Steve, Where should I mail your 4,227 hat? I promise to not attach bull horns to it   

Fantastic job mapping this market. It is not easy to do. Incredible work! 

I have made the decision to decrease our stock exposure by 13% on the market close today in our one IRA. This will be a reduction of 7% in large caps and 6% in small caps.  It has been an incredible run since the 3,600s. We will continue to dollar cost average on a monthly basis and maintain our stock allocations in funds otherwise. 

New allocations after this change:

55% cash 

10% fixed income

25% large cap

10% small cap 

Total=100% 

Based on the close today, I'll be making a decision in regards to our other larger IRA. 

SPX There are now 8 gaps below counting today. Long term RSI is at 69 long term which is in range for about as high as it gets. Certainly respect price and trend, though a pullback is very much overdue. Sentiment is powerful in both directions. Going to see how today closes, it may be time to consider selling some long term inventory that I've accumulated from 3,600s up to current prices in IRAs, etc. I just updated our numbers this morning for net worth and just no need to go backward in any material way. I know everyone is different, I prefer a smoother ride. 

Certainly have and not perfect by any means in calling the top on price. I trade in pieces and have done very well on it, though a key to my trading is to get away from perfect and keep eating meat. I hear you point out often in the newsletter and just as recent as last night on balancing that mindset and being flexible in your plan. 

In the past I would have been focused on not getting every penny out of every share. That is the wrong way of viewing things. The right way is looking at my account balance rising and rising, appreciating the consistency. And remembering there is always another trade. Thanks for all you do here Steve and everyone in the community. 

I posted this in the $90s on the stock. It traded $123s in premarket this morning so far. Plenty of room to make money and just keep trailing it up. Very timely upgrade by BofA on June 23rd. The RSI was at 29 then and nobody wanted it. 

Now take this in contrast, some analysts are just jumping onboard and upgrading the stock today increasing price targets. RSI will be in the 70s this morning (very overbought comparatively). Good opportunity to sell into the party. I'll continue to trail up and capture gains:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3871446-disney-surges-as-guggenheim-upgrades-as-strong-q3-gives-greater-confidence-in-outlook

I agree, I've been converted over the last years that none of this information matters or is the reason the market does this or that. Stories are made up everyday for why it went up or down. So many metrics and it is a waste of time on a net basis for me. I'm focusing on one thing, price. Because price is all that matters. Risk/reward of taking a position on an instrument at a certain price, etc. Buy supports and sell resistances. Saving my energy for life other than the market. Keeping it simple. 

I would offer that we never had a bear market. Bear markets require time and price. 6 months isn't a bear market and it didn't stay down. This needs to last a year or two to qualify for me and make new lows. If it doesn't do both, it was a correction and part of a topping process.  Those are the current facts.

So nobody knows and endless debate is worthless. All that matters is being appropriately allocated for the future based our family's tolerances and needs. 

sold some more in the $119s on the retest upward afterhours..not sure how it goes higher, though I kept some in case it does

Great report: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/10/disney-dis-fiscal-q3-2022-earnings.html

Steve, Could you include Disney in the newsletter tonight? Thanks

Fed's Kashkari Calls Idea Of Rate-Cuts Early Next Year 'Unrealistic'  - Much More Realistic Fed Will Raise Rates, Leave Them There Until Inflation Well On Its Way To 2%  -LiveSquawk 

Sounds dovish to me. Very bullish. Also bullish is taking on more and more debt. QT doubling on September 1 bullish too. Lots to like against a 67 rsi long term right now into a major supply zone. 

I got some Oceanfront property in Arizona..if you buy that I'll throw in the QE for free.   

DIS earnings after the close tonight. Still trailing up a position from the $90s. At 28x forward earnings, I'll sell at least half before the close, maybe more. Of course, everything is bullish so earnings estimates don't matter anymore. I'm playing numbers on a chart.

SPX even my step tracker agrees with the 50% fib. Play what the casino gives. No rhyme or reason to any of it, just numbers and that's all it has to be. Buy supports, sell resistances. 

Shelter the single biggest component of CPI and expense in general for a household, good point on it being majorly understated:

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1501915743696396289

The updated figures are: (@ +5.7% YoY) with rents up 12.4% over the last year and home prices up 19.7%. Which means that the true inflation rate is much higher than 8.5%."

Fading this by selling 80% long inventory I bought yesterday into that spike. They can feel free to take it higher, I have long term stocks if they can do it. Yesterday's spending bill so bullish for inflation too. I don't see how filling a gap with another gap is bullish at all. This market is illiquid and about to get even more so September 1 with additional QT. 

US CPI YOY ACTUAL 8.5% (FORECAST 8.7%, PREVIOUS 9.1%)US CORE CPI YOY ACTUAL 5.9% (FORECAST 6.1%, PREVIOUS 5.9%)

ARKK That part where you talked about Cathie in the newsletter had me rolling. "I don't know who her technical people are?..God Bless. Best Wishes"   

The one thing that cracks me up the most about her is not only does she buy falling knives though her analysis that she presents is actually bearish for her portfolio. Trading vehicle only type situation, though not really neccessary when one can just buy a leveraged etf with a much better risk/reward profile. No need to have her making it even harder. 

Thanks Steve, I got the 5 day test too today so I peeled off more of my short and added more back long at lower prices. Not bad . See what tomorrow brings. I kept a good bit of hedge still as I acquired it cheap. Still a great risk reward for my entries. 

I'm in good company here, buy supports, sell resistances. As you said today, it doesn't have to be all or nothing. Most of my trades are in pieces. 

The "Education" tab on he website.

4,091s and 4,072s are both gaps in that zone below. 

Nice 10% move LABD, took some off. Still hoping for a move more to the 5 and 9 day on longer term chart. Replaced some LABU I sold in $13s in $11.50s.

We have a gap and go to the downside at the moment. No telling if it holds or not. A definite pause at a minimum here in front of inflation data tomorrow. 

J.P. Morgan's Kolanovic tilts to commodities from stocks:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3869711-jp-morgans-kolanovic-titls-to-commodities-from-stocks