Posted by sschulman on 16th of Sep 2012 at 03:05 pm
Here's a quote from John Mauldin's free weekly newsletter:
"In a book that we have looked to many times, This Time Is
Different, Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart detail over 200 instances
where nations had a credit crisis. One of their main points is that
nations seem to be able to borrow money right up until what they
call the "Bang Moment" happens, and the bond market no longer
functions. Right up until that moment, proponents of ever more debt
argue that "this time is different," but it never is."
OK, so, just SUPPOSE this time is not different and the bang
moment actually happens (although when is anybody's guess). Here's
what I just don't understand: what happens to the U.S. stock
market? Articles keep talking about the bond market. That's Greek
to me because I've never traded bonds. (No pun intended and
certainly no offense to Greeks.)
Posted by blake_20 on 16th of Sep 2012 at 04:37 pm
Susan - The best example is the crisis in Iceland. Really scary.
This is all from memory, so read up on it. The stock market
plunged about 25% or so, then they suspended trading for a few
days. Then it collapsed about 75% when they reopended it. The
currency also collapsed. I remember hearing that people in other
parts of the world were trapped as their access to credit cards was
cut. After the crisis, a guy from Iceland called into an
internet broadcast I listen to. He said gold was the only thing
that held up. He was all in gold & survived intact. He said
everyone he knew was suffering. Think about who is captain of the
ship when, & if, this happens to us.
Posted by freddy123321 on 16th of Sep 2012 at 07:18 pm
Im quite sure iceland had warning signs before stuff really hit
the fan. Like here; we did not wake up one day and it was chaos.
There were signs leading up. Unfortunately i was not learned in
trading back then. Just like flash crash here in 2010. There was a
period of a couple weeks when price action was horrible. It may
feel like out of the blue to most but i am fairly sure that it is
not that way. Anyone remember 87 crash? I was 2 young but i bet
there was a couple week period also where market didnt feel
right.
Posted by freddy123321 on 16th of Sep 2012 at 07:23 pm
This past coupe months action felt bullish. The charts were
setting up for a move. Which way? Guess it was up. Still to many
non believers, imho. And I bet money managers are going to be
forced to chase? Not sure but tha is my guess. Mkt will selloff
eventually, when? Not sure but does not feel like anytime soon. I
will change on a dime though, lol
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Economics 101?
Posted by sschulman on 16th of Sep 2012 at 03:05 pm
Here's a quote from John Mauldin's free weekly newsletter:
"In a book that we have looked to many times, This Time Is Different, Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart detail over 200 instances where nations had a credit crisis. One of their main points is that nations seem to be able to borrow money right up until what they call the "Bang Moment" happens, and the bond market no longer functions. Right up until that moment, proponents of ever more debt argue that "this time is different," but it never is."
OK, so, just SUPPOSE this time is not different and the bang moment actually happens (although when is anybody's guess). Here's what I just don't understand: what happens to the U.S. stock market? Articles keep talking about the bond market. That's Greek to me because I've never traded bonds. (No pun intended and certainly no offense to Greeks.)
.....Susan
Look at Matt's chart of
Posted by wowten on 16th of Sep 2012 at 06:17 pm
Look at Matt's chart of Grek ...down 90% until this recent bounce.
Think 2008/2009 when Lehman went down.
Susan - The best example
Posted by blake_20 on 16th of Sep 2012 at 04:37 pm
Susan - The best example is the crisis in Iceland. Really scary. This is all from memory, so read up on it. The stock market plunged about 25% or so, then they suspended trading for a few days. Then it collapsed about 75% when they reopended it. The currency also collapsed. I remember hearing that people in other parts of the world were trapped as their access to credit cards was cut. After the crisis, a guy from Iceland called into an internet broadcast I listen to. He said gold was the only thing that held up. He was all in gold & survived intact. He said everyone he knew was suffering. Think about who is captain of the ship when, & if, this happens to us.
Im quite sure iceland had
Posted by freddy123321 on 16th of Sep 2012 at 07:18 pm
Im quite sure iceland had warning signs before stuff really hit the fan. Like here; we did not wake up one day and it was chaos. There were signs leading up. Unfortunately i was not learned in trading back then. Just like flash crash here in 2010. There was a period of a couple weeks when price action was horrible. It may feel like out of the blue to most but i am fairly sure that it is not that way. Anyone remember 87 crash? I was 2 young but i bet there was a couple week period also where market didnt feel right.
This past coupe months action
Posted by freddy123321 on 16th of Sep 2012 at 07:23 pm
This past coupe months action felt bullish. The charts were setting up for a move. Which way? Guess it was up. Still to many non believers, imho. And I bet money managers are going to be forced to chase? Not sure but tha is my guess. Mkt will selloff eventually, when? Not sure but does not feel like anytime soon. I will change on a dime though, lol