I like getting some hedge here again, I took a first entry position via SPXS after hours when it flashed a new low print for the day at $20.69. 

Such a great tool for calling bottoms. Have you called Guggenheim to see if they have a real time paid access available? They own Rydex if I recollect correctly

Yep, I have long and short exposure now. I sold all hedges when things got extreme into those 3,800s and accumulated long. I just established again today on some for hedges. 

Yes

I took a first amount for a hedge at 4,100. I took another equal amount on the close at 4,158. I'll be watching the first gap lower at 4,057 to start and go from there. 

Amazing week for my long book. I had been accumulating as I posted prior into that deep SPX weakness. Have only needed a few leveraged etfs to play the market. Less is more for me. 

Any chance the SPY system will get long when the market pulls back again? Amazing that something didn't trigger during those extreme lows at 3,810 area. It did a good job of avoiding the big downside. 

I'll put some hedge back on here at the 4,100 area SPX with the two gaps below now at 4,057 and 3,978s. Beautiful rally off the 3,810 lows. Gotta love extreme risk/reward opportunities. 

Great charts, Steve and Kobie. 

In either case, this confirms my view that we are in a seasonal bottoming process, trade low set up type for a bit. Then we get the mother of short covering rallies. Those who are just getting negative now are late to the party and this is a time to be accumulating long now and on any weakness, not selling. 

This is a business, they need to drive it up for a while to get their bonuses, then it can resume downside if warranted. Either way, they sleep well and always win. All that aside, will respect price and take what is given. 

Reminds me of when everyone was bullish and thought markets couldn't drop. Now nobody believes the market can rally ever again. Climb the wall. Fear/Greed at 12 now: https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed 

p.s.-I have no idea on what day or hour the move will begin. It is simply clear the risk/reward says to be buying because the tutes are buying while telling you they aren't. 

A friend and I have had puts on the name for some time now. Tarnished brand that nobody can be proud of. It is an overpriced Hyundai. 

Interesting confidence information here, see the attached photo. Pretty extreme in terms of bearishness right now. 

Fear and greed now at 14, was at 6 prior when we were in lower 3,800s before moving up: https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

One trader/portfolio manager yesterday brought an interesting viewpoint that the Fed will have to capitulate markets instead of having some moment in time where we selloff in a flush for the same reasons. And right now I agree, in this moment in time and at this pricepoint, it should be harder for the market to go down because there is no new information for it to do so. Other than sentiment, if it chooses to relive the same trauma again and again. We saw this behavior with the war prior, it was staying down and down on the war, and inflation, etc. Then there came a point where it just couldn't go down on that news anymore. It unleashed a massive rally from the 4,100s-4,600s. Like 12% just looking at it roughly. 

We know it is bad, we know we have inflation, we know the Fed tightened rates, and is talking tough, and will likely do more. We have had real change though in terms of prices in a short period of time and there is a pocket here where I think people get offsides in believing the market will never rally again. Just like in bullish times, when anyone looks like a genius just buying anything, this is a time where just yelling sell as been rewarded for months. I continue to believe we are in a bottoming process or higher lows, trade lows. Yesterday cracked me up, market went down to 3,909 and didn't fill the 3,901 gap. 

Games being played by computers. This is a casino. I'll play their game though and keep hedging for trades until they change their tune. Frankly exhausting, though that is what the market wants, to exhaust people, and steal their shares and money on both sides. I believe there is psychology built into the algos and technology is being used along with media stories that creates this whole land of Oz. Makes an even better case for just focusing on price and not all the chatter. Back to what matters, what is price saying right now? Well right now, we have a higher low until we don't. Risk/reward. Be flexible when markets change. 

Is Matt's Birthday historically bullish or bearish on the trader's almanac? Do we have data?  

How about the "digital real estate". Someone paid $500,000 to live next to Snoop Dogg in the virtual world. I remember the land of make believe from growing up, though this is a whole new level of ridiculous   

Thanks for the great discussion Matt. I'm open minded to a longer downside in terms of time and price over the next year or two. I would actually prefer it as it would avoid the bigger concerns for the system. The more we can get this sentiment under control the better. I just know my odds are better to accumulate long here on weakness than short given all that has transpired over time. We are about 10% away from the 50 day moving average now. That is significant. The average bear market rally is 7.3% and that would put us up near 4,200 to start. 

$SPX The bottom end of my 2022 forecast range has now hit. I was looking for 3,800 on an overshoot and Friday we got to 3,810. I now think the bearishness is very overdone, just as the bullishness was overdone at 4,800 on SPX where I was selling assets and prior selling at 4,600 before that. Nobody believes the market can rally anymore. Walmart down 25% in 3 days or something, XBI has already bottomed off the $60s and closed at $70.33 on Friday. Crypto is hanging in the range. IWM also a higher low and recently outperforming SPX. 

Tesla finally got unwound and all of tech has been severely shot, even the generals. We are at the bottom of the channel here with positive divergence established on the oscillator. This is the place to accumulate, not sell or short. I think we are setting up for a powerful rally over the next days/weeks that will surprise a lot of people. The 50 day moving average is all the way up at 4,300! That's how stretched things are to the downside. 

Markets love to get new players to short or longs to sell in the hole and stop them out. Friday was a perfect example taking out people who were late to the party or coulnd't take anymore pain. The risk/reward is bullish here.

Worst start to the market since 1932, 7 weeks down in a row, at the bottom of the channel. Nobody believes and it has been near 5 months months now. It isn't that bad in a short period of time. Once sentiment clears, the move will surprised many. Imagine after that and if after a few cuts, the Fed would pivot. Things could pullback then head up again. If you shorted here, you would be buried. 

Could we have a bad beat and go down more? Sure. But the risk/reward is for a rally in the near term. I don't watch every tick because it can cloud judgement and once emotions get involved, it can be tough to be objective. Taking some steps back has my mind open to being flexible when markets change. I think they are about to change. I used the hedges well when things rallied and that is how to place them to get through tough periods. Gotta get them off and not be greedy when they plunge it like they did Friday though. 

All hedged up again into that 3,940s rally. I won't sell any of it anytime soon. Will likely walk away now and enjoy my day. See what the close says later. 

$SPX So realizing we are in a bear market (if we are), I keep asking myself, at what point does the market have a positive week? It has been down for 7 weeks in a row now. It isn't going straight down every week. May be time to punish the late put and bear fund buyers for a while. Then what if after we rally for a week we see a pivot? 

Be flexible IF markets change. Keeping an open mind and working with daily prices. 

Bank of America upgraded WMT and TGT yesterday. They gave WMT a $190 price target. That is saying something considering they have been more middle of the road to the low end of firms for year end targets on SPX. 

ARKK up 2.5% and appears to be flagging, XBI is green. Bitcoin is still up. Risk barometer stuff. 

You can really see the impact of the liquidity issue in the markets here on both sides of the trade. Also, the buyers strike continues. The derivatives guys and pros are looking for a capitulation before doing anything significant. I think that would mean another 5-8% down or so with a big whoosh. 95%+ down. A yesterday type day with even more fear or limit down only to reopen and head down again. That being said, there are a lot of late shorts to this recent party wave. They may need to get wiped out. We are still in options expiration week and earnings. 

My wife wanted to buy some WMT and DIS today, so I grabbed some premarket while they are negative with the market gapping down. Nothing huge. Pretty cool that she is interested in investing, we have an update discussion on what we are doing every quarter. Hey maybe she will be right long term