Posted by mdschapiro on 6th of Jun 2012 at 10:34 pm
Adding to your thinking: I follow cycles and the window for a
trading cycle bottom was May 21-June 8, and in my mind that is the
only reason we rallied, we found the bottom during that window and
here we go. The intermediate cycle already bottomed and topped in
a left translated way and is next expected to bottom in
the Aug/Sep time frame, also the seasonal cycle (about 1 year in
duration) is also suppossed to bottom around that time frame. From
the point of view of cycles the present trading cycle is very
likely to fail to make a new high and also top in a left translated
manner, if that happens, then we should be looking at a steep
decline into the intermediate and seasonal cycles. If Bernanke is
going to make QE3, is very likely he will wait until these cycles
bottom to do it to make sure he takes credit for the bounce that
will come anyway in the Sep/Nov timeframe just in time for the
USA election. The election in Greece may well be the excuse
everybody will use for this coming trading cycle to top.
Everybody is still very bullish while economic conditions
continue to deteriorate, Europe in recesion, South America just hit
the wall, and so forth, and usually the stock indices are the last
ones to show the reality of the situation.
Looking at GDX during the big fall of 2008, it shows a virulent
2 week rally after which it dropped like a rock, and now I see
a 2 week rally into resistance, and everybody is thinking we are
going to the moon. The fact that Gold just made a 9 year cycle top
is never going to be digested by the gold bugs out there.
The types of generic cycles you are discussing are not really
comparable to the precise Fibonacci turn windows I was discussing.
While there is no question that there are many big funds out
there that model the types of loose theoretical cycles you are
discussing into their macro models...They are not the ones out
there accelerating the markets on individual Fibonacci dates, (Or
TD sequence dates etc), and are providing the bread and
butter movements that most success intraday/swing traders here
are following.
Posted by mdschapiro on 7th of Jun 2012 at 12:26 am
You are absolutely right, there are many young cannons out there
trying to outsmart each other, however knowing which way gravity
pulls may be helpful for the little guy, and in the end they can
not make water flow uphill.
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Adding to your thinking: I
One other item to consider in the tool box...
Posted by mdschapiro on 6th of Jun 2012 at 10:34 pm
Adding to your thinking: I follow cycles and the window for a trading cycle bottom was May 21-June 8, and in my mind that is the only reason we rallied, we found the bottom during that window and here we go. The intermediate cycle already bottomed and topped in a left translated way and is next expected to bottom in the Aug/Sep time frame, also the seasonal cycle (about 1 year in duration) is also suppossed to bottom around that time frame. From the point of view of cycles the present trading cycle is very likely to fail to make a new high and also top in a left translated manner, if that happens, then we should be looking at a steep decline into the intermediate and seasonal cycles. If Bernanke is going to make QE3, is very likely he will wait until these cycles bottom to do it to make sure he takes credit for the bounce that will come anyway in the Sep/Nov timeframe just in time for the USA election. The election in Greece may well be the excuse everybody will use for this coming trading cycle to top.
Everybody is still very bullish while economic conditions continue to deteriorate, Europe in recesion, South America just hit the wall, and so forth, and usually the stock indices are the last ones to show the reality of the situation.
Looking at GDX during the big fall of 2008, it shows a virulent 2 week rally after which it dropped like a rock, and now I see a 2 week rally into resistance, and everybody is thinking we are going to the moon. The fact that Gold just made a 9 year cycle top is never going to be digested by the gold bugs out there.
So everybody be careful out there.
MDS...I think you are mixing
Posted by chartboy on 6th of Jun 2012 at 11:17 pm
MDS...I think you are mixing apples and oranges.
The types of generic cycles you are discussing are not really comparable to the precise Fibonacci turn windows I was discussing. While there is no question that there are many big funds out there that model the types of loose theoretical cycles you are discussing into their macro models...They are not the ones out there accelerating the markets on individual Fibonacci dates, (Or TD sequence dates etc), and are providing the bread and butter movements that most success intraday/swing traders here are following.
You are absolutely right, there
Posted by mdschapiro on 7th of Jun 2012 at 12:26 am
You are absolutely right, there are many young cannons out there trying to outsmart each other, however knowing which way gravity pulls may be helpful for the little guy, and in the end they can not make water flow uphill.