Posted by junkmaylbox on 23rd of Jan 2009 at 03:33 pm
rp, Are you going to take your longs into the next week? I
concur with your notes on sentiment. I don't like the gold action
today, it portends trouble. TBT is giving a hammer so far. thanks
for your input!
Because it's the very basis of accounting. An accounting book
must always reflect the value of the assets and liabilities of a
company, should it be liquidated today. The rule protects creditors
and the rest of the society from irreconcilable bankruptcies gone
too far.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 14th of Jan 2009 at 03:36 pm
Matt, is the market likely to go up or down tomorrow? I am
deciding whether or not I should initiate a short position here --
since support at 850 is broken -- or close the remaining one
expecting an oversold bounce from here (6 consecutive down days).
Thanks!
Posted by junkmaylbox on 14th of Jan 2009 at 07:12 am
rp, you might want to pull money out of your IRA by paying the
tax penalty and then treating it as normal cash without all
artificial limitations. An increase on tax rates on IRA accounts is
a definite possibility, when the government begins to use all its
reserves to increase its revenue.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 29th of Dec 2008 at 04:34 pm
cspirit, The same has happened to me on UYM today. I don't see
any lesson in it other than not using the same metrics on a thinly
traded day such as today. I cannot make any money on the long side
of this market, it's just pathetic. Your DXO trade was a rocket, I
used it to offset my losses on UYM today. Good luck with URE!
Posted by junkmaylbox on 29th of Dec 2008 at 04:25 pm
Thanks for the information. I could not find $tick on
StrategyDesk, so I had to ask. I do find it on stockcharts. I'll
have to look up those indexes specifically, they are useful to
know.
I guess it's been a while since we discussed leveraged ETFs.
The "fear" regarding leverage in ETFs is a product of a
failure to understand risk control in trading and a failure to
understand the math of leveraged ETFs.
1) If something is leveraged all one needs to do to control
risk is adjust position size and stops in direct proportion. That
is, if you want to take the equivalent of $100,000 unleveraged
position then take a $50,000 position in a 200% ETF or a $33,333
position in a 300% ETF. To limit losses you would size your stop in
direct proportion to leverage: a $10 stop in the unleveraged
instrument gives you the same protection as a $20 stop for a 200%
and a $30 stop for a 300% instrument (provided your position is
sized in accordance with the above). So via position sizing and
stop selection we can always achieve the EXACT SAME risk as when
using unleveraged instruments. The argument that leveraged ETFs are
more risky than unleveraged ones is a canard.
2) Using a leveraged fund is a much better way of taking any
position than using an unleveraged one. It is actually a lower risk
option with better returns due to compounding (or reverse
compounding in the case of an inverse fund).
Let's look at the math for a 300% inverse ETF.
First, let's say things go well (from a short's point of
view) ... Over a 30 day period the market goes down 1% every other
day and rises 0.5% the days in between. An index starting at $1,000
drops to $922.26 over 30 days. So as a short you are up 7.8% for a
profit of $77.74. Using a 300% inverse fund, we bought $333.33 to
ensure our initial risk is the same as shorting the index. We made
26.1% profit, or $86.95. We beat shorting the index directly by
10.6% FOR THE SAME INITIAL RISK.
Let's say, instead that we made a bum trade ... Over a 30 day
period the market rises 1% every other day and falls 0.5% the days
in between. An index starting at $1,000 rises to 1,082.29 over 30
days. So as a short you are down 8.2% for a loss of $82.29. Buying
the same $333.33 as before we lost 22.0%, or $73.33. We lost 10.9%
less than shorting the index directly.
So whether the trade was a good one or a bad one, the
leveraged inverse ETF was better than taking a position directly in
the index, for the same level of initial risk.
Bottom line ... don't bother reading anything a financial
journalist writes. These people are ignorant.
»
An additional point to note:
new
Submitted by Ian Rayner on Thu, 2008-11-06 16:26.
An additional point to note: the numbers above illustrate
that shorting a leveraged ETF is a stupid move - you will lose more
if the market moves against you and make less if it goes your way
than if you had gone long the opposite fund.
Let's say the market trends up according to the pattern
suggested above (+1%, -.5%, +1%, etc) for 30 days.
If you went long the 300% long fund you would make $86.95
(26.1%). If, instead, you went short the 300% inverse fund you
would make $73.33 (22%). i.e. An 18.6% greater profit going long
the leveraged fund vs shorting the opposite.
