XLP Dollar cost averaging back into it here. Took a first entry as it touched $70.30. Bouncing off the S1 Fib around $70 and well below the 200 day ma. Great risk/reward long term for consumer staples. 2.5% dividend. The reversion to mean on it has the 9 day ma up near $73.   Needs over wants in this environment, I think money will flow here again. The top 4 holdings all over 10% weightings are PG KO PEP and COST:

https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/funds/the-consumer-staples-select-sector-spdr-fund-xlp

He officially gets in trouble financing wise if Bitcoin loses 95% of its value. His colleteral for funding? More Bitcoin of course.   

It is getting hammered for now, though crypto is here to stay long term, just the big boys will be buying 5-10x more than El Salvador gets to price wise. El Salvador added in the 40s, so it has to go much lower. I'll be looking to buy large cap crypto once it is clear a trade low is in. 

As I figured this morning, came right into the 3,720-40 support area and just a few points shy of the symmetry estimate of 3,729 with 3,734 at the low. I'm now long SPXL on the close for a first entry. Also bought some LABU. 

I-Bond Interest Explained: When Does It Show Up & What's The I-Bond Calculator Formula?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hfHoSijJEk

She does a great job 

Nice trade, Steve. The market will be setting up here for a rally as the Fed meeting gets closer. If I had puts, I'd be considering closing them out as well. Just hard to believe they are going to want to pay them all out by expiration this week. My view is even if we make a new low for the year that it won't go severely lower this year, though I guess we will see what prices say day to day. 

At some point the market will go back up and test the 50 and 200 day moving averages. The market is very stretched away from the 9 day right now at 4,093. I smell a good reversion to mean trade coming at some point. 

Symmetry if similar to the last decline leg would put us in the 3,729 area, that is congruent with the 3,720-40 support level you mentioned in your notes. So in looking for an objective entry, I think I'll just revisit at the market close today. Sometimes having a rest is important to being able to remain objective for me. At that's my opinion, maybe worth a cup of coffee on a good day   

My shorts/hedges are closed as of yesterday into the close. In cash waiting and for the next objective entry. Was just too good having inventory from the recent runup to 4,150-60 to not take profits. If anything I've learned over the years trading is that it isn't about perfection and needing to be right for every single tick. It is about risk management and consistent profits. Keeping an open mind now for whatever the market wants to do and will go with it when it shows me. Time to enjoy the weekend!

That's a good sign near term. He's probably buying overbought energy stocks or telling people he is. Its about where the puck is going, not where it has been. Risk/reward

$SPX Keeping an open mind to a higher low here. "Max Puts" have to be repositioned at some point. No idea where it starts or stops today, though this is showing that the big money has already bought protection. Triple witching coming up one week from today, next Friday. My thought is that the trade will get flipped as gains get locked in from the shorts. Look at the history as the previous trading rallies have happened in this fashion. Money managers need bonuses too. I'll respect price action and play support and resistance levels accordingly. Open minded to a new low, though I just think the fear is getting overblown here and there is incentive to reverse the trade over the next week or so. Possibly sooner than later. 

XBI hod up 4%

That market liquidity works in both directions. Easy to take it up as well as down.  4,176 is the next gap in play on the upside 

SPX bouncing off the pivot area for now. Won't waste time watching every tick. Alerts are set if demand or supply zones are achieved. 

XBI good relative strength again vs the SPX/QQQ

I continue to watch the gaps as well, one below now is at 4,057. Then another at 3,978. They "should" fill at some point. Can't imagine this market can advance even in a bounce wave significantly without them filling in this backdrop. 

SPX Keeping an eye on the two gaps below if things start to head south at 4,057 and 3,978. One view is a chance for a higher low, forming a right shoulder of a reverse h&s pattern (bottoming process). This would send the market back up big in the next wave. The other view is that we are headed down to test the 3,800s or make a new low at some point. There is a gap at 4,176s from Thurdsay's close and 4,220 the 50% fib of this last range on the upside. Nobody knows what will happen or when. 

This was at 6 when we bottomed, now at 27, so some improvement: cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed  AAII also showed a marked improvement as I prior mentioned: aaii.com/sentimentsurvey 

Note: XBI  up 3.55%  IWM down 0.90% on Friday vs. SPX down 1.63% and QQQ down 2.6%. Good signs that some higher risk buying is happening relative to indexes.

I'm skeptical that things are just going to plummet and the bear market be this well telegraphed and known, particularly from the levels it is at now. There are too many people expecting doom and conditioned to sell as it has been a tough environment since the beginning of the year. I pointed out before we had the recent bottom that nobody believed the market could rally again. I agree that it is tough to see how the market can make sustained progress given the sticky inflation and Fed policy. That doesn't mean there can't be a pocket of strength though in between (corp buybacks, Fed policy adjustment/delay, the war ending, etc) before the larger unwinding happens. Sentiment is whacky thing and it has changed some recently. It takes time and usually holds for periods of time. It could take weeks/months. 

I review my plan when the market isn't open, that way when the market is open, I can just execute based upon it. No need to watch every tick for me. Set a few alerts/orders and go on with my life. I consider how I invest my money and my life everyday. Less is more for me. I'm only using two to three instruments maximum in my trading account. Anything else is overkill and too much to manage for me. Our long term investment accounts I run differently and make changes in times of extremes on the buy and sell side to work with allocations accordingly. 

Headed to a celebration tonight in the city of my wife's culture with food, music, and dance. Looking forward to it. Enjoy your Sunday! 

Not seeing how the market can make sustained progress with prices up like this. Fed is really in a jam now. Face into the high winds. Super tough environment. 

We don't really need the real time data anyway, we can still see the spikes and if the market is headed down into major demand zones, we still have a major advantage. It is like getting dealt pocket kings. 

Here's a funny thing to note. Guggeheim strategist Scott M. was making the tour on tv the very days the market bottomed off 3,810 before this rally. The exact days the Rydex Bear funds spiked and confirmed the tradeable bottom. Hilarious shell game the tutes play. He was calling for 2,600 at the time    Only people that buy this are new to the game. 

$SPX if things really get going, there are gaps at 4,057 and also 3,978 that have not filled. If you look at a longer view, that could form the other shoulder of a reverse h&s pattern or of course another view is, the wave completed upward and we are headed back down to test 3,800s. Nobody knows, one level and one day at a time. Risk/reward 

XBI Biotech very strong here vs. the tape up 3.39% currently

Video from May 13th from a long time manager in the space: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/05/13/karen-firestones-top-stock-picks-vertex-pharma-moderna.html

That would be a nice entry for risk/reward and make the first day target to close the gap at 4,176s if it is still there on open. 50 or so points from the entry you mentioned to start. Good mention by Kobie to be careful of a false break too. You guys are on it.