I can totally see Daneric's point. The only trouble is
Prechter's marketing efforts. The true story is that Prechter came
out with a "special report" on August 5 with a
great urgencyto note his subscribers that the bear market rally had
reached his minimum target. He mentioned that he's usually early
and he recommended a half short by using leveraged short ETFs
for
aggressive investors. The marketing of EWI was blasting stuff over his
website like articles titled "Prechter stands alone once
again", and on EWI's message board, an answer to FAQs
about why Prechter rushed to come out with that notice
was "Bob thinks something bad might happen to the
market in the next couple of weeks." Hmmm...ok. He then went on
Bloomberg to show all his corrective market callings during this
bear market and now he was calling it again. Marketing, marketing,
marketing...
On August 28, he came out with another "interim special
report" to call the top and recommend a fully short position.
Again, the marketing of EWI ate that up, advertising all over his
website with various tactics on written articles or FAQs.
On September 23, Steve from EWI called the top once more with a
great certainty. They placed the label on their chart and claimed
that the entire bear market rally was over.
During those 3 top callings, they never came out with "urgent
special reports" to warn their subscribers that their analysis was
wrong. The most troubling part was the last few issues of short
term updates done by Steve in EWI. He was so stubborn that 9/23's
top was it; he would manipulate the wave counts to fit his
analysis. That really lost lots of creditability for them.
It's ok to be wrong, but the subscribers deserve a "quick,
emergency kind" of notice when the analysis is wrong just as much
as when a marketing oriented forecaster calls the tops. It's
definitely NOT ok for an analyst to be stubborn and try to alter an
objective wave count to fit his previous top calling
recommendation. I think Steve has heard from his subscribers
enough. His latest short term update from yesterday was more
sobering. He did call another top without explicit excitement. We
will see....
The level of marketing and "rah rah rah" excitement from EWI was
never seen with another EW expert, Glenn Neely. In fact, Neely
claimed to be wrong and explained to his subscribers why in certain
time periods, predictions based on EW are more difficult than other
time periods. His analysis is much more objective. I am sure
Prechter thinks about his own retirement and makes a lot more money
than Neely due to Prechter's marketing efforts, but the bottom line
is that subscribers do not deserve the attitude of "yesterday you
were a prospect; today you are a client".
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Title: comments I can totally see
Posted by doctormike on 15th of Oct 2009 at 06:16 am
I can totally see Daneric's point. The only trouble is Prechter's marketing efforts. The true story is that Prechter came out with a "special report" on August 5 with a great urgency to note his subscribers that the bear market rally had reached his minimum target. He mentioned that he's usually early and he recommended a half short by using leveraged short ETFs for aggressive investors . The marketing of EWI was blasting stuff over his website like articles titled "Prechter stands alone once again", and on EWI's message board, an answer to FAQs about why Prechter rushed to come out with that notice was "Bob thinks something bad might happen to the market in the next couple of weeks." Hmmm...ok. He then went on Bloomberg to show all his corrective market callings during this bear market and now he was calling it again. Marketing, marketing, marketing...
On August 28, he came out with another "interim special report" to call the top and recommend a fully short position. Again, the marketing of EWI ate that up, advertising all over his website with various tactics on written articles or FAQs.
On September 23, Steve from EWI called the top once more with a great certainty. They placed the label on their chart and claimed that the entire bear market rally was over.
During those 3 top callings, they never came out with "urgent special reports" to warn their subscribers that their analysis was wrong. The most troubling part was the last few issues of short term updates done by Steve in EWI. He was so stubborn that 9/23's top was it; he would manipulate the wave counts to fit his analysis. That really lost lots of creditability for them.
S&P closed on 8/5 - 1003, 8/28 - 1039, 9/23 - 1061.
It's ok to be wrong, but the subscribers deserve a "quick, emergency kind" of notice when the analysis is wrong just as much as when a marketing oriented forecaster calls the tops. It's definitely NOT ok for an analyst to be stubborn and try to alter an objective wave count to fit his previous top calling recommendation. I think Steve has heard from his subscribers enough. His latest short term update from yesterday was more sobering. He did call another top without explicit excitement. We will see....
The level of marketing and "rah rah rah" excitement from EWI was never seen with another EW expert, Glenn Neely. In fact, Neely claimed to be wrong and explained to his subscribers why in certain time periods, predictions based on EW are more difficult than other time periods. His analysis is much more objective. I am sure Prechter thinks about his own retirement and makes a lot more money than Neely due to Prechter's marketing efforts, but the bottom line is that subscribers do not deserve the attitude of "yesterday you were a prospect; today you are a client".