Posted by skwan1940 on 23rd of Oct 2023 at 09:19 pm
Bitcoin ETF approval does not appear to be the real story behind
what's going w/Bitcoin. Bitcoin as Luke Gromen has been
describing for a couple of years at least already, is the last
functioning smoke alarm telling the truth about inflation and
monetary stimulus (because it is not "politically managed" like the
gold market as Luke described). It is probably starting to
price in the money printer going burrrrr again, this time to
finance our country's deficits by buying treasuries.
Reference this podcast interview and find the 34:46 mark
(Gold & Bitcoin: "The Last Functioning Fire Alarm") where Luke
describes it well:
On The Margin: Luke Gromen: U.S Dollar's Role In The Global Energy
Crisis on Apple Podcasts
Posted by skwan1940 on 23rd of Oct 2023 at 01:35 pm
Maybe because people don't think of stock investing as a
business (I'm talking about the typical Robinhood trader, not
people here). How many people keep a journal of their trades
for the year like they keep track of inventory as if they are
running a store, or how many people think of paying for BPT just as
they would have a line item for professional services or R&D as
in a normal business. If they attached the BPT subscription
as an overhead cost to their trading P&L then that dynamic may
change.
Posted by skwan1940 on 23rd of Oct 2023 at 12:03 pm
potential W bottom- sometimes the simplest answers may be the
best. This would be a classic W bottom if it forms- the
positive divergence is not as obvious on indicators such as RSI but
on the Chaikin money flow indicator it is very obvious.
Posted by skwan1940 on 22nd of Oct 2023 at 07:08 pm
the last STS update says 10/19/23. Also, I noticed
something weird with URA. I have URA in my favorites and in
the STS update email on 10/18/23 (which included other things in my
favorites that triggered), it didn't say URA went long. But
when I look at the table now (with data as of 10/19/23), it says it
went long 10/18/23. The other strange thing is that even
though it is "long" it says the price is "below" the ATR
level. Matt, can you take a look please, thanks. note:
maybe I am misunderstanding the ATR also, is it the same as the
STS?
Posted by skwan1940 on 21st of Oct 2023 at 04:59 pm
Well, not to me, the trend didn't turn up recently. I know
BPT publishes trend following indicators like the $NYSI 9 ema and
the $NYSI stochastics and those didn't confirm an uptrend.
Personally I use something like
13/34/54 EMA crossoversto buy/sell a 50%
allocation to stocks at a time (when 13 crosses 34 and when 13
crosses 54) and those didn't confirm an uptrend. Before I
rejoined BPT this year, I took 8 years off (I was a member years
ago before) to do real estate and this is how I invested during
those years and I was able to do ok by riding established trends.
Of course I never caught the bottom or the top. I think
what we are talking about ultimately is the holy grail of trading
which doesn't exist: when to do mean reversion and when to do
trend-following. Doing mean reversion is harder IMO because
you are a "pioneer" who takes the arrows (you are stepping up the
same time the big boys of Wall Street are) versus being a "settler"
who comes afterwards with your covered wagon to settle the land
(when a trend is established). Matt's mean reversion systems
are a courageous effort because in markets the mean reversion
rubber band can be stretched farther than folks can imagine.
One needs to be mentally tough to do it.
Posted by skwan1940 on 20th of Oct 2023 at 06:20 pm
Everytime this type of thing happens I wonder why I even bother
with the reversion to mean concept. Why don’t I just trust
the old Wall Street adage “the trend is your friend”.
Hopefully this is W bottom on the daily chart.
Posted by skwan1940 on 13th of Oct 2023 at 10:57 am
I searched the BPT website for Luke Gromen and I don't see his
name mentioned before. I have been following Luke Gromen for
years (very savvy guy) and I can say that his ideas on dollar
hegemony, US deficits, etc. have long pre dated those of
Druckenmiller, Zoltan, Tudor Jones, etc. (the people we have
recently seen in the media now making these ideas more popular).
He recently did a RealVision interview (link pasted
here) in which he talked about the Net International Investment
Position of the USA and how it specifically affects the USA dollar
in a way that it has not historically (compared to other fiat
currencies) and how the "cleanest dirty shirt" argument NO longer
works when looking at the dollar compared to other fiat currencies.
