I noticed that the STO 144 on the 15 min QID chart crossed above
20 for the first time since Monday's whipsaw. This was on the
weekend newsletter, I believe. Is it another valid
trigger?
This has bothered me as well, and he has done a good job of
explaining why. I imagine that the same principle would
apply to using 240-minute charts, but it probably is not as
significant a difference. Maybe the exchange should
change their market hours to an even number of hours.
Matt, when you show the world markets breaking under their
trendlines, are you suggesting that they are shortable here?
And would you use 2x short ETFs, like BZQ for Brazil or SMK for
Mexico (401k)?
FYI, 40x in 40 years is a 9.8% annual rate of return. This
of course doesn't include the additional interest earned when the
money is out of the market. Does the return include dividends
earned while in the market?
FYI - 88x over 40 years is 11.8% annual rate of return
(compounded).
Does that return include dividends re-invested? I'm
guessing that it doesn't, or maybe I'm not fully understanding how
this would work. I.e. if you're short you have to pay the
dividend, so it all balances out.
Another thing is that if this is really intended for 401k
accounts, then we would have to figure out a way to go short
without actually shorting, e.g. buy SH.
Just to clarify: FAZ is the 3X Inverse of the Russell 1000
Financial Services Index, i.e. Financials, not the general
market.
The volume doesn't seem to be extreme if you look at the history
of it, especially considering that the price has dropped
from 60 to 20 in the last 4 months.
From what I can tell, it looks like the Aroon would re-cross
(bullish) immediately if the SPX hits a new high over
1101.36. If it doesn't do that, it would re-cross
(bullish) in about 2 weeks, unless the SPX hits a low
under 1029.38 first. Just a heads-up.
Very nice system! I hope you don't mind a few
questions: Do you use the SPY chart to trade the SDS?
(This would mean that you scale into SDS as you scale out of SPY.)
Since SDS is 2x, do you trade a half-position (i.e. 1/6 at each
cross-over?) And do you wait for the Close of the day to
place orders for the next morning's open? I might try to do
some back-testing. Thanks.
Maybe we need some standard way of identifying which system is
being discussed! I know that I get confused sometimes even in my
own notes. Maybe Matt or Tom could start labeling the systems
on the Premium Page with numbers or Roman numerals or letters, or
"E" or "S" for EOD or Swing, e.g. "SRS S-II". (There's
probably something better - I'm just throwing this out
there.) Any thoughts?
This reminds me of my wife's story. Her dad was a lobsterman
after retiring from the Coast Guard and after school she would ask
her dad what was for dinner. She would usually then respond with
"Oh no, lobster again?!" Of course now she loves it.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
FYI, Fox Business News just
Breaking New Report: N. Korea torpedoes a South Korean ship!
Posted by twins on 26th of Mar 2010 at 02:07 pm
FYI, Fox Business News just reported that S.Korea is not blaming N.Korea for the sinking ship.
QID anyone?
Posted by twins on 17th of Mar 2010 at 03:31 pm
I noticed that the STO 144 on the 15 min QID chart crossed above 20 for the first time since Monday's whipsaw. This was on the weekend newsletter, I believe. Is it another valid trigger?
Bob in NJ
Stop using 60-minute charts
FYI. Feedback appreciated. http://www.alphatrends.net/2010/02/20/stop-using-60-minute-charts/
Posted by twins on 22nd of Feb 2010 at 04:25 pm
This has bothered me as well, and he has done a good job of explaining why. I imagine that the same principle would apply to using 240-minute charts, but it probably is not as significant a difference. Maybe the exchange should change their market hours to an even number of hours.
Trading World Indices
Video - A look at the World Indexes
Posted by twins on 21st of Jan 2010 at 10:09 pm
Matt, when you show the world markets breaking under their trendlines, are you suggesting that they are shortable here? And would you use 2x short ETFs, like BZQ for Brazil or SMK for Mexico (401k)?
Long-only
Long term pic view - previous post to matt & steve, from doctormike
Posted by twins on 12th of Jan 2010 at 05:41 pm
FYI, 40x in 40 years is a 9.8% annual rate of return. This of course doesn't include the additional interest earned when the money is out of the market. Does the return include dividends earned while in the market?
How about Madoff Plus ?
Ultra Long Term Systems
Posted by twins on 11th of Jan 2010 at 12:56 pm
How about Madoff Plus
? It sounds intriguing. BTW I
added questions to my previous post.
Title: Ultra long systems FYI -
Ultra Long Term Systems
Posted by twins on 11th of Jan 2010 at 12:45 pm
FYI - 88x over 40 years is 11.8% annual rate of return (compounded).
Does that return include dividends re-invested? I'm guessing that it doesn't, or maybe I'm not fully understanding how this would work. I.e. if you're short you have to pay the dividend, so it all balances out.
Another thing is that if this is really intended for 401k accounts, then we would have to figure out a way to go short without actually shorting, e.g. buy SH.
