I'll check it out. thanks. :-)

.....Susan

Welcome. LOL it takes me so long to putter around with cut-pasting into MSPaint, cropping, etc, and then into the message, I usually get exasperated before I'm done - and by that time the market has gone far beyond my chart anyway. But this one got me rather excited. :-)

.....Susan

Steve your red count seems to be more evident in my volume chart than your 1-minute price chart.

Each bar represents 20,000 contracts. The time shown is CST, not EST. Hope I can post this properly.

Today's high at 1374 at 10 am to today's low around 11:30 at 1363 is a perfect 5 waves down.  (Look at a 5-minute chart.) After that, ES retraced back up a perfect 61.8 % to 1372! Even I cant help seeing this it's so classic, and I don't even believe this ElliottWave stuff works. It's uncanny when it does work though!

.....Susan

I had never heard of Bernoulli. Googled it and found that, in regards to trading, it has something to do with law of averages. But I haven't been able to find any market related stuff - just some complicated math abstracts. Seems pretty esoteric to me.

Steveo I haven't found anything about timing so where do you come up with Wed or Thurs?? I only found where you say that when market crosses a channel line, it tends to keep trending in the direction of the crossing. How does Bernoulli fit into this??

..... Susan

Used to be that at 4 pm, most of the bid and ask volumes would immediately dry up. Now it gets quite high around 3:50 but STAYS high right up to 4:15.

I don't mean the actual volume traded - I mean the bid volumes and ask volumes pile up on both sides of the DOM. There's gotta be a clue in there about how to trade the close, but darned if I know.

.....Susan

Just looked at a daily chart.  From Feb 22, 2011 to March 18, 2011 ES dropped in 3 waves down from 1342 to 1246. That's about 100 points in one month starting now.

But I'm an emotional permabear. Can't help it. I try to not let it inflence my trading. :-)

Meant to reply to this awhile ago. Not that I expect anybody cares - but it would be nice to see a little more valid interaction on the blog.

Here's why it's bright side: I think the SPY system is valid. The stats are valid. In any good system there will be drawdowns. That's normal and expected and doesn't negate the stats.

So I think it's awesome that we don't have to pay for the system during the drawdowns.

.....Susan

Sorry ES esumes on globex at 6 pm est this evening (as usual as though it were Sunday).

ES on Globex stops trading in about 45 minutes. AT 11:30 am EST.

Then resumes on Globex at 4:15 pm EST as usual for the overnight.

Just curious vinapatel, do you now still see a pb to about 1330?

Sometime ago I read about this and now can't find the source. If someone else can, then please let me know. Here's what I remember:

The vix calculation takes into consideration the number of days before expiries. All days are counted, even non-trading days. Therefore (all else being equal), the difference from Friday to Monday, is larger than the difference from Monday to Tuesday for example. Traders anticipate this and therefore there's often a drop in vix futures already on the Friday. Friday's drop doesn't necessarily predict the market will rise on Monday - or in the case of long weekends, on Tuesday.

Better to think of today's drop of -1.44, as about only a drop of about .50 for 3 days in a row. Hope this makes some sense.

Ahhhh, soooo cute! :-)

Thanks for those sites Tom and Matt. My genious sons would love those Geekdesks - maybe I'll get them each one!

.....Susan

Matt it's so interesting the different types of advice you got about your back - from meds to exercises to yoga, etc. To me, your office trading room looks so futuristic! It's a personal preference of course, but my back would hurt just at the thought of working there! You probably want it that way because it keeps you mentally alert and focussed?

I trade sitting on my bed my feet up, my back propped against some pillows against the wall, with my laptop on another small pillow on my lap. It's comfortable and cosy. I'll bet you could feel better just by adding some warm cosy colours, and some soft textures. :-) Maybe a photo of your daughter smiling to remind you why you're doing this in the first place? :-)

.....Susan

Well look at the bright side. We get to continue to subscribe to the system for free. :-)

Agree Steveo, but he makes such good arguments, usually that the market "shouldn't" be where it is. I end up becoming very afraid -  just can't help myself. LOL. After all, he does manage a lot of money - he's not just another non-trader permabear opinion. Or is he?

Whenever I get nervous about having a mid-term bearish position, I just read the latest Hussman report. He's usually early, though.

Very nice charts Dpack. Is it market delta? I've never seen the value areas extended across the screen like that. Are they at half-hour intervals? Are they tick charts? Which software do you use? Sorry for the barrage of questions - just that I've been considering getting some market delta software and don't know where to begin.

.....Susan