Posted by mdschapiro on 7th of Jun 2012 at 12:26 am
You are absolutely right, there are many young cannons out there
trying to outsmart each other, however knowing which way gravity
pulls may be helpful for the little guy, and in the end they can
not make water flow uphill.
Posted by mdschapiro on 6th of Jun 2012 at 10:34 pm
Adding to your thinking: I follow cycles and the window for a
trading cycle bottom was May 21-June 8, and in my mind that is the
only reason we rallied, we found the bottom during that window and
here we go. The intermediate cycle already bottomed and topped in
a left translated way and is next expected to bottom in
the Aug/Sep time frame, also the seasonal cycle (about 1 year in
duration) is also suppossed to bottom around that time frame. From
the point of view of cycles the present trading cycle is very
likely to fail to make a new high and also top in a left translated
manner, if that happens, then we should be looking at a steep
decline into the intermediate and seasonal cycles. If Bernanke is
going to make QE3, is very likely he will wait until these cycles
bottom to do it to make sure he takes credit for the bounce that
will come anyway in the Sep/Nov timeframe just in time for the
USA election. The election in Greece may well be the excuse
everybody will use for this coming trading cycle to top.
Everybody is still very bullish while economic conditions
continue to deteriorate, Europe in recesion, South America just hit
the wall, and so forth, and usually the stock indices are the last
ones to show the reality of the situation.
Looking at GDX during the big fall of 2008, it shows a virulent
2 week rally after which it dropped like a rock, and now I see
a 2 week rally into resistance, and everybody is thinking we are
going to the moon. The fact that Gold just made a 9 year cycle top
is never going to be digested by the gold bugs out there.
Posted by mdschapiro on 31st of May 2012 at 02:09 pm
Hi there, just some inside info from Argentina (I am from
there):
They will not let anybody pay dividends outside the country and
they will default in their sovereign debt sometime next year.
Capital controls are intensifying and they really do not give a
damn about foreing investment. So please be careful.
Posted by mdschapiro on 18th of May 2012 at 02:00 pm
If it forms that inverse H&S it would target the big
declining multimonth trendline at around $48/47.-.
Dollar should decline or ease over the next 2 weeks (trading
cycle) helping gold and gold stocks. It may turn out to be a great
shorting opportunity if it gets there.
Posted by mdschapiro on 18th of May 2012 at 01:48 pm
Yes, it may indicate either that the powers to be that are used
to manipulate opex to their advantage have a lot of internal
weakness or that they quietly own the puts as part of their
preparation for a deflation event.
I remember years ago once they moved the SPX 40 points up in the
last hour of trading... after they scared me of my long.
Posted by mdschapiro on 14th of May 2012 at 01:19 pm
Thanks Matt. I see everybody trying to buy the 50% retrace with
2 touches so far including this morning and if the 3rd touch does
not hold then the 61% retrace at around $35.- seems a good place
where a lasting bounce could take place.
Posted by mdschapiro on 14th of May 2012 at 12:25 pm
Matt: I was wondering what the results are if you remove the
profit target out of the system as it really works as a trailing
stop. So far I stayed short using options on DUST and moving
strikes down waiting for a buy signal and is paying off.
Thanks.
Posted by mdschapiro on 11th of May 2012 at 12:02 pm
Steve: SPY opex max pain for next week is $140.- What do you
think the possibilities are of bouncing up to there ? Lately
monday/tuesday of opex week were bullish. Thanks.
Posted by mdschapiro on 10th of May 2012 at 06:24 pm
I used to be short the Reits in 2007 to 2008 to just before they
crashed, so I missed the collapse. Just think about it, what is
different now to justify the current price versus the situation
when it was in the $20.-. So it seems a matter of time, first to
give the ghost in a deflation event are commodities and commodities
related stocks, then financials and last the general indexes
and a few stocks deemed "safe".
Posted by mdschapiro on 8th of May 2012 at 02:01 pm
CFX had earnings this morning, beat by 2 cents, everything else
in line, it seem they did not like it as the stock is down 5%. I
decided to keep the short and it looks good.
