non-futures account. It must take so much dedication and work to maintain this awesome site!
.....Susan
the final 45 minutes
ES futures still trading???
Posted by sschulman on 28th of Dec 2012 at 08:45 pm
Well the slide did NOT continue during those final 45 minutes from 4:30 pm to 5:15 pm. March E-mini futures closed a couple of points off those lows. Final close was 1386.75. Not that anything means anything.
.....Sooz
trades till 5:15 pm est on fridays
ES futures still trading???
Posted by sschulman on 28th of Dec 2012 at 05:35 pm
OK, I did some googling. It seems that, EVEN on Fridays, globex trading resumes after the 4:15-4:30 break, and continues another 45 minutes till 5:15. Go figure! I just don't know how much I don't know! LOL!
ES futures still trading???
Posted by sschulman on 28th of Dec 2012 at 05:12 pm
OK, am I in a time warp or something? Doesn't trading end for the weekend at 4:15 est? Maybe not?? My charting software is still chugging along in real time. This IS Friday, right? Is there a new trading schedule or something?? Is it an old schedule I've never been aware of??
.....Susan
off topic - quote by Douglas Adams
Posted by sschulman on 28th of Dec 2012 at 03:11 pm
off topic - quote by Douglas Adams - oddly appropriate for these times in the market :-)
There is a theory which states that if ever anybody discovers exactly what the Universe is for and why it is here, it will instantly disappear and be replaced by something even more bizarre and inexplicable. There is another theory which states that this has already happened.
12/12/2012
SPX 1550 by year end
Posted by sschulman on 6th of Dec 2012 at 09:03 pm
Ohhhh. Thanx. Then, I guess the next one will be this December 21st 2012. Winter solstice and it will also be options expiration. As if I don't have enough to worry about!
.....Susan
what is an "Eleven date"?
SPX 1550 by year end
Posted by sschulman on 6th of Dec 2012 at 08:47 pm
Hi Zach06, I just have to ask. :-) And how do you get 11 from 12/12/12 anyway??
.....Susan
curious about OptionsXpress
Posted by sschulman on 6th of Dec 2012 at 08:36 pm
Although I've made no bad mistakes trading with TD Waterhouse, sometimes the limitations - due to not having a futures trading account - are frustrating. So this evening I again started looking at Canadian futures brokers. First one I called was OptionsXpress.
My prepared questions in order of importance are about 1) how safe is my money, 2) do they use SPAN margining, 3) trading platform.
So my first question to the OptionsXpress rep was to ask if they're with CIPF (Canadian Investor Protection Fund). His answer was that they've "made a business decision to close the Canadian section of their business". He wouldn't divulge anything else.
Sounds suspicious to me. My paranoia kicks in and I imagine brokerages dropping like flies. :-) Anybody know anything about this?
.....Susan
What are your other rules?
SPX RSI 2 reversion to mean system
Posted by sschulman on 10th of Oct 2012 at 06:41 pm
Hi Matt,
Seems like a very nice system.
What are your rules for your version of this system for its 2nd, 3rd, and 4th entries? eg for 2nd entry now, would the RSI2 on spx have to stay below 10% for another day?
3rd entry
Posted by sschulman on 25th of Sep 2012 at 08:08 pm
Well...I didn't go back to check, but didn't we determine that the 3rd entry of a trade is almost always a winner? So good luck to all. :-)
.....Susan
Economics 101?
Posted by sschulman on 16th of Sep 2012 at 03:05 pm
Here's a quote from John Mauldin's free weekly newsletter:
"In a book that we have looked to many times, This Time Is Different, Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart detail over 200 instances where nations had a credit crisis. One of their main points is that nations seem to be able to borrow money right up until what they call the "Bang Moment" happens, and the bond market no longer functions. Right up until that moment, proponents of ever more debt argue that "this time is different," but it never is."
OK, so, just SUPPOSE this time is not different and the bang moment actually happens (although when is anybody's guess). Here's what I just don't understand: what happens to the U.S. stock market? Articles keep talking about the bond market. That's Greek to me because I've never traded bonds. (No pun intended and certainly no offense to Greeks.)
.....Susan
And Hussman this week (free
interesting article on possible market top
Posted by sschulman on 10th of Sep 2012 at 12:13 pm
And Hussman this week (free weekly articles) is particularly bearish even for Hussman.
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/
life
SPY Swing System update
Posted by sschulman on 7th of Sep 2012 at 02:48 pm
Nice that this one and the previous one were winners! I didn't have my act together yet after the PFG fiasco to enter either of them! Just another example of how trading (and life) simply doesn't go according to plan. Never mind - I'm still optimistic. (weak smile)
Title: portfolio margin Hi Zach06, LOL, I
Equities brokerage versus Futures brokerage
Posted by sschulman on 7th of Aug 2012 at 07:06 pm
Hi Zach06,
LOL, I take it by "absurd", you mean "awesome"? I'm old. When I say "absurd", I mean, well, "absurd". I'm already using every bit of margining that my account will allow.
