Posted by junkmaylbox on 1st of Dec 2008 at 03:39 pm
Matt or Steve, If we close below 836, a retest of 818 is in the
books, or not necessarily? I'd like to take my ultrashorts home
tonight. Thanks for any insights!
Posted by junkmaylbox on 1st of Dec 2008 at 01:03 pm
Matt, Could you please explain what a PSAR buy signal is? I
don't know how to use that line that you plotted on your chart.
thanks for a clarification!
Posted by junkmaylbox on 28th of Nov 2008 at 10:14 am
steve101, UYM moved from 8.50 to roughly 14.20 this morning. I
would compute the Fibonacci retracements off those numbers
directly. I am going to trade UYM too for a move up.
On a different topic, SMN and SRS are giving buy signals on 9/39
EMA crossover on 5-minute charts. One should use 15-minute charts
for an entry in the system. I bought them at their resistance on
Wednesday close. My target is approximately 50% retracement of the
move from Thursday, _if_ we could get there.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 27th of Nov 2008 at 04:03 am
I recall that during the last week of August-- when traders were
away on a vacation -- the markets topped out. I can see a
similarity between yesterday's advance and the last week of August.
What followed back then was a big decline the following week. I
guess early next week we should see a lot of selling, if my
interpretation is correct.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Nov 2008 at 07:18 pm
Ravun, You posted an interesting chart. It looks like a retest
of the break from the downward channel is in the cards, at 7982,
when the break down from the bearish wedge. That would be close to
61% retracement of the move up from 7492 bottom, which is at
7682.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Nov 2008 at 12:13 pm
I agree with your observations. I tend to enter my positions too
early. so far I see no positive divergence on SRS, 125 seems to be
a solid support for SRS.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Nov 2008 at 11:37 am
What's your target for an up-move on SRS? I am hoping for low
170s when the bearish wedge on SPX plays out to about 810 or 808. I
am long SRS since this moring.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Nov 2008 at 11:32 am
Dodger, Are we retesting the highs from yesterday before moving
lower? I see a bearish channel on the SPX since this morning. The
volume is lower on SPY and URE but no clear negative divergence
yet.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Nov 2008 at 11:26 am
Matt, the game is engineered by the petrolium lobby via tax
incentives and contracts. Too bad that price need to stay high for
a while for a game to be altered. Unfortunately there is no free
market in energy any more :(
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Nov 2008 at 08:13 am
I know. My laptop is lowed down to a stand still when I attempt
to run Ninja trader (memory intense or what?). I was hoping that
someone could have already done it, since SMN is a popular shorting
tool.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Nov 2008 at 02:43 am
Does anyone know single long ETFs that track $DJR and $DJUSBM
indices? I need something to have intra-day information to trade
SRS and SMN. thanks in advance!
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Nov 2008 at 01:55 am
Does anybody have derived settings for an automated trading
system using $DJUSBM (and UYM/SMN)? 7/21 EMA crossover on a
15-minute is okay, 16/34 EMA is slightly better.
Also, could someone explain why closing a position at the
end of the day and opening it in the morning is better than keeping
it from one crossover to another? I heard that Matt found it
through back-testing. It looks like for a ranging market -- in
which we are right now between 740 and 1000 on SPX -- keeping a
position overnight would be no harm. What am I missing if I am
mistaken here?
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Nov 2008 at 03:32 am
My explanation for the drop is the following: traders started
buying calls to make money off the upcoming move up. In this
situation buying calls gives leverage and is a pretty safe trade to
capitalize off the incipient rally. Remember that we had option
expiration on Friday, so new options will not expire for about a
month. Everyone is expecting a bottom this month, so buying calls
today would have been a guaranteed profit strategy.
I would not trust the reading today for the same reason that
Friday's action could be considered suspect. Judging from today's
volume and the close, the market retraced exactly 61% of the
preceding move, and the volume ran lower than on the day before.
The volume was approximately the same as on Thursday.
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He probably referred to 'ordinary'
Normal Pullback?
Posted by junkmaylbox on 1st of Dec 2008 at 05:50 pm
He probably referred to 'ordinary' as defined by dodger.
Matt, Does a decisive break
800 is the last straw for the SPX (62% retracement). ...
Posted by junkmaylbox on 1st of Dec 2008 at 05:49 pm
Matt, Does a decisive break of the 800 level mean an automatic retest of the lows at 742?
Matt or Steve, If we
mechanical systems doing well
Posted by junkmaylbox on 1st of Dec 2008 at 03:39 pm
Matt or Steve, If we close below 836, a retest of 818 is in the books, or not necessarily? I'd like to take my ultrashorts home tonight. Thanks for any insights!
a PSAR buy
S&P 500 5 min chart.png intra day positive divergence setting up ...
Posted by junkmaylbox on 1st of Dec 2008 at 01:03 pm
Matt, Could you please explain what a PSAR buy signal is? I don't know how to use that line that you plotted on your chart. thanks for a clarification!
