Interesting confidence information here, see the attached photo. Pretty extreme in terms of bearishness right now. 

Fear and greed now at 14, was at 6 prior when we were in lower 3,800s before moving up: https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

One trader/portfolio manager yesterday brought an interesting viewpoint that the Fed will have to capitulate markets instead of having some moment in time where we selloff in a flush for the same reasons. And right now I agree, in this moment in time and at this pricepoint, it should be harder for the market to go down because there is no new information for it to do so. Other than sentiment, if it chooses to relive the same trauma again and again. We saw this behavior with the war prior, it was staying down and down on the war, and inflation, etc. Then there came a point where it just couldn't go down on that news anymore. It unleashed a massive rally from the 4,100s-4,600s. Like 12% just looking at it roughly. 

We know it is bad, we know we have inflation, we know the Fed tightened rates, and is talking tough, and will likely do more. We have had real change though in terms of prices in a short period of time and there is a pocket here where I think people get offsides in believing the market will never rally again. Just like in bullish times, when anyone looks like a genius just buying anything, this is a time where just yelling sell as been rewarded for months. I continue to believe we are in a bottoming process or higher lows, trade lows. Yesterday cracked me up, market went down to 3,909 and didn't fill the 3,901 gap. 

Games being played by computers. This is a casino. I'll play their game though and keep hedging for trades until they change their tune. Frankly exhausting, though that is what the market wants, to exhaust people, and steal their shares and money on both sides. I believe there is psychology built into the algos and technology is being used along with media stories that creates this whole land of Oz. Makes an even better case for just focusing on price and not all the chatter. Back to what matters, what is price saying right now? Well right now, we have a higher low until we don't. Risk/reward. Be flexible when markets change.