Posted by jdaswani on 10th of Aug 2018 at 08:24 am
What is the ISE Equity Ratio? How do we extrapolate the meaning?
I am in a meeting, so if it was discussed in newsletter, apologies
ahead of time. But a response here would be much appreciated.
OLED is a long than. They own the patents for OLED technology
and supply into Samsung / LG screens - Samsung and LG have been key
screen suppliers for AAPL, including Iphone X.
Splunk (SPLK) is set to report Q1 earnings tonight after
the close with a conference call to follow at 4:30pm ET; SPLK
reported Q4 results at 4:02pm.
Current Capital IQ consensus stands at a Loss of $0.009 per
share, Revenues at $297.58 mln; Q3 Capital IQ consensus stands at
EPS of $0.09, Revenues at $354 mln; FY19 Capital IQ consensus
stands at EPS of $1.01, Revenues of $1.629 bln
Software solutions provider that enable users to collect,
index, search, explore, monitor, correlate, and analyze data
regardless of format or source. Company has been moving into the
security market and is being viewed as a security play as much as a
data play. Billings will remain a key metric to follow as it helps
provide forward guidance on revenue expectations.
Shares of SPLK hit an all time high of $119 on May
21but have receded a little ahead of tonight's report. The
stock has nearly doubled since it's Q2 results released back in
August of 2017. SPLK has been trading ain a relatively narrow
channel of $111-119 int he two weeks ahead of the
results.
SPLK has not missed revenue estimates in at least five years
and has beaten EPS every quarter since 4Q14.
Revenue growth has accelerated over the past three quarters
hitting 31.6%, 34.3%, and 37.0% last quarter. Channel checks have
been positive according to analysts which will have investors
looking for another beat.
There have been some customers who have voiced concerns over
pricing and with expectations of increased competition look for
this to be a key theme during Q&A.
Comments around the large market opportunity will be closely
monitored. SPLK projected the opportunity to be $62 bln at its
Analyst Day and noted that it intends to penetrate this market in a
number of ways, most notably by leaning into its IoT and Business
Analystics segment.
Piper raised its tgt to $130 from $115 on 5/21; Raymond James
raised its tgt to $127 from $106 today.
SPLK is changing over to accounting standard ASC 606 which
could impact headline and guidance.
Guidance
Q1
Revenues in the range of $295-297 mln
Non-GAAP Operating margin of approx -6.0%
FY19
Revenues to be approx $1.625 bln
Non-GAAP operating margin expected to be approx 11.5%
FY20 Targets- SPLK reiterate its expectations
of $2 bln in revenue by 2020 at its 3/28 Analyst Day.
Q4 Results
Revenues of $419 mln, +37% y/y
Total Billings $622 mln, +44% y/y
Non-GAAP Operating Margins 17.4%
Operating cash flow $146 mln, Free Cash Flow $139 mln.
SPLK has a market cap of $16.7 bln; Float 143 mln, Short
Interest ~8%; Forward P/E 78.7x; Price/Sales 13.2x; TEV/Total
Revenues 12.4x (Peer Avg 8.8x)
Posted by jdaswani on 23rd of May 2018 at 10:54 am
Matt, Let me help out if you don'y mind
Position sizes tend to be arbitrary based on risk tolerance. For
argument sake.
You have $50k trading account, Normally it is not wise to exceed
10% of your portfolio. Can change depending on tolerance and
stops.
So you have $5k per idea, Now if you keep your stop at 5% of
entry, Max risk you take is $250 (Assuming NO GAP risk)
$250 loss on 50K is only .50%
Now if you told me, I am ok losing 1K on a trade, than you can
adjust position size up to 4x, while keeping the stop on.
Alway keep an eye on Volume, You don't want to get too large on
a position if it does not trade at least 100k shares a day.
If volume is low, keep position size small too, you don't
want to get larger than 5% of Average Daily Volume. So if it
trades, 50K shares a day, most you take is 2500 shares. Even if
that is below your calculated position size.
Posted by jdaswani on 17th of May 2018 at 03:26 pm
$TLT looks ugly, but can settup double bottom. Divergence
setting up. The summer rally needs a catalyst, I think its rates,
NAFTA and China deal that will catapult us higher. ST just chop /
digestions from wedge breakout.
Bradley dates only predict turns - doesn't specify direction or
markets. can apply to commodities, equities, debt - doesn't really
matter. I have tracked this for 4 years now and every turn date is
not specific to a particular end market. Friday was the turn date -
so it could very well apply to equities based on move. Time will
tell. I just use Bradley dates to be minndful of major turns. can't
really trade off of it.
Friday Observation - Nothing technical about this post except we
are bumping against 20 dma. Today is Friday and recently the market
fades off into the close ahead of the weekend. Given the political
revelations this week and china trade mission not producing result.
I shorted some SPY @ 265.49. Plan to cover before close of
above the 20 dma.
Interesting observation, I am on the CVS earnings call waiting
for it to begin, Music in the background is soft jazz, I decided to
listen to the newsletter and the audio overlays on top of the soft
jazz, makes the viewing of the newsletter even better. Voice over
the music with the charts works well.
Posted by jdaswani on 17th of Apr 2018 at 12:46 pm
I am a big fan of covered calls. helps u keep fav positions and
collect a dividend. doesnt work if u expecting a waterfall selloff.
I use cash / covered calls mostly for hedging
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
What is the ISE Equity
Meisler
Posted by jdaswani on 10th of Aug 2018 at 08:24 am
What is the ISE Equity Ratio? How do we extrapolate the meaning? I am in a meeting, so if it was discussed in newsletter, apologies ahead of time. But a response here would be much appreciated.
