Yep, just filled 3,678, only 3,585 left now from Friday's close 

SPX Those gaps at 3,678 and 3,585 continue to be of concern. No bottom long term until those fill in my view. No idea on the timing. 

That being said, I'm wondering if this grinds out into year end and that market doesn't give the major sell/capitulation that most are looking for. Maybe the gaps fill, maybe they don't, but nothing significant either way. It would cause the most pain for bulls and bears to just keep grinding in a range. Keeps both sides out of position on the day to day. I can see the market filling the gaps to test the lows just as easily as going to the 4,110 area before year end. While I'm thinking of it, maybe both will even happen.

SPX long off the premarket lows, let's see 

Still trading, trimming against shorter term resistances 

Appreciate you Steve, I've been scalping/daytrading til a bigger opportunity sets up, no idea where it starts or stops atm

First gap 3,678s if they get froggy

I've elected to sell the other half of my SPXL against that 38% fib. 3,787 area. It can go higher, though with my targets achieved against a short term resistance and two gaps now below, that's a good spot for me. All cash again in my trading account after a really nice trade. 

SPX Perfect example of extreme bearish sentiment getting corrected for. I wouldn't be surprised if it grinded out longer than expected. Gotta be careful of getting "beared up" the same as "bulled up". That said, still don't like that this all happened on two gaps up and don't see how those hold over time. Gaps are 99.9% of the time traps. No idea on the timing of course. 

SPX 3,719 and 3,757 gaps both filled. Next on the upside is all the way up at 4,110.41 where things broke down from. I was looking for 3,757 or higher as previously posted. Still have 1/2 of my SPXL position here. 

There are two gaps below now as well, one at yesterday's close 3,678.43 and the 3,585s Friday close. 

That's what I'm doing, selling half at the close and keeping half open. Let's gap it up again tomorrow morning.

I Bond bill proposes increase on annual limit for purchases ($30,000 per person):

The Savings Security Act talks about the I-Bond purchase limit legislation that was recently announced by Democratic Senator Mark Warner of Virginia & Republican Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska.

The annual I-Bond limit is currently $15K inclusive of what can be purchased via a tax refund.

The Savings Security Act (if passed) would increase this annual I-Bond limit to $30K at a time when hard-working Americans need it most to protect their savings against inflation.

Good to see Senators working together to get something done. Kudos to them and here's praying the bill passes. Limits were higher in 2002-2007, at $30,000 before, they were reduced in 2008 to $5,000. And then increased again some years later to what they are now.

Here is a short video that explains what is happening. She is a really good follow for updates and tutorials related to guaranteed bond investing/information:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dBYfMzNJEg

SPX Gaps 3,719 & 3,757 on the upside and a load more after that..

Downside gap at 3,585, Friday's close.

Entered again on the dip against support near day lows, now trailing. Hope they run em' a few days. 

Credit Suisse, Citi cut 2022 year-end target for S&P 500

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-suisse-citi-cut-2022-102029748.html

SPX SPXL I'm electing to sell the premarket highs with half of my allocation. Great move from the close on Friday where I purchased it. If it goes higher, I have the other half left and also long term inventory that will benefit. 

SPX (Trading journal notes): To crash or not to crash, why even ask the question. I skimmed through some comments a friend made regarding markets and some on here and I'd like to just get the long term bearishness out of the way. I'm already prepared for the SPX to test the corona virus lows. I don't ultimately believe it will happen if I had to guess, though I'm currently prepared allocations wise if it did. 

I'm currently watching the 9 year moving average and it was previously just below 3,200. Other areas I'm watching shorter term are of course the recent low from Friday, though more interested in the 30% from 4,818 highs last year. That would come in at 3,373. We already hit the 25% off mark at 3,612. Markets tend to overshoot on the down and upside, so I think the 3,000 area targets being suggested by Morgan Stanley and others aren't out of the question, though I also think it is worth asking the question what if some things go right. Sentiment overshoots as well, so when it does turn, it can and often does during a particular day and never looks back. Look at all the past crises over the years. Yes, it is true that monetary policy has often been supportive of prices, so take it into consideration. I actually think 2023 is setting up to be a better year than thought after possibly whatever events need to occur. If we do have a capitulation, it would be a tremendous buying opportunity, possibly for years, and the beginning of a new bull market. 