Posted by mdschapiro on 2nd of May 2012 at 03:46 pm
Another issue to consider with the gold miners is that the price
action since the top last year may indicate continuos liquidation
by the mutual funds that normally hold this stocks in anticipation
of a deflation event. Every gold bug is looking at the gold/hui
ration and is thinking the stocks will cach up without even
considering that the price of gold could come down and make the
ratio go up also. Since the first drop the bounces are getting
smaller and that may indicate that they are using the rallies to
sell and lately it seems they are in a hurry to sell. Technically
we are under the 38% retracement and it seems the 61% retracement
offers some significant support, while the neck of that huge top is
around $49 now and the longer we stay under it, the stronger the
resistance will be if we get there. All this just to keep all
options open.
Posted by mdschapiro on 18th of Apr 2012 at 04:27 pm
Good job. It looks like a winner system already, of the 7, 5 are
gaps between 4 and 15 points and the other 2 trended around 10
points on the first move. Now it would be nice to find a common
denominator for exit. Thanks.
Posted by mdschapiro on 18th of Apr 2012 at 12:29 pm
A look at the 4 year daily shows a consolidation under/after
broken support and around the 38% retracement, if it loses the
38% no real support until the low 40's. To keep in mind just
in case.
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You are absolutely right, there
One other item to consider in the tool box...
Posted by mdschapiro on 7th of Jun 2012 at 12:26 am
You are absolutely right, there are many young cannons out there trying to outsmart each other, however knowing which way gravity pulls may be helpful for the little guy, and in the end they can not make water flow uphill.
Adding to your thinking: I
One other item to consider in the tool box...
Posted by mdschapiro on 6th of Jun 2012 at 10:34 pm
Adding to your thinking: I follow cycles and the window for a trading cycle bottom was May 21-June 8, and in my mind that is the only reason we rallied, we found the bottom during that window and here we go. The intermediate cycle already bottomed and topped in a left translated way and is next expected to bottom in the Aug/Sep time frame, also the seasonal cycle (about 1 year in duration) is also suppossed to bottom around that time frame. From the point of view of cycles the present trading cycle is very likely to fail to make a new high and also top in a left translated manner, if that happens, then we should be looking at a steep decline into the intermediate and seasonal cycles. If Bernanke is going to make QE3, is very likely he will wait until these cycles bottom to do it to make sure he takes credit for the bounce that will come anyway in the Sep/Nov timeframe just in time for the USA election. The election in Greece may well be the excuse everybody will use for this coming trading cycle to top.
Everybody is still very bullish while economic conditions continue to deteriorate, Europe in recesion, South America just hit the wall, and so forth, and usually the stock indices are the last ones to show the reality of the situation.
Looking at GDX during the big fall of 2008, it shows a virulent 2 week rally after which it dropped like a rock, and now I see a 2 week rally into resistance, and everybody is thinking we are going to the moon. The fact that Gold just made a 9 year cycle top is never going to be digested by the gold bugs out there.
So everybody be careful out there.
It seems we have the
5 min SPX with comments
Posted by mdschapiro on 6th of Jun 2012 at 03:08 pm
It seems we have the 60 Sto over 80 all day, if continues, will give us a trade for tomorrow at the open.
2014 if true, is an
XG $30M CASH GOLD DEVELOPER RETESTING LOWS
Posted by mdschapiro on 31st of May 2012 at 02:25 pm
2014 if true, is an eternity in Argentina...
Argentina mining
XG $30M CASH GOLD DEVELOPER RETESTING LOWS
Posted by mdschapiro on 31st of May 2012 at 02:09 pm
Hi there, just some inside info from Argentina (I am from there):
They will not let anybody pay dividends outside the country and they will default in their sovereign debt sometime next year. Capital controls are intensifying and they really do not give a damn about foreing investment. So please be careful.
If it forms that inverse
GDX daily
Posted by mdschapiro on 18th of May 2012 at 02:00 pm
If it forms that inverse H&S it would target the big declining multimonth trendline at around $48/47.-.
Dollar should decline or ease over the next 2 weeks (trading cycle) helping gold and gold stocks. It may turn out to be a great shorting opportunity if it gets there.
Yes, it may indicate either
PPO
Posted by mdschapiro on 18th of May 2012 at 01:48 pm
Yes, it may indicate either that the powers to be that are used to manipulate opex to their advantage have a lot of internal weakness or that they quietly own the puts as part of their preparation for a deflation event.