It is at
0:56:28 of the
interview.
Posted by skwan1940 on 11th of Oct 2023 at 01:31 pm
I just watched the video. It's awesome. Thanks for
the outstanding work Matt. I feel blessed to be a subscriber
to this service. note: I didn't see the CCI system in the
list, so I assume there are 22 systems, even better than 21!
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Matt, the term you were
Monday October 23rd Newsletter
Posted by skwan1940 on 23rd of Oct 2023 at 10:19 pm
Matt, the term you were thinking of was "compounded"?
Bitcoin ETF approval does not
Posted by skwan1940 on 23rd of Oct 2023 at 09:19 pm
Bitcoin ETF approval does not appear to be the real story behind what's going w/Bitcoin. Bitcoin as Luke Gromen has been describing for a couple of years at least already, is the last functioning smoke alarm telling the truth about inflation and monetary stimulus (because it is not "politically managed" like the gold market as Luke described). It is probably starting to price in the money printer going burrrrr again, this time to finance our country's deficits by buying treasuries. Reference this podcast interview and find the 34:46 mark (Gold & Bitcoin: "The Last Functioning Fire Alarm") where Luke describes it well: On The Margin: Luke Gromen: U.S Dollar's Role In The Global Energy Crisis on Apple Podcasts
podcasts.apple.com
On The Margin: Luke Gromen: U.S Dollar's Role In The Global Energy Crisis on Apple Podcasts
On today's episode of "On the Margin", Luke Gromen Founder & President of Forest for the Trees (FFTT) joins the show for a discussion on the U.S Dollar's role in the global economy. After spending the past number of years outlining his thesis and the importance energy plays in being the global rese…
Maybe because people don't think
On the 78 GDX kiss system it gave a stop ...
Posted by skwan1940 on 23rd of Oct 2023 at 01:35 pm
Maybe because people don't think of stock investing as a business (I'm talking about the typical Robinhood trader, not people here). How many people keep a journal of their trades for the year like they keep track of inventory as if they are running a store, or how many people think of paying for BPT just as they would have a line item for professional services or R&D as in a normal business. If they attached the BPT subscription as an overhead cost to their trading P&L then that dynamic may change.
"I'm certainly willing to have
On the 78 GDX kiss system it gave a stop ...
Posted by skwan1940 on 23rd of Oct 2023 at 12:09 pm
"I'm certainly willing to have these as an added service" - same here
potential W bottom- sometimes the
Posted by skwan1940 on 23rd of Oct 2023 at 12:03 pm
potential W bottom- sometimes the simplest answers may be the best. This would be a classic W bottom if it forms- the positive divergence is not as obvious on indicators such as RSI but on the Chaikin money flow indicator it is very obvious.
the last STS update says
No STS update?
Posted by skwan1940 on 22nd of Oct 2023 at 07:08 pm
the last STS update says 10/19/23. Also, I noticed something weird with URA. I have URA in my favorites and in the STS update email on 10/18/23 (which included other things in my favorites that triggered), it didn't say URA went long. But when I look at the table now (with data as of 10/19/23), it says it went long 10/18/23. The other strange thing is that even though it is "long" it says the price is "below" the ATR level. Matt, can you take a look please, thanks. note: maybe I am misunderstanding the ATR also, is it the same as the STS?
Well, not to me, the
My account has taken huge (embarrassed to say how large) ...
Posted by skwan1940 on 21st of Oct 2023 at 04:59 pm
Well, not to me, the trend didn't turn up recently. I know BPT publishes trend following indicators like the $NYSI 9 ema and the $NYSI stochastics and those didn't confirm an uptrend. Personally I use something like 13/34/54 EMA crossoversto buy/sell a 50% allocation to stocks at a time (when 13 crosses 34 and when 13 crosses 54) and those didn't confirm an uptrend. Before I rejoined BPT this year, I took 8 years off (I was a member years ago before) to do real estate and this is how I invested during those years and I was able to do ok by riding established trends. Of course I never caught the bottom or the top. I think what we are talking about ultimately is the holy grail of trading which doesn't exist: when to do mean reversion and when to do trend-following. Doing mean reversion is harder IMO because you are a "pioneer" who takes the arrows (you are stepping up the same time the big boys of Wall Street are) versus being a "settler" who comes afterwards with your covered wagon to settle the land (when a trend is established). Matt's mean reversion systems are a courageous effort because in markets the mean reversion rubber band can be stretched farther than folks can imagine. One needs to be mentally tough to do it.
schrts.co
$SPX | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
Create advanced interactive price charts for $SPX, with a wide variety of chart types, technical indicators, overlays, and annotation tools.