If you bet wrong, and you had gone long the 300% inverse fund
you would have lost $73.33 (22%). If, instead, you had shorted the
300% long fund you would have lost $86.95 (26.1%). i.e. A 15.7%
smaller loss going long the leveraged fund vs. shorting the
opposite fund.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Dec 2008 at 03:29 pm
Chris, Is 1.99 your stop on a swing trade or your day trade?
Will you carry your DXO position into the next week? I am tempted
to keep mine, although today's run has been spectacular. Thanks for
your trading comments :-))
Posted by junkmaylbox on 24th of Dec 2008 at 04:25 am
Matt, Could you please make a list of good swing trades to ride
a move down from here (assuming that the next big move is down, not
up) while trading is worthless this week? I am considering SRS and
SMN. Thanks in advance!
Posted by junkmaylbox on 23rd of Dec 2008 at 03:53 pm
Matt, are you referring to the upside or downside in saying
'impulsing'? It is likely to be stuck in this indecision for the
remainder of the week or year, IMO.
"Submitted by Gerald Clifton on Mon,
2008-12-22 23:03.
During the reporting period, gold traded from a low of 789.10 to
a high (intraday) of 842, closing out the week at 841.70. As I
noted last week, the rally came on fresh buying, not short
covering. Open interest jumped from 382,946 contracts (total, a sum
of all the futures contracts traded at the Comex) to 418,216
contracts. This number, unlike the numbers I have been taking off
of the daily Comex price summaries, includes both futures contracts
and options. The fact that new buying came in on top of an
overly-liquidated market, in itself, is very bullish.
The registered speculators (that is, the large speculators --
those trading 200 or more contracts) created much of the move.
Currently, 118 large speculators (up 11 from the last reporting
period) are long 136,916 contracts (up 25,912 contracts from the
prior week), for an average position of 1,160 contracts per bull.
51 large speculators (unchanged from the prior report) are now
short 17,661 contracts (down 4,336 contracts), for an average
position of 346 contracts per bear. Nothing has changed since 2002
-- the large speculator bulls are still running the market. Amid
mysteries, ambiguities, and wild scenarios on both sides of this
market, one fact is abundantly clear -- the big money has been long
for 7+ years, and this group continues to dominate the bidding.
Whatever bullshit about Central Bank (or World Bank, or any other
bank...) selling or serious deflationary influences that will weigh
downward on gold demand circulates about, the numbers don't
lie.
Could this change? Of course. We live with change. But the
shorts will somehow have to take control of these markets. 'Til
now, they have done a piss-poor job of it. The numbers do not lie.
Remember, this is not a blow-off top. Nor was 1030 earlier this
year -- that was a steady climb.
For now, I am also keeping daily tallies of the changes in open
interest, as I noted last week. Friday's sell-off was accompanied
by a drop of 3,103 contracts from the prior day's action (futures
contracts only). Perfect. This is exactly what a $20 drop during a
long-term bull market is supposed to look like."
Posted by junkmaylbox on 22nd of Dec 2008 at 08:41 pm
I don't know if the arguments like that actually matter assuming
that they could be resolved now. They will be resolved later, which
unfortunately is of no assistance for trading _now_.
My hunch tells me that ravun's interpretation of double top at
918 is probably correct, if the market does not break it this month
(which I am fairly certain of). I reckon positioning shorts close
to that would be a low-risk trade.
cspirit, Thank you for posting major support and resistance
levels in other posting. Good luck!
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
long over the weekend?
Posted by junkmaylbox on 23rd of Jan 2009 at 03:33 pm
rp, Are you going to take your longs into the next week? I concur with your notes on sentiment. I don't like the gold action today, it portends trouble. TBT is giving a hammer so far. thanks for your input!
Market breakdown
Gold
Posted by junkmaylbox on 23rd of Jan 2009 at 12:08 pm
We may see a market breakdown as early as Monday next week then.
Insightful comments from both of
Posted by junkmaylbox on 22nd of Jan 2009 at 12:36 pm
Insightful comments from both of you. I existed my shorts at 812, it looks like you were right! Thanks!!
Title: The mark to market
I remember the S&L crisis
Posted by junkmaylbox on 16th of Jan 2009 at 02:32 pm
Because it's the very basis of accounting. An accounting book must always reflect the value of the assets and liabilities of a company, should it be liquidated today. The rule protects creditors and the rest of the society from irreconcilable bankruptcies gone too far.
SMN is a good buy here too
buying starter position in srs
Posted by junkmaylbox on 15th of Jan 2009 at 02:59 pm
If you have money for it. It's under $40 per share.