Not trying to sound complicated - it's taken me lots of years of experience to learn option strategies. I'm rather battle-weary.
Another luxury though, is having my bank account and the brokerage run by the same bank. I can real time with my laptop at no charge, transfer funds back and forth. No more worrying whether the mail carrier has misplaced my cheque. No more waiting and listening at the door for courriers. No more deciding whether I should do wire transfers. No more driving to the bank.
.....:-) Susan
Equities brokerage versus Futures brokerage
Posted by sschulman on 7th of Aug 2012 at 06:28 pm
What I've learned so far about switching from a futures brokerage to an equities brokerage:
- There's a universe of ETF's out there!!
- You can trade options on the SPY, and you can trade options on the S&P500 cash. Both trade till 4:15 pm (at least at TD WaterHouse they do).
- If your short SPX options expire in the money, your position goes to cash. But if your short SPY options expire in the money, you end up having a SPY position.
- margin requirements for naked short options is absurd. But far-out-of-money vertical spreads still give an excellent return.
- First I took some SPY (vertical spread) option positions, THEN realized that commission would be much less if I took SPX (verticaL spread) option positions instead, THEN realized that the strike prices for the SPX options are further apart, so the margin required is greater, so after doing the math, it turns out that (in spite of a bit more commission) the % annualized return for SPY options vertical spreads is much better.
- I've lost some luxuries - you can't hedge positions with the underlying. Well technically you can, but it doesn't improve your margin requirement anyway. No more 24/7 Globex trading - get some healthy sleep instead.
- margining in general is no longer sensible - eg double margining for butterflies and iron condors - (I understand there are some "option friendly" brokerages who don't do this, but for now I'll stay where I am. ) Another example - a short option in a later month is margined as naked even if you've covered it with a long near-month option position -- ie no more reverse calendar spreads.
- Overall though, I think it'll be just fine.
.....Susan
Thanks Muslhead and Parkridge77 and
leveraged ETF's
Posted by sschulman on 31st of Jul 2012 at 11:38 am
Thanks Muslhead and Parkridge77 and Bkout3.
I'd be selling a long ETF, not buying a short ETF so I think the leverage wouldn't work against me so much. I had no idea that they were based on futures, nor did I consider they might be hard to find to short. Hadn't heard of spxu. Will look into it. LOL, so much I didn't know! Will look into all of it.
.....Susan
leveraged ETF's
Posted by sschulman on 31st of Jul 2012 at 10:52 am
Trying to find how leveraged ETF's work. One article says that "given enough time, they'll all go to zero" in a relatively flat market. I don't get it - do they behave like options?? But how can they behave like options if there's no strike prices to trade - you just trade whatever the market is, don't you?
Can anyone direct me to a site that explains this.
Since I'm getting kinda bearish, I'd be interested in shorting UPRO - but first I better know what the heck I'm doing. Thanks anybody.
.....Susan
cycles and a little off topic
SPY system analysis of profit curves and thoughts
Posted by sschulman on 23rd of Jul 2012 at 02:33 pm
Yes, everything seems to be cycles. I completely missed that recent (finally-profitable trade because not set up with a new broker yet.
Only thing that saves me time and again is my sense of humour, and counting my blessings. (Driving to work this morning in air-conditioned car, listening to 60's rock&roll - how bad can life be. :-))
This is first time in about a week that I've read the SPY system messages - just didn't want to know what I was missing.
.....Susan
Title: Canadian branches Hi Parkridge77 I'm not
may affect market temporarily
Posted by sschulman on 11th of Jul 2012 at 04:13 pm
Hi Parkridge77
I'm not sure exactly how independant the Cdn branch was. I don't understand the anatomy of corporations or companies or whatever they are. Even the guys in the Canadian PFG office are all suddenly unemployed right now.
But yes the ordinary retail clients (like me) who had an account with the Canadian branch - our money was kept separately in a Canadian bank - even if our money was denominated in US funds, it was still kept in a Canadian bank. When I asked PFG every month or so to send me a cheque, the cheque was issued by a Canadian bank - the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.
It's not so odd. There are many US brokerages with Canadian branches. Even the new brokerage RJ Obrien, where our accounts are being transferred to, is a US company with an office in Toronto - and the ARE covered by the CIPF (Canadian Investor Protection Fund).
The rep I spoke to from RJ Obrien this morning told me that they're experienced doing this sort of thing because they did it for the MFGlobal-Canada clients.
.....Susan
may affect market temporarily
Posted by sschulman on 11th of Jul 2012 at 02:56 pm
I got this email dated 11 am this morning. It doesn't affect me because my account was with Canadian branch. But it may cause some weakness in the market in general over the next day or 2. Here's cut-paste.
"Wednesday, July 11, 2012
PFGBEST's clearing FCM continues to liquidate open positions. We are still processing for the trade date of Tuesday, July 10, and will send July 10 statements out as soon as processing is complete. "
.....Susan