Everytime this type of thing
My account has taken huge (embarrassed to say how large) ...
Posted by skwan1940 on 20th of Oct 2023 at 06:20 pm
Everytime this type of thing happens I wonder why I even bother with the reversion to mean concept. Why don’t I just trust the old Wall Street adage “the trend is your friend”. Hopefully this is W bottom on the daily chart.
same here. I’m long the
Remember today is OPEX
Posted by skwan1940 on 20th of Oct 2023 at 10:35 am
same here. I’m long the mean reversion systems also
maybe the $NYSI 9 ema
mean reversion systems comments
Posted by skwan1940 on 16th of Oct 2023 at 11:19 am
maybe the $NYSI 9 ema for S&P will go positive today, it seems close
nice glow on the face.
SPX 5 min
Posted by skwan1940 on 14th of Oct 2023 at 01:36 pm
nice glow on the face. now let's get one of you, Matt!
$OVX OVX Crude Volatility looks
OVX Crude Volatility
Posted by skwan1940 on 13th of Oct 2023 at 03:25 pm
$OVX OVX Crude Volatility looks like it will close again today outside of BBands like it did on Oct 9 - Chart
schrts.co
$OVX | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
Create advanced interactive price charts for $OVX, with a wide variety of chart types, technical indicators, overlays, and annotation tools.
I searched the BPT website
This one is important, the USD against all other currencies ...
Posted by skwan1940 on 13th of Oct 2023 at 10:57 am
I searched the BPT website for Luke Gromen and I don't see his name mentioned before. I have been following Luke Gromen for years (very savvy guy) and I can say that his ideas on dollar hegemony, US deficits, etc. have long pre dated those of Druckenmiller, Zoltan, Tudor Jones, etc. (the people we have recently seen in the media now making these ideas more popular). He recently did a RealVision interview (link pasted here) in which he talked about the Net International Investment Position of the USA and how it specifically affects the USA dollar in a way that it has not historically (compared to other fiat currencies) and how the "cleanest dirty shirt" argument NO longer works when looking at the dollar compared to other fiat currencies. It is at 0:56:28 of the interview.
I would like to know
Matt - If I am reading the daily QQQ chart (STS ...
Posted by skwan1940 on 13th of Oct 2023 at 10:33 am
I would like to know this too please, been waiting for long daily signals for the STS tables for SPY and QQQ to show up but they haven't
I just watched the video.
Mean Reversion systems video and deep dive on open systems trades
Posted by skwan1940 on 11th of Oct 2023 at 01:31 pm
I just watched the video. It's awesome. Thanks for the outstanding work Matt. I feel blessed to be a subscriber to this service. note: I didn't see the CCI system in the list, so I assume there are 22 systems, even better than 21!
it appears 2 days ago
OVX Crude Volatility
Posted by skwan1940 on 11th of Oct 2023 at 11:36 am
it appears 2 days ago $OVX closed back inside its BBands after closing out of it
Solar stocks are impacted by
Solar stocks really making a run, even Israeli SEDG. I'm ...
Posted by skwan1940 on 10th of Oct 2023 at 11:54 am
Solar stocks are impacted by the cost of capital (interest rates) so if yields are going to take a breather, should benefit the sector
I remember that too from
mean reversion systems update - no changes, none of the open systems looking to exit yet
Posted by skwan1940 on 9th of Oct 2023 at 05:45 pm
I remember that too from years ago - just curious do you still trade for that hedge fund?
interestingly, the KISS STS went
UNG been a nice move on this puppy
Posted by skwan1940 on 9th of Oct 2023 at 12:01 pm
interestingly, the KISS STS went long UNG on Oct 6th also
couldn't open the link because
Trading View chart
Posted by skwan1940 on 9th of Oct 2023 at 10:48 am
couldn't open the link because it says "please ask the owner to enable chart layout sharing, or to publish it by clicking the Publish Idea button."