SPX slow stochatic crossover %K(5) %D(3)
Just about done
Posted by junkmaylbox on 28th of Nov 2008 at 11:53 am
John, What is the buy signal off that chart? I don't understand the signals on it enough to use it. Thanks!
steve101, UYM moved from 8.50
DUG Chart looks like a H&S
Posted by junkmaylbox on 28th of Nov 2008 at 10:14 am
steve101, UYM moved from 8.50 to roughly 14.20 this morning. I would compute the Fibonacci retracements off those numbers directly. I am going to trade UYM too for a move up.
On a different topic, SMN and SRS are giving buy signals on 9/39 EMA crossover on 5-minute charts. One should use 15-minute charts for an entry in the system. I bought them at their resistance on Wednesday close. My target is approximately 50% retracement of the move from Thursday, _if_ we could get there.
I recall that during the
Being short
Posted by junkmaylbox on 27th of Nov 2008 at 04:03 am
I recall that during the last week of August-- when traders were away on a vacation -- the markets topped out. I can see a similarity between yesterday's advance and the last week of August. What followed back then was a big decline the following week. I guess early next week we should see a lot of selling, if my interpretation is correct.
Ravun's chart
Try again
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Nov 2008 at 07:18 pm
Ravun, You posted an interesting chart. It looks like a retest of the break from the downward channel is in the cards, at 7982, when the break down from the bearish wedge. That would be close to 61% retracement of the move up from 7492 bottom, which is at 7682.
What is that gap rule,
Being short
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Nov 2008 at 04:06 pm
What is that gap rule, if you could tell me? Thanks.
SRS
SRS
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Nov 2008 at 12:13 pm
I agree with your observations. I tend to enter my positions too early. so far I see no positive divergence on SRS, 125 seems to be a solid support for SRS.
What's your target for an
SRS
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Nov 2008 at 11:37 am
What's your target for an up-move on SRS? I am hoping for low 170s when the bearish wedge on SPX plays out to about 810 or 808. I am long SRS since this moring.
Dodger, Are we retesting the
All gaps now closed.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Nov 2008 at 11:32 am
Dodger, Are we retesting the highs from yesterday before moving lower? I see a bearish channel on the SPX since this morning. The volume is lower on SPY and URE but no clear negative divergence yet.
Matt, the game is engineered
Gas
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Nov 2008 at 11:26 am
Matt, the game is engineered by the petrolium lobby via tax incentives and contracts. Too bad that price need to stay high for a while for a game to be altered. Unfortunately there is no free market in energy any more :(
It may happen on Friday
Market Comments
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Nov 2008 at 10:23 am
It may happen on Friday instead, to surprise everyone.
I know. My laptop is
ETFs for $DJR and $DJUSBM
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Nov 2008 at 08:13 am
I know. My laptop is lowed down to a stand still when I attempt to run Ninja trader (memory intense or what?). I was hoping that someone could have already done it, since SMN is a popular shorting tool.
ETFs for $DJR and $DJUSBM
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Nov 2008 at 02:43 am
Does anyone know single long ETFs that track $DJR and $DJUSBM indices? I need something to have intra-day information to trade SRS and SMN. thanks in advance!
Clarification on the 60-period schochatic over 80 for 2 days
I - SPX60.pngAlso a possible scenario with this only a ...
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Nov 2008 at 02:20 am
Matt, When you talk about a slow 60-period schochastic being above 80 for 2 days, you are referring to 30-minute charts, I assume?
Settings for $DJUSBM
Basic Materials Falling Wedge
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Nov 2008 at 01:55 am
Does anybody have derived settings for an automated trading system using $DJUSBM (and UYM/SMN)? 7/21 EMA crossover on a 15-minute is okay, 16/34 EMA is slightly better.
Also, could someone explain why closing a position at the end of the day and opening it in the morning is better than keeping it from one crossover to another? I heard that Matt found it through back-testing. It looks like for a ranging market -- in which we are right now between 740 and 1000 on SPX -- keeping a position overnight would be no harm. What am I missing if I am mistaken here?
No. UYM is an ultra
Basic Materials Falling Wedge
Posted by junkmaylbox on 26th of Nov 2008 at 12:54 am
No. UYM is an ultra ETF.
Drop in p/c ratio
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Nov 2008 at 03:32 am
My explanation for the drop is the following: traders started buying calls to make money off the upcoming move up. In this situation buying calls gives leverage and is a pretty safe trade to capitalize off the incipient rally. Remember that we had option expiration on Friday, so new options will not expire for about a month. Everyone is expecting a bottom this month, so buying calls today would have been a guaranteed profit strategy.
I would not trust the reading today for the same reason that Friday's action could be considered suspect. Judging from today's volume and the close, the market retraced exactly 61% of the preceding move, and the volume ran lower than on the day before. The volume was approximately the same as on Thursday.