I remember years ago once they moved the SPX 40 points up in the last hour of trading... after they scared me of my long.
Thanks Matt. I see everybody
$HUI WANTS GREEN INK
Posted by mdschapiro on 14th of May 2012 at 01:19 pm
Thanks Matt. I see everybody trying to buy the 50% retrace with 2 touches so far including this morning and if the 3rd touch does not hold then the 61% retrace at around $35.- seems a good place where a lasting bounce could take place.
GDX Renko
$HUI WANTS GREEN INK
Posted by mdschapiro on 14th of May 2012 at 12:25 pm
Matt: I was wondering what the results are if you remove the profit target out of the system as it really works as a trailing stop. So far I stayed short using options on DUST and moving strikes down waiting for a buy signal and is paying off. Thanks.
SPY Opex max pain next week
PPO
Posted by mdschapiro on 11th of May 2012 at 12:02 pm
Steve: SPY opex max pain for next week is $140.- What do you think the possibilities are of bouncing up to there ? Lately monday/tuesday of opex week were bullish. Thanks.
REITS
Nobody saw this coming
Posted by mdschapiro on 10th of May 2012 at 06:24 pm
I used to be short the Reits in 2007 to 2008 to just before they crashed, so I missed the collapse. Just think about it, what is different now to justify the current price versus the situation when it was in the $20.-. So it seems a matter of time, first to give the ghost in a deflation event are commodities and commodities related stocks, then financials and last the general indexes and a few stocks deemed "safe".
CFX short
SPX 15 Simple View
Posted by mdschapiro on 8th of May 2012 at 02:01 pm
CFX had earnings this morning, beat by 2 cents, everything else in line, it seem they did not like it as the stock is down 5%. I decided to keep the short and it looks good.
Another issue to consider with
Gold Stocks and % away from their 200 day MA
Posted by mdschapiro on 2nd of May 2012 at 03:46 pm
Another issue to consider with the gold miners is that the price action since the top last year may indicate continuos liquidation by the mutual funds that normally hold this stocks in anticipation of a deflation event. Every gold bug is looking at the gold/hui ration and is thinking the stocks will cach up without even considering that the price of gold could come down and make the ratio go up also. Since the first drop the bounces are getting smaller and that may indicate that they are using the rallies to sell and lately it seems they are in a hurry to sell. Technically we are under the 38% retracement and it seems the 61% retracement offers some significant support, while the neck of that huge top is around $49 now and the longer we stay under it, the stronger the resistance will be if we get there. All this just to keep all options open.
It seems the market is
FOMC statement
Posted by mdschapiro on 25th of Apr 2012 at 12:44 pm
It seems the market is going to wait for the Press meeting.
SPX 60 period Stoch could
ES 15 Overnight
Posted by mdschapiro on 23rd of Apr 2012 at 08:56 am
SPX 60 period Stoch could be under 20 all day today, providing us with another signal for tomorrow, FED day, usually rallying into the announcement.
Great job in the video,
Weekend Commodity Newsletter April 22nd, 2012
Posted by mdschapiro on 23rd of Apr 2012 at 08:47 am
Great job in the video, no problems here with it.
Lets not get greedy, 10
5 min SPX 60 Stochastic update - TomW1 see my video
Posted by mdschapiro on 18th of Apr 2012 at 04:30 pm
Lets not get greedy, 10 to 15 winners a year on one stock is just marvelous, specially when so far we got no losers.
Good job. It looks like
5 min SPX 60 Stochastic update - TomW1 see my video
Posted by mdschapiro on 18th of Apr 2012 at 04:27 pm
Good job. It looks like a winner system already, of the 7, 5 are gaps between 4 and 15 points and the other 2 trended around 10 points on the first move. Now it would be nice to find a common denominator for exit. Thanks.
You could make a case
GDX comments
Posted by mdschapiro on 18th of Apr 2012 at 12:37 pm
You could make a case for counting that chart as 1) the first move down from the top, then an a-b-c flat 2), and now 3) in progress.
A look at the 4
GDX comments
Posted by mdschapiro on 18th of Apr 2012 at 12:29 pm
A look at the 4 year daily shows a consolidation under/after broken support and around the 38% retracement, if it loses the 38% no real support until the low 40's. To keep in mind just in case.