Bob in NJ
Just to avoid any confusion,
BPENER
Posted by twins on 8th of Jan 2010 at 04:46 pm
Just to avoid any confusion, I assume you meant to go long ERX (3X bull energy) instead of ERY.
Title: Fibs on USD 100 isn't
Fibs on USD
Posted by twins on 18th of Nov 2009 at 10:55 am
100 isn't a Fibonacci number; closest ones are 89 and 144.
Title: BIDU System question I'm also
mechanical systems
Posted by twins on 16th of Nov 2009 at 12:51 pm
I'm also wondering how the target and stop loss % were chosen, since they were apparently never hit (from Largest Winning/Losing Trades).
Bob
Just to clarify: FAZ is
FAX VOLUME IS AT AN EXTREME!! more
Posted by twins on 11th of Nov 2009 at 12:01 pm
Just to clarify: FAZ is the 3X Inverse of the Russell 1000 Financial Services Index, i.e. Financials, not the general market.
The volume doesn't seem to be extreme if you look at the history of it, especially considering that the price has dropped from 60 to 20 in the last 4 months.
Bob
Title: Aroon caution From what I
Aroon oscillator broke through the zero line in the 60 ...
Posted by twins on 10th of Nov 2009 at 11:20 am
From what I can tell, it looks like the Aroon would re-cross (bullish) immediately if the SPX hits a new high over 1101.36. If it doesn't do that, it would re-cross (bullish) in about 2 weeks, unless the SPX hits a low under 1029.38 first. Just a heads-up.
Bob
Title: Anomaly? I don't see any
an anomaly today
Posted by twins on 27th of Oct 2009 at 12:18 pm
I don't see any anomaly on your chart. What are you referring to? Thanks.
Bob
Title: vwma Volume Weighted Moving Average,
vwma
Posted by twins on 19th of Oct 2009 at 11:42 am
Volume Weighted Moving Average, available in TD Ameritrade's StrategyDesk, probably others as well. Don't know about usefulness.
Title: EMATS questions Very nice system!
Is anyone here long since march - april?
Posted by twins on 15th of Oct 2009 at 04:46 pm
Very nice system! I hope you don't mind a few questions: Do you use the SPY chart to trade the SDS? (This would mean that you scale into SDS as you scale out of SPY.) Since SDS is 2x, do you trade a half-position (i.e. 1/6 at each cross-over?) And do you wait for the Close of the day to place orders for the next morning's open? I might try to do some back-testing. Thanks.
Bob in NJ
Title: Mech Systems names Maybe we
SRS #2 switched up?
Posted by twins on 15th of Oct 2009 at 03:33 pm
Maybe we need some standard way of identifying which system is being discussed! I know that I get confused sometimes even in my own notes. Maybe Matt or Tom could start labeling the systems on the Premium Page with numbers or Roman numerals or letters, or "E" or "S" for EOD or Swing, e.g. "SRS S-II". (There's probably something better - I'm just throwing this out there.) Any thoughts?
Title: Lobster story This reminds me
Has anyone noticed how cheap lobster prices have become? I ...
Posted by twins on 12th of Oct 2009 at 01:03 pm
This reminds me of my wife's story. Her dad was a lobsterman after retiring from the Coast Guard and after school she would ask her dad what was for dinner. She would usually then respond with "Oh no, lobster again?!" Of course now she loves it.
Title: Ultra ETF tracking Actually it
Leveraged ETF's
Posted by twins on 5th of Oct 2009 at 11:34 am
Actually it is a simple mathematical reason, shown by a simple example:
An index goes up 10% one day and down 10% the next (1.1 x 0.9 = 0.99) > 1% loss
Ultra 2x ETF for above index (1.2 x 0.8 = 0.96) > 4% loss
Ultra inverse ETF for above index (0.8 x 1.2 = 0.96) > 4% loss.
Note that the more volatility, the more tracking error (loss).
Interesting results, especially that the
Battle of SRS Swing systems continues
Posted by twins on 28th of Sep 2009 at 01:34 pm
Interesting results, especially that the highest profit system had the lowest % winners. How many trades occurred in the new system? Thanks.
Bob in NJ
Title: Work-around for Stockcharts non-members Based
A way around the intra day stockcharts problem
Posted by twins on 28th of Sep 2009 at 11:22 am
Based on the previous discussion, I did a little experimenting and found this work-around for non-members of Stockcharts to view the dynamic links:
1. Click on the link to open the page. If it displays a chart, skip to step 4; otherwise if it says "Visit Stockcharts" continue.
2. Click on the URL (address) and hit the Enter key.
3. In Firefox, I then have to click on the Reload button (the circular arrow symbol).
4. Then replace everything up to and including the question mark in the URL with http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?
5. Hit the Enter key.
5. Click on the Reload button to update the chart.
Hope this helps.
Bob in NJ