Cveo look at weekly and
CVEO daily, broke out, got busy didnt get a chance ...
Posted by jdaswani on 22nd of Jun 2018 at 02:04 pm
Cveo look at weekly and monthly, even better, I am long owned it for a while now
Guy's its pretty clear.... SPY
Posted by jdaswani on 20th of Jun 2018 at 08:34 am
Guy's its pretty clear.... SPY $275.50 (Tradable ETF) and the $SPX (Index) closed at 2762. If you play the system you buy the ETF, not the Index
$SPYI know system went long
Posted by jdaswani on 19th of Jun 2018 at 04:44 pm
$SPYI know system went long - but keep in mind - today at close we just backtested the wedge breakdown
Market has some resistance here
Posted by jdaswani on 14th of Jun 2018 at 12:56 pm
Market has some resistance here - prolly needs to digest and bounce around till 20dma catches up
OLED is a long than.
Apple asked iPhone supply chain to prepare 20% fewer components, ...
Posted by jdaswani on 8th of Jun 2018 at 09:21 am
OLED is a long than. They own the patents for OLED technology and supply into Samsung / LG screens - Samsung and LG have been key screen suppliers for AAPL, including Iphone X.
Stocks been basing, but under pressure of late
SPLK
Posted by jdaswani on 24th of May 2018 at 03:25 pm
Splunk: Earnings Preview (115.20 -1.44)
Splunk and Nutanix report today
DATA Updated View
Posted by jdaswani on 24th of May 2018 at 03:15 pm
Splunk and Nutanix report today after the bell. Data usually trades off those names during earnings. So you may want to keep an eye on that.
Matt, Let me help out
Trade Ideas comments
Posted by jdaswani on 23rd of May 2018 at 10:54 am
Matt, Let me help out if you don'y mind
Position sizes tend to be arbitrary based on risk tolerance. For argument sake.
You have $50k trading account, Normally it is not wise to exceed 10% of your portfolio. Can change depending on tolerance and stops.
So you have $5k per idea, Now if you keep your stop at 5% of entry, Max risk you take is $250 (Assuming NO GAP risk)
$250 loss on 50K is only .50%
Now if you told me, I am ok losing 1K on a trade, than you can adjust position size up to 4x, while keeping the stop on.
Alway keep an eye on Volume, You don't want to get too large on a position if it does not trade at least 100k shares a day. If volume is low, keep position size small too, you don't want to get larger than 5% of Average Daily Volume. So if it trades, 50K shares a day, most you take is 2500 shares. Even if that is below your calculated position size.
SPX 15Min - Extended out
Posted by jdaswani on 18th of May 2018 at 12:42 pm
SPX 15Min - Extended out TL, we broke for 2nd time today.
JROGER, Look at the CCI
Yield Curve
Posted by jdaswani on 18th of May 2018 at 08:44 am
JROGER, Look at the CCI on this chart, most oversold compared to other similar period with positive divergence setting up.
$TLT looks ugly, but can
Posted by jdaswani on 17th of May 2018 at 03:26 pm
$TLT looks ugly, but can settup double bottom. Divergence setting up. The summer rally needs a catalyst, I think its rates, NAFTA and China deal that will catapult us higher. ST just chop / digestions from wedge breakout.
Same game he plays every
Pres Trump Voices Doubts US Trade Talks With China Will ...
Posted by jdaswani on 17th of May 2018 at 03:24 pm
Same game he plays every time, sets expectations low, so he can take praise when deal happens
Is that bullish or bearish?
Put/call ratio is currently 80%. If it closes under 80% ...
Posted by jdaswani on 9th of May 2018 at 02:10 pm
Is that bullish or bearish?
Bradley dates only predict turns
Newsletter comments - looking for a further high? Matt/Steve did ...
Posted by jdaswani on 7th of May 2018 at 09:29 am
Bradley dates only predict turns - doesn't specify direction or markets. can apply to commodities, equities, debt - doesn't really matter. I have tracked this for 4 years now and every turn date is not specific to a particular end market. Friday was the turn date - so it could very well apply to equities based on move. Time will tell. I just use Bradley dates to be minndful of major turns. can't really trade off of it.
Friday Observation - Nothing technical
Posted by jdaswani on 4th of May 2018 at 12:53 pm
Friday Observation - Nothing technical about this post except we are bumping against 20 dma. Today is Friday and recently the market fades off into the close ahead of the weekend. Given the political revelations this week and china trade mission not producing result. I shorted some SPY @ 265.49. Plan to cover before close of above the 20 dma.
$SPX - 200dma being defended,
Posted by jdaswani on 3rd of May 2018 at 10:16 am
$SPX - 200dma being defended, 2 touches now, if it breaks, we could flush down
Interesting observation, I am on
Tuesday Newsletter
Posted by jdaswani on 2nd of May 2018 at 08:19 am
Interesting observation, I am on the CVS earnings call waiting for it to begin, Music in the background is soft jazz, I decided to listen to the newsletter and the audio overlays on top of the soft jazz, makes the viewing of the newsletter even better. Voice over the music with the charts works well.
AAPL System? Does she go
Posted by jdaswani on 20th of Apr 2018 at 02:02 pm
AAPL System? Does she go long today?
I am a big fan
Any option traders out there who could give some guidance on ...
Posted by jdaswani on 17th of Apr 2018 at 12:46 pm
I am a big fan of covered calls. helps u keep fav positions and collect a dividend. doesnt work if u expecting a waterfall selloff. I use cash / covered calls mostly for hedging