Perfect predictions
SPX 30 min chart.pngWhat the market is doing right now ...
Posted by junkmaylbox on 15th of Jan 2009 at 02:55 pm
Perfect predictions, Matt and DocOrlando, on SRS and SPX!
UP or down on SPX tomorrow?
SPX 30 min chart.png Yep tons of resistance
Posted by junkmaylbox on 14th of Jan 2009 at 03:36 pm
Matt, is the market likely to go up or down tomorrow? I am deciding whether or not I should initiate a short position here -- since support at 850 is broken -- or close the remaining one expecting an oversold bounce from here (6 consecutive down days). Thanks!
Trading in IRA accounts
Posted by junkmaylbox on 14th of Jan 2009 at 07:12 am
rp, you might want to pull money out of your IRA by paying the tax penalty and then treating it as normal cash without all artificial limitations. An increase on tax rates on IRA accounts is a definite possibility, when the government begins to use all its reserves to increase its revenue.
Lesson learned?
O Man - Lesson Learned
Posted by junkmaylbox on 29th of Dec 2008 at 04:34 pm
cspirit, The same has happened to me on UYM today. I don't see any lesson in it other than not using the same metrics on a thinly traded day such as today. I cannot make any money on the long side of this market, it's just pathetic. Your DXO trade was a rocket, I used it to offset my losses on UYM today. Good luck with URE!
$tick
SP inverse HS
Posted by junkmaylbox on 29th of Dec 2008 at 04:25 pm
Thanks for the information. I could not find $tick on StrategyDesk, so I had to ask. I do find it on stockcharts. I'll have to look up those indexes specifically, they are useful to know.
Market internals
SP inverse HS
Posted by junkmaylbox on 29th of Dec 2008 at 01:52 pm
What is $tick?
Ultra short ETFs
Interesting Reading Regarding Ultra-short ETF's
Posted by junkmaylbox on 27th of Dec 2008 at 11:55 pm
Submitted by Ian Rayner on Thu, 2008-11-06 14:26.
I guess it's been a while since we discussed leveraged ETFs.
The "fear" regarding leverage in ETFs is a product of a failure to understand risk control in trading and a failure to understand the math of leveraged ETFs.
1) If something is leveraged all one needs to do to control risk is adjust position size and stops in direct proportion. That is, if you want to take the equivalent of $100,000 unleveraged position then take a $50,000 position in a 200% ETF or a $33,333 position in a 300% ETF. To limit losses you would size your stop in direct proportion to leverage: a $10 stop in the unleveraged instrument gives you the same protection as a $20 stop for a 200% and a $30 stop for a 300% instrument (provided your position is sized in accordance with the above). So via position sizing and stop selection we can always achieve the EXACT SAME risk as when using unleveraged instruments. The argument that leveraged ETFs are more risky than unleveraged ones is a canard.
2) Using a leveraged fund is a much better way of taking any position than using an unleveraged one. It is actually a lower risk option with better returns due to compounding (or reverse compounding in the case of an inverse fund).
Let's look at the math for a 300% inverse ETF.
First, let's say things go well (from a short's point of view) ... Over a 30 day period the market goes down 1% every other day and rises 0.5% the days in between. An index starting at $1,000 drops to $922.26 over 30 days. So as a short you are up 7.8% for a profit of $77.74. Using a 300% inverse fund, we bought $333.33 to ensure our initial risk is the same as shorting the index. We made 26.1% profit, or $86.95. We beat shorting the index directly by 10.6% FOR THE SAME INITIAL RISK.
Let's say, instead that we made a bum trade ... Over a 30 day period the market rises 1% every other day and falls 0.5% the days in between. An index starting at $1,000 rises to 1,082.29 over 30 days. So as a short you are down 8.2% for a loss of $82.29. Buying the same $333.33 as before we lost 22.0%, or $73.33. We lost 10.9% less than shorting the index directly.
So whether the trade was a good one or a bad one, the leveraged inverse ETF was better than taking a position directly in the index, for the same level of initial risk.
Bottom line ... don't bother reading anything a financial journalist writes. These people are ignorant.
»
An additional point to note:
new
Submitted by Ian Rayner on Thu, 2008-11-06 16:26.
An additional point to note: the numbers above illustrate that shorting a leveraged ETF is a stupid move - you will lose more if the market moves against you and make less if it goes your way than if you had gone long the opposite fund.
Let's say the market trends up according to the pattern suggested above (+1%, -.5%, +1%, etc) for 30 days.
