There is a lot of talk of runaway inflation, though my greater
concern is what has to be done to bring down inflation to the Fed
target number. If they really want inflation at 2%, we have a long
way to go from here even if it has peaked. And that will mean lower
stock/asset prices over time eventually.
I'm not in the camp that we crash this year though. If we did
make a new low (my guess would be the old bottom in October deal),
I think the 3,500 area would be reasonable and then it stays up
into year end.
I bought some SPXL back yesterday after the close when it went a
bit lower. Also nibbled on some LABU end of day to add to my
remaining shares I bought in the $4s, similar to what the system is
doing adding to longs it had from lower prices. Protect, monitor,
and adjust.
Was just thinking, someone showed that Fed assets chart when we
got the rally it was clear they were buying. Wonder if it will show
they are buying today as well to hold things up. I'm betting it
does. This market can get easily moved in both directions. Just
takes the biggest purse to control the tape.
My thought about inflation is similar to yours (I believe): Even
if inflation cools, all that means is that the rate of price
increase (year over year comparison) slows but prices remain high.
Just like at the gas pump, prices are quick to rise when
circumstances dictate, but are slow to come down. Cost of
living has ratcheted up and will likely remain high for some time.
How stocks react to that scenario I don't know.
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There is a lot of
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 29th of Jun 2022 at 08:13 am
There is a lot of talk of runaway inflation, though my greater concern is what has to be done to bring down inflation to the Fed target number. If they really want inflation at 2%, we have a long way to go from here even if it has peaked. And that will mean lower stock/asset prices over time eventually.
I'm not in the camp that we crash this year though. If we did make a new low (my guess would be the old bottom in October deal), I think the 3,500 area would be reasonable and then it stays up into year end.
I bought some SPXL back yesterday after the close when it went a bit lower. Also nibbled on some LABU end of day to add to my remaining shares I bought in the $4s, similar to what the system is doing adding to longs it had from lower prices. Protect, monitor, and adjust.
Was just thinking, someone showed that Fed assets chart when we got the rally it was clear they were buying. Wonder if it will show they are buying today as well to hold things up. I'm betting it does. This market can get easily moved in both directions. Just takes the biggest purse to control the tape.
My thought about inflation is
Posted by RichieD on 29th of Jun 2022 at 09:20 am
My thought about inflation is similar to yours (I believe): Even if inflation cools, all that means is that the rate of price increase (year over year comparison) slows but prices remain high. Just like at the gas pump, prices are quick to rise when circumstances dictate, but are slow to come down. Cost of living has ratcheted up and will likely remain high for some time. How stocks react to that scenario I don't know.