I'm double digits positive in my trading account vs. a negative 24% SPX. I don't use options, only 3x etf on leverage is as far as I go. My only instruments are index and sector related.

My wife and I have acquired a lot of our net worth long term by buying extreme weakness and selling extreme strength.  I like that strategy much more than the trading strategy as I prefer to invest my life doing other things. Trading is a nice hobby which carries the bonus of making money. 

I don't mind sharing and find it therapeutic to write up my plan in order that I can just implement it when the market opens. On Tuesday, I'll be checking in at the close to see if I need to do anything or not in terms of my trade in play. We are at a beautiful resort in south GA, heading out on our bikes in a bit. Great trails. 

$XBI Look at that volume yesterday, that isn't small money buying. Big bar. I'm long via LABU (3x etf), bought off the prior support on the big down day: https://schrts.co/EQNVuHUB

Would be nice if it can break out of the range at some point. It will eventually. M&A activity picking up in the space as most of these companies are trading below their cash values, biggest intraday gain since 2020:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3849687-biotech-outperforms-as-deal-making-heats-up 

SPX I've been positioning for a coming rally via two entries in SPXL (the second entry the other day on the big down day was larger than my first, if there is a third it will be larger than my second). I still think the rally is coming though there are a few things that are still difficult I am considering this morning. The timing is the tough part and the part that nobody can predict. 

As far as the six stages of the business cycle, when commodities turn down like they have recently, there is a potential for the all asset classes to come down in the more breath taking stage of a decline. We have been following the progression. There may be debate as to where we are right now. (see attachment 1) 

The second attachment shows a new record, the Dow is down 11 of the last 12 weeks.  

I didn't expect markets to move much with options expiration. This coming week the market should put in a tradeable bottom off a divergent low. From what price, I have no idea. I've been watching that 25% decline from the highs at 3,613 into the major support at 3,550s from a few years back. Maybe this will coincide with the Fed testimony. 

From that level, my thought is that the gaps above get filled from the last decline up to 4,176 where it broke down from (there are 4 of them now just up to there), possibly even heading up to 4,200-4,300. 4,220 has been a number that has come into play a bunch this year. 

Sentiment and momentum can powerful, so there is even a case to test the 200 period over time (currently 4,420), though I'm not that bullish unless we see some other major fundamental news like the war ending or some other indication in the earnings that the damage isn't as bad. Again, just a guess, that is all anyone is doing based on the factors involved. I'm willing to make a call and share my positioning. 

and markets near hod, just what we like to see

XLU looks good 24 RSI, 3.11% dividend yield. Bounce candidate to the 9 ma to start. Even like it as a starting position for investment to dollar cost average into:

https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/funds/the-utilities-select-sector-spdr-fund-xlu

XBI That's not the small money buying in. Check the volume, had a bid under this thing for the last month now. Big day on expanded volume:

https://schrts.co/ZdrDJbwB 

$XLP I like this one too off a divergent low yesterday. The best needs based companies in the world. Consumer staples. Better buying at $69 than $81 anyday. Now a 30 RSI. I'm long 1/3 of my one IRA account balance. Carries a 2.55% dividend as well. 

Needs over wants in this environment, I think money will flow here again. The top 4 holdings all over 10% weightings are  PG KO PEP COST :

https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/funds/the-consumer-staples-select-sector-spdr-fund-xlp 

The coming rally is going to make you grow bull horns   

I corrected my statement, I was writing the index was down 24% from the peak so far and it had made new 52 week lows. We are diverging here, slowly but surely. 

$XBI peaking above the 9 day here, strong channel has been established, I bought support via LABU (3x etf) on the big down day yesterday: 

https://schrts.co/UstWSrZB 

https://schrts.co/SwUXtXJP

$SPX New 52 week lows  and the index is now down 24% from the January peak. Combining this with the 5 out of 7 days intense selling data (historic, record), being at the bottom of the channel and near a 25% correction with yesterdays low. 3,613 would be the number there if it hits, bottom pivot at 3,586. SPX is a 30 RSI here now. 

Means that a countertrend powerful bear market rally is all more the likely. I also like the fact that the market is "setting up" pyscholgoically through the last weeks that no rally will hold, ever again. A bunch of gaps overhead now (4 just from the last range breakdown from 4,176). The 9 day is up at 3,864 right now and 13 day at 3,945. XBI up 5% today so far as a risk barometer. 

No idea on the timing, though I will continue to make decisions at the close. I have two entries right now on SPXL (3x etf long), my second one a bit larger than my first as I prefer to not do options. If I need a third that is fine, scale to protect. No fear, no fomo, the risk/reward says bullish. 

BREAKING: Retail is unable to sell options/delayed fills, due to a broker-wide issue   -Cheddar Flow

Many Brokers are having issues with option spreads right now   The bid is above the ask price  -Cheddar Flow

"Fed's Bullard says soft landing "feasible" for US and Europe"-Reuters

3,613 is 25% off the highs. Still the bottom pivot too that's been mentioned as well 3550s. I'll be taking a second entry via SPXL at the close. Oz will decide when and what the market does. Eventually a reversion to mean is coming. Risk/reward.  

SPX I think many have been conditioned to be bearish now and assume rallies, even large ones can't happen. 

What if I said the market could rally 10-20% off the bottom here with no problem? Even after an inverted yield curve. There is a case for a big pocket of strength before things top. That can be the order of things and has been in the past.

We are in a bottoming process right now. Likely some more turbulence with options expiration and orders coming in, though once it passes we also get buybacks coming in and it can go higher just like it went lower. What if the war were to end? Yes there have been some layoffs though the overall labor market is strong. 

The short trade is long in the tooth. The Fed has acted and will act again. Those wanting to sell any rally may find they can't enter as easily again and have left a lot on the table.

3 gaps above to start and the 9 day sitting at 3,970. 4,017 gap area looks reasonable after the 3,900 gap. 4,050 comes to mind as a previous area. There is another gap at 4,176. 

20-25% corrections happen throughout history. I have no trouble getting bearish when it is warranted. The risk/reward right now is to be bullish. Climb the wall of worry, one day at a time? Keeping an open mind.

First gap above isn't until 3,900 on SPX, the next after that is 4,017. The 9 day ma is 3,970. Lots of room to go higher over time. Looks like a tradeable bottom to me for a while. Really like that the gap filled before it went up. The 275 area QQQ gap filled prior too before this move up. IWM is leading , QQQ,   ARKK risk barometer showing much higher, XBI as well up near 4%. All the stuff you want to see. 

nice trading Steve, way to execute your plan!

ARKK Empire state building leap view. New ticker WRTOF for 99% of her investors. 

I agree and think if they would only do 50 the market would see a big capitulation downward. 75 would likely be some rally after an impulse down intially, and I think 100 is a tradeable bottom. Good news is that you can now buy a more expensive cup of coffee with my advice   

Sets up much better now that we filled that overnight gap. If the Fed raises 75 basis points, I think the market can put in a tradeable low and have a major push toward the 50 day. One day at a time of course. We have three gaps above and the 9 day is at 4,014 which coincides with the 4,017 gap.