If you went long the 300% long fund you would make $86.95 (26.1%). If, instead, you went short the 300% inverse fund you would make $73.33 (22%). i.e. An 18.6% greater profit going long the leveraged fund vs shorting the opposite.
If you bet wrong, and you had gone long the 300% inverse fund you would have lost $73.33 (22%). If, instead, you had shorted the 300% long fund you would have lost $86.95 (26.1%). i.e. A 15.7% smaller loss going long the leveraged fund vs. shorting the opposite fund.
Chris, Is 1.99 your stop
Love CNBC
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Dec 2008 at 03:29 pm
Chris, Is 1.99 your stop on a swing trade or your day trade? Will you carry your DXO position into the next week? I am tempted to keep mine, although today's run has been spectacular. Thanks for your trading comments :-))
Why DXO is moving down while crude oil is up today?
Been poppin back and forth looking out for Oil, am ...
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Dec 2008 at 02:10 pm
Could anybody explain?
Chris, this is a long-term
USO
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Dec 2008 at 12:46 pm
Chris, this is a long-term play, I assume (i.e., beyond one day).
Swing trade picks on the short side
Posted by junkmaylbox on 24th of Dec 2008 at 04:25 am
Matt, Could you please make a list of good swing trades to ride a move down from here (assuming that the next big move is down, not up) while trading is worthless this week? I am considering SRS and SMN. Thanks in advance!
Upside or downside?
SPX 3 min chart.png nice little move! That DPO was an ...
Posted by junkmaylbox on 23rd of Dec 2008 at 03:53 pm
Matt, are you referring to the upside or downside in saying 'impulsing'? It is likely to be stuck in this indecision for the remainder of the week or year, IMO.
COT report Dec 10 to Dec 16 (a repost)
Posted by junkmaylbox on 23rd of Dec 2008 at 03:48 am
"Submitted by Gerald Clifton on Mon, 2008-12-22 23:03.
During the reporting period, gold traded from a low of 789.10 to a high (intraday) of 842, closing out the week at 841.70. As I noted last week, the rally came on fresh buying, not short covering. Open interest jumped from 382,946 contracts (total, a sum of all the futures contracts traded at the Comex) to 418,216 contracts. This number, unlike the numbers I have been taking off of the daily Comex price summaries, includes both futures contracts and options. The fact that new buying came in on top of an overly-liquidated market, in itself, is very bullish.
The registered speculators (that is, the large speculators -- those trading 200 or more contracts) created much of the move. Currently, 118 large speculators (up 11 from the last reporting period) are long 136,916 contracts (up 25,912 contracts from the prior week), for an average position of 1,160 contracts per bull. 51 large speculators (unchanged from the prior report) are now short 17,661 contracts (down 4,336 contracts), for an average position of 346 contracts per bear. Nothing has changed since 2002 -- the large speculator bulls are still running the market. Amid mysteries, ambiguities, and wild scenarios on both sides of this market, one fact is abundantly clear -- the big money has been long for 7+ years, and this group continues to dominate the bidding. Whatever bullshit about Central Bank (or World Bank, or any other bank...) selling or serious deflationary influences that will weigh downward on gold demand circulates about, the numbers don't lie.
Could this change? Of course. We live with change. But the shorts will somehow have to take control of these markets. 'Til now, they have done a piss-poor job of it. The numbers do not lie. Remember, this is not a blow-off top. Nor was 1030 earlier this year -- that was a steady climb.
For now, I am also keeping daily tallies of the changes in open interest, as I noted last week. Friday's sell-off was accompanied by a drop of 3,103 contracts from the prior day's action (futures contracts only). Perfect. This is exactly what a $20 drop during a long-term bull market is supposed to look like."
I don't know if the
Elliott Wave
Posted by junkmaylbox on 22nd of Dec 2008 at 08:41 pm
I don't know if the arguments like that actually matter assuming that they could be resolved now. They will be resolved later, which unfortunately is of no assistance for trading _now_.
My hunch tells me that ravun's interpretation of double top at 918 is probably correct, if the market does not break it this month (which I am fairly certain of). I reckon positioning shorts close to that would be a low-risk trade.
cspirit, Thank you for posting major support and resistance levels in other posting. Good luck!
The bail-out of automakers contributed
TBT 15 min chart.pngBonds are pulling back today and TBT ...
Posted by junkmaylbox on 22nd of Dec 2008 at 10:48 am
The bail-out of automakers contributed to that change of direction, IMO.