When it comes to strategy, I have no emotions, I'm buying and selling based upon risk/reward, then waiting. I've lived through several crashes now over 25 years or so investing. They have been opportunities to build wealth. This is no different. It is important to also remember that this is a business and those controlling things have to make a spread on their inventory. Eventually the world goes forward and markets go back up. If they don't, then there will be larger concerns than how my stocks are doing. And we are prepared, with guaranteed bonds, cash, and plenty of other levers to pull that aren't related to performance of the stock market. 

That being said, as I mentioned Friday, I have two entries now currently along side the QE 3.2 system (for trading purposes). I've made no new long term investments in my other strategy, though still do have some exposure from assets I bought at lower levels years back. I sold some of my allocation to equities at 4,800, 4,600, and most recently 4,300 after the fantastic rally. What is needed in the times right now is context. I look at my actual figures and we are fine, no need to panic, and definitely no need to read endless articles or watch endless market videos, look at charts for the millionth time, etc. One review is enough. I'm looking forward to putting more cash to work in equities long term when it becomes clear it is time to do so. Prepared and going back to life while things play out. 

T Bills ladder: I'll be putting some of our cash to work in T Bills as previously mentioned. We will be doing some 13 week bills at this point with the rates being over 3.3% at last glance. Just an estimate until the upcoming auction is complete, though it looks like that will be the case. They can be automatically reinvested for up to 2 years. No limit on purchase of the T Bills, unless you have over $10 million to put in haha. 

Since we already have some I Bonds, those will serve as the longer term part of our ladder as they continue to renew rate wise over and over. The plan is to hold the I Bonds until the 5 year maturity, though it is good to know we can access the cash anytime after the 1 year of holding them. Yes, there is a 3 month interest penalty if we would do that, though with rates being what they are, currently 9.62% on those it would be minor and our rate would still crush what we would be getting elsewhere for guaranteed return on cash. We also have available cash in our brokerage account. So for our personal situation we have a good plan for now. 

Another benefit of buying the T Bills is that I get some cash out of our traditional banks and directly into safety of being backed by the full faith and credit of the US government. FDIC insurance is fine, though if there were any bank disruptions, I'm sure there would be some delay on cash. Someone who likes details I'm sure will point out a difference between the two. Likely all ok in the long run, it is just peace of mind for me. 

I've also taken some cash out of the bank and have it on hand here (I've practiced that ongoing since some years back). These crisises, either real or perceived seem to be happening more and more frequently over the years. I'm not a good survivalist, so you won't see me on any of those shows anytime soon. I do have some friends who are pretty good, so I'll buddy up with them if the time comes. There, good time to get all the boogeyman stuff out of the way, it is October after all. Enjoying the day. I can only do what I can do. Living happy, not watching news (as usual), and spending my time on my priorities. 

SPX I'll be taking the 2nd entry with the QE 3.2 system. My instrument will be SPXL, the 3x etf. This is for my trading account. 

Still no changes to my investment account strategy..haven't bought anything new and will remain patient. I do have some inventory still from lower levels invested. 

Have a great weekend everyone! 

From my trading journal notes 09/30/2022: 

Markets do a great job getting people short in the hole. Same when things go up a lot and getting suckers to buy the top. 

This should really only happen to newbies in the market though. It is made to look complicated with all the daily distractions. It's frankly simple though, those controlling the game need to make a spread on their inventory. This is why sticking with a plan is so effective as it reduces the likelihood of being chopped up by noise and fluctuations. It comes back around once the fleecing is over, just gotta wait for it.  Buy demand zones, sell supply zones. Weakness/strength, that simple. No fomo ever.

I'm stoic, I enter at defined times when odds are in my favor, then close the screen, and check back at the close to see how it went. In the meantime, I can enjoy life, not waste my energy, etc.  

I use the same strategy with swing trades as I do investments, just different time frames. The majority of our long term wealth has been made acquiring big fear pricing, 2009, 2018, 2020, etc. type markets.  It will be the same with this market if a major capitulation would come. Nobody knows if it will or not, so wasting time wondering is fruitless.

We are in the Smoky Mountains today, just beautiful, Gatlinburg, TN. Life is good, enjoying it with my wife. 

I appreciate you all..read the board in the mornings and near the close. 

Looks like a higher low is still possible too based on current action. Nice call on the trade Steve. Let's see

Where were they in mid August when that was more reasonable? I give them 2nd place only to Goldman. Just laughable.