Housing situation. The photo is from a friend regarding the rental market in Texas. 

Here are some comments from another friend in Miami and that market for ownership:

The average house selling price is above 500k.. typically 3-4 bedrooms are 800k and decent over 1M.. I got here about 5 yrs ago and house that were 300-400k are now close to 1M.. it’s nuts… professionals can’t afford to buy.

AAPL has a $157s gap below after touching the trendline above today and a doji close, 75 rsi. 

I'm going purely on facts, we haven't balanced a budget in how long? Why are we in this situation? 

Our family serves active duty. 

We need to seriously clean house. The entrenched party heads aren't able to do what needs done. Both sides.

My favorite vehicles, labd, labu for trading. 

I haven't met one long term investor (everyday passive) concerned now that it has recovered some because "it always comes back" and "patience is a virtue" and "don't worry it will all work out." 

The same people will call for the government heads when it tanks again. No personal responsibility. Plays out again and again. I do hope it doesn't tank because many will be hurt and may not recover quickly if at all.

People will elect a new President and the cycle continues. Meanwhile the spending never ends. Doesn't matter who gets elected, they all spend. 

That's making an assumption they want the market up. I'm not convinced PPT is driving this move at all. Don't worry when it tanks,,they will say sorry on tv. Sort of 

Matt should ask you about the falling wedge now, you're in a good mood haha

New taxes and spending. Backdrop just keeps improving. Wow wee

Investment plan adjustment: I just reduced our other IRAs, larger one I reduced and it is now 35% in stocks. I took all the inventory from 3,700s to current prices and sold it. I like doing this when markets are strong because with mutual funds, prices are secured at the close. I don't want to wait for markets to reverse because when it does, it will likely go down faster than it went up. I like selling some with wind at my back. 

New allocation:

10% Nasdaq 100

5% IWM

8% S&P 500

12% TRowe Health sciences for a total of 35%. A bit more conservative with the health sciences in there. Change will apply at the close.

I have a relatively smaller one that I also reduced to 40% in stocks, same thing, took all the lower inventory and sell on close. Here is that allocation:

10% S&P 500

30% TRowe Health Sciences

a 73s RSI long term here is just incredible to me given the backdrop we are in. If we go higher and hit some other levels, I may do some more. At least I can go take my week off at the end of the month now and not be concerned what markets are doing. My trading account will be in cash as well. I hit a new high again there today, may even exit early if a big woosh happens somewhere over the next week. 

I really feel fortunate to be able to act now and know we will be ok no matter which way things go over the remainder of the year. 

Disney is raising the prices of annual passes after just raising prices in other businesses they own. 

Amazon confirms it will raise seller fees for the holidays  -Walter Bloomberg  

Neither sound like inflation is easing much to me. 

LABU trim and trail now, just hit $12.10 so far from $11.60s entry

SPX 4,297.14 gap above from yesterday's close. Will it be filled or is this market finally going to crack for a pullback?

4,207 is the first gap on the downside. There are supports before then of course though it aligns nicely with the long term 9 ma. 

Long LABU $11.60s objective try

SPX re: GAPS 

I've been using gaps for more than a few decades now in my asset management and I've never seen a rally with this many gaps up without a retracement. I looked back and could not find one historical reference of the current conditions. And in this backdrop it makes it even more questionable. 

If this continues, September isn't looking good. At some point a reversion to mean or something much greater is very likely. Have a look at the AAPL chart as another example. Closed at a 76 long term rsi yesterday. Riding the 9 ma since $130s to $173s. Nothing normal about that move at all. But hey, it will do what it does. I'm prepared either way. Oh and QT doubles on September 1st, perfect timing. Heavy reduction in mortgage backed securities while housing has been declining. 

73 RSI here long term. 8 gaps below. Psychology being well trained by keeping it up. As Aerosmith says, its the same ol story, same ol song and dance. The mind will say its different this time. I reject that notion and act on risk/reward proposition. I often have to do what I don't want to do in order to position myself for the best outcome going forward. The market will try and get me to focus on crumbs and give up my meal, though I'm not going for the okey doke. 

So technically, I should have said it didn't hold above the 50% retrace. That was what was most important to me. It was a pinnochio move at that time. Of course much different environment. I remember it vividly. I remember the bottom on SPX being 666 & change. I was saying, lets just call it 667   

This came from my meditation this morning: The acceptance of imperfection is freedom. 

WMT big earnings beat and guidance. Up 4.37% in premarket last time I looked. 

I know for sure, the 2008-2009 period didn't exceed the 50% fib. It was only a 9-10% rally before the bigger move down into March 2009. 

Insights Live: Which Way Now? A Conversation with Howard Marks:

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/insight-video/market-commentary/insights-live-which-way-now

Good discussion on risk posture considerations. I always keep in mind that I don't have to be all in or out, I can adjust on a percentage basis. 

In our household case, there is a percentage that we will adjust in extreme conditions. Buy when things are very oversold like the June lows period and sell when things are very overbought like the period we are in now. The rest we hold and continue to accumulate, unless we hit new highs, then we would look to possibly adjust some more into those areas. I've worked it this way for years and it has kept us out of trouble and less volatility. We prefer a smoother ride, everyone is different. 

I personally prefer to not have to care about if the market is up or down during a given day. I value this more and more the more I'm alive. I can invest more time into what I value, relationships with those I care about, learning, and exploring new places/interests. 

The one asset I value the most that isn't often discussed is: TIME 

Time is limited and that never changes, so I have to plan accordingly for my use of it. 

The only thing that will fix inflation is severe deflation in multiple areas. The runaway spending and debt that has continued must be paid for. Eventually the risk of lower stock prices goes way up. It is going to be a matter of time and when sentiment changes in my view. And when the people behind the curtain change the machine settings from buy to sell.

I'm using the strength to reposition for the balance of the year. I was buying in 3,600-3,700s. And I want to be selling some 4,200-4,300s. No matter what happens I'll be in good shape either way. Risk/reward.