SPX I've been positioning for

    Posted by fundamentalvalues on 18th of Jun 2022 at 08:02 am

    SPX I've been positioning for a coming rally via two entries in SPXL (the second entry the other day on the big down day was larger than my first, if there is a third it will be larger than my second). I still think the rally is coming though there are a few things that are still difficult I am considering this morning. The timing is the tough part and the part that nobody can predict. 

    As far as the six stages of the business cycle, when commodities turn down like they have recently, there is a potential for the all asset classes to come down in the more breath taking stage of a decline. We have been following the progression. There may be debate as to where we are right now. (see attachment 1) 

    The second attachment shows a new record, the Dow is down 11 of the last 12 weeks.  

    I didn't expect markets to move much with options expiration. This coming week the market should put in a tradeable bottom off a divergent low. From what price, I have no idea. I've been watching that 25% decline from the highs at 3,613 into the major support at 3,550s from a few years back. Maybe this will coincide with the Fed testimony. 

    From that level, my thought is that the gaps above get filled from the last decline up to 4,176 where it broke down from (there are 4 of them now just up to there), possibly even heading up to 4,200-4,300. 4,220 has been a number that has come into play a bunch this year. 

    Sentiment and momentum can powerful, so there is even a case to test the 200 period over time (currently 4,420), though I'm not that bullish unless we see some other major fundamental news like the war ending or some other indication in the earnings that the damage isn't as bad. Again, just a guess, that is all anyone is doing based on the factors involved. I'm willing to make a call and share my positioning. 

    So far so good, pretty

    Posted by fundamentalvalues on 28th of Jun 2022 at 08:18 am

    So far so good, pretty much bottomed following my post. Now watching for the other two gaps to fill 4,017 and 4,176 over time. After that maybe even working up to 4,200-4,300. 4,220 is a number that has come into play a lot this year. All stated in my original post from June 18th. 

    ..heard crickets at the time because Bitcoin was crashing initially over the weekend..had a friend texting me that it was going straight to 10,000 and giddy about his puts. It recovered and the market never went lower. Even some gaps up held and I believe they will fill eventually, though it just isn't going to be now. All that being said, I will change if the markets change. I have one statement on my white board in my office "Be flexible when markets change". Still one level at a time monitoring for me. I set notifications for price areas I'm interesting in and will just be checking in on the market closes now. Not expecting much and some of the move higher needs to rest a bit. Enjoy your day! 

    Appreciating you being willing to

    Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 18th of Jun 2022 at 09:36 pm

    Appreciating you being willing to share.  What is your performance YTD?  

    I'm double digits positive in

    Posted by fundamentalvalues on 19th of Jun 2022 at 08:19 am

    I'm double digits positive in my trading account vs. a negative 24% SPX. I don't use options, only 3x etf on leverage is as far as I go. My only instruments are index and sector related.

    My wife and I have acquired a lot of our net worth long term by buying extreme weakness and selling extreme strength.  I like that strategy much more than the trading strategy as I prefer to invest my life doing other things. Trading is a nice hobby which carries the bonus of making money. 

    I don't mind sharing and find it therapeutic to write up my plan in order that I can just implement it when the market opens. On Tuesday, I'll be checking in at the close to see if I need to do anything or not in terms of my trade in play. We are at a beautiful resort in south GA, heading out on our bikes in a bit. Great trails. 

    Amazing results. Pls keep sharing

    Posted by arun on 21st of Jun 2022 at 01:14 am

    Amazing results. Pls keep sharing your broad market views and any stocks ideas too. Curious how you size positions when you trade ? Do you go with 3-10% max rule ?

    I use Matt's calculation for

    Posted by fundamentalvalues on 28th of Jun 2022 at 08:40 am

    I use Matt's calculation for position sizing. I calculate a dollar amount that I'm willing to risk and enter my positions that way. 

    Here is the direct link to that education: https://bpt-videos.s3.amazonaws.com/trade_to_win/trade_to_win.html

    Also, take a look at the rest of the education that is provided on the website here: https://breakpointtrades.com/education/

    I became a member because I wanted to learn from those more experienced than myself with results to back it up. I remain a member because being around everyone here makes me better. I have my views though I'm willing to be wrong in trading and in life because it will eventually happen. This is another important big lesson. Willingness to be wrong and change my view if needed has improved my results. As is preached here often: Protect, Monitor, and Adjust. 

    Finally, I used to overtrade and watch the screen all day. The first thing I did before coming back to smaller timeframe trading is I would only take action when the systems took action. Exactly as the alerts were sent out. This kept me from selling a good position too soon. Moves take time to materialize and it can be uncomfortable sitting in a trade with drawdown, though its rare to get a swing trade perfectly to the nose on entry and exit. If someone can do that consistently my hat is off to them. I certainly cannot try to call a top or bottom in price, though I can apply supply and demand principles to improve my risk/reward proposition. 

    This post this morning is me preaching to myself, so I hope in some way it has answered your question and helped you as well. I appreciate you. 

    I definitely appreciate your thinking

    Posted by watcdy on 28th of Jun 2022 at 09:12 am

    I definitely appreciate your thinking out loud with us .

    Wise words!

    Posted by kobie on 28th of Jun 2022 at 08:47 am

    Wise words!

    Good to hear.   We

    Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 19th of Jun 2022 at 11:06 am

    Good to hear.   We all have to find the investing path that works for us.  I’ve basically stuck to Matt and Steve and have posted the results befor.e.  It seems like you and Steve/Matt are all looking for al tradeable bottom.  You are buying indices and bio.  Steve is developing his list.  Matt systems are long.  Assuming everyone is right, only question is wheee is the bottom.  


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