Posted by pcordeiro on 12th of Jan 2010 at 04:00 pm
Matt & Steve...I was reading through the posts of today
(incl late last night) and see that doctormike had an interesting
one that a few other members (including myself) were curious to
your response. It was almost midnight last night when posted - -was
wondering if you could take a look at it and comment. Thanks so
much!
It was the following, though don't think my copy/past will link
you directly to it.
Posted by beantrader on 12th of Jan 2010 at 04:14 pm
I'm interested in the response, also.
A good post was on Jan 10 at 9:18 pm. subject: Charles
Nenner. Been following him for a couple years (not a
subscriber, just casually.) He's pretty spot on most of the
time as I recall. He lays out the next few years on the
broadcast you can access from the post. He went to all cash
last week.
Well, this is a secular bear market and personally I still think
this could be a large degree bear market rally, but we'll
see. At best it's a cyclical bull market and even if it's a
cyclical bull market, it will need to rest. Just go look back
the 2003 - 2007 bull market, after the 2003 rally, the market
consolidated from Jan 04 - Oct 04 for 10 months before rallying up
to 2007. The point is, even if this is a cyclical bull
market, it is due for a rest/consolidation. At worst, if this
is a large degree bear market rally, then the market would do a lot
more than a consolidation.
however remember that I have long indicator charts as well as a
long term system, which I
discussed over the weekend. It went long on June, when
it goes short, which will be well off the top, that will be
something that I will of course post. It currently has done a
scaleout, but is not short of course. Also I have other
longer term systems planned and indicators, etc
FYI, 40x in 40 years is a 9.8% annual rate of return. This
of course doesn't include the additional interest earned when the
money is out of the market. Does the return include dividends
earned while in the market?
Also from 1961, the Long only system returned 66 times your
money, that is of course without interest. I can't go back
any further than 1961 because the SPX started trading in
1960. This is about 13.6% per year.
no I have no way to count for dividend and I didn't count for
interest when you were in cash. However the interest is a
good point because for the Long only version of the system, you had
a total of 3423 days when you were in cash, so you would have made
interest in that time of course.
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Long term pic view - previous post to matt & steve, from doctormike
Posted by pcordeiro on 12th of Jan 2010 at 04:00 pm
Matt & Steve...I was reading through the posts of today (incl late last night) and see that doctormike had an interesting one that a few other members (including myself) were curious to your response. It was almost midnight last night when posted - -was wondering if you could take a look at it and comment. Thanks so much!
It was the following, though don't think my copy/past will link you directly to it.
Long term picture view
Posted by: doctormikeon the 11th of Jan 2010 at 11:26 pm
I'm interested in the response,
Posted by beantrader on 12th of Jan 2010 at 04:14 pm
I'm interested in the response, also.
A good post was on Jan 10 at 9:18 pm. subject: Charles Nenner. Been following him for a couple years (not a subscriber, just casually.) He's pretty spot on most of the time as I recall. He lays out the next few years on the broadcast you can access from the post. He went to all cash last week.
Well, this is a secular
Posted by matt on 12th of Jan 2010 at 04:35 pm
Well, this is a secular bear market and personally I still think this could be a large degree bear market rally, but we'll see. At best it's a cyclical bull market and even if it's a cyclical bull market, it will need to rest. Just go look back the 2003 - 2007 bull market, after the 2003 rally, the market consolidated from Jan 04 - Oct 04 for 10 months before rallying up to 2007. The point is, even if this is a cyclical bull market, it is due for a rest/consolidation. At worst, if this is a large degree bear market rally, then the market would do a lot more than a consolidation.
however remember that I have long indicator charts as well as a long term system, which I discussed over the weekend. It went long on June, when it goes short, which will be well off the top, that will be something that I will of course post. It currently has done a scaleout, but is not short of course. Also I have other longer term systems planned and indicators, etc
Matt, will any of your
Posted by oreo on 12th of Jan 2010 at 05:40 pm
Matt, will any of your long term systems be available on any other platform than Tradestation? (ie NT or even the lowly StrategyDesk?)
I'm very excited by your
Posted by algyros on 12th of Jan 2010 at 05:12 pm
I'm very excited by your long-term system. Is it going to be available in the Premium Section? If so, do you know when?
Matt, do you have the
Posted by stevedfw on 12th of Jan 2010 at 04:40 pm
Matt, do you have the LONG only results from your new long term system?
Thanks
The Long only is 40
Posted by matt on 12th of Jan 2010 at 05:07 pm
The Long only is 40 times your money since 1970 vs The Long/Short is 85 times your money since 1970, buy and hold is about 13 times your money.
for the long only system:
The average loss is 3% and there were only 3 losing trades
average winning trade is 26%
Average time in trade is 459 days.
Profit factor is 49.5
Long-only
Posted by twins on 12th of Jan 2010 at 05:41 pm
FYI, 40x in 40 years is a 9.8% annual rate of return. This of course doesn't include the additional interest earned when the money is out of the market. Does the return include dividends earned while in the market?
Also from 1961, the Long
Posted by matt on 12th of Jan 2010 at 07:05 pm
Also from 1961, the Long only system returned 66 times your money, that is of course without interest. I can't go back any further than 1961 because the SPX started trading in 1960. This is about 13.6% per year.
I am so good with
Posted by stevedfw on 12th of Jan 2010 at 07:21 pm
I am so good with that! Even in this low/no interest enviroment my retirement plan pays 3.8% interest when I am in cash - where I am now, LOL.
OK so the long/short version of
Posted by matt on 12th of Jan 2010 at 07:19 pm
OK so the long/short version of the system going back to 1961returned 129 times your money vs a buy and hold of 17.5 times your money!
The long only from 1961 returned about 66 times your moneyminus interest you would have gained being in cash.
Not bad...
Posted by burkmere on 12th of Jan 2010 at 07:21 pm
Not bad...
no I have no way
Posted by matt on 12th of Jan 2010 at 05:58 pm
no I have no way to count for dividend and I didn't count for interest when you were in cash. However the interest is a good point because for the Long only version of the system, you had a total of 3423 days when you were in cash, so you would have made interest in that time of course.