I curbed my enthusiasm and added 6% to the small allocation there in the F fund. Another reason is that there is a G fund earning on average about 3.36% now without any principal risk, we have a significant amount allocated to that fund, about 51% of the account. 

I listed my other allocations prior in large and small cap, currently 24% and 10% respectively in this account. My last sells for equities as you know were at 4,800, 4,600, and 4,300 round numbers respectively. The stock exposure I still have invested is from the corona crash buys, so plenty of room, and we cost average each month 50/50 between large and small caps. 

AGG The aggregate bond market was positive yesterday. A 27 long term RSI, I think a very reasonable place for a cost average purchase for the long term. Discount to NAV advantage in this capitulation. My wife's retirement plan has something like this with the F fund. We have a small amount in it, I'm going to add 10% to the allocation:

https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/goto/snapshot/performance.jhtml?symbols=AGG

https://www.tsp.gov/funds-individual/f-fund/

AGG: https://schrts.co/afRktbQx

So I'm looking where I can possibly benefit from areas that have been potentially put on sale. Rather than just focusing on TLT's major decline (and rates being up, up, up), why not look to where there could be an opportunity, longer term. I purchased muni bonds years ago when Meredith Whitney was making the tour on why there would be catastrophe. It ended up being one of the best fixed income investments of my life. Many, many years of a bull market. I was buying the highest quality at extreme discounts. At the time, I remember it was the most unpopular allocation. 

Even in this case, I'm sure I'll hear all about why this doesn't make sense and I'm catching a falling knife. My answer to that is, I'm cost averaging at the best discounts, and it is a small percentage of my overall allocation of one account. I'll likely look back and wish I had bought more. It has often been the case and unless the world is ending, it will be again. I'm taking a multi-year view here on this allocation. The investment grade bond market is chiefly important to world business. This too shall pass. Unless the aliens land, then nothing to worry about anyway. Part of running a long term portfolio is making decisions during times of great turmoil. I remember when everyone thought interest rates couldn't go up. That was the time to get the refinance, buy the house, etc. Now look at rates. There are times to take advantage while the season permits one to do so. Have a great weekend! 

TLT SPX Was just looking at how these traded together at the June tradable bottom and then TLT topped at the beginning of August before SPX did a few weeks later. 

Today TLT is at major oversold levels/fresh lows with SPX going higher. TLT seems to be suggesting that stocks may not be done going down long term. Still have the open gap at 3,583. 

No idea how high the market goes shorter term or timing for any of this. There is an area from 3,800-3,900 or so that looks very doable over time. 4,000 or 4,110 gap into year end if things don't capitulate lower are something to keep an open mind about. 

I took a first entry in SPXS with the system after hours to hedge my longs. 

All the best Bandit!

Can you call Matt and see where the system are at lol

Still waiting to hear as well. I have to buy options by 4pm if doing so.

Systems Signals update? What do the systems currently look like for a new trade possibility? Thanks

Sometimes I literally can't figure out where we are in the waves. It usually seems like it is not clear until it is already well in progress where we are.

I've learned to sit out certain periods being around you guys here. Waiting for one of those strong waves to trade (wave 3) or a reversion to mean system trade signal. I often take notes and it does sink in over time, then I apply to my plan. 

You weren't kidding when talking about this being a more complex pattern, chop city

Ya, we are mixing topics here. Someone asked about T Bills and they are taxed as I mentioned federally, not state, or local. I Bonds are totally different and as Digi said, not taxed until redeemed. 

If wanting them for your IRA, contact your broker and see if they do it. And yes, on personal funds, would be taxable in the year paid, federal, not state, or local taxable. It should be a 1099-INT

The phone lines are open this Saturday (it is rare they are open for calls) if you need to call them 844-284-2676from 7am-12pm (noon) central time. If calling, do it earlier the better when they first open should be less chances of a longer hold time. 

I've had no issues with the system, sorry to hear you did. 

Sure thing, and you thought I just tracked SPX cash gaps   

Speaking of SPX cash gaps, that 3,583.07 gap is still open below, possibly supportive of your flat scenario playing out and/or retest of 3,500 at some point, etc. 

Everything is done online these days: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/

You can also buy T Bills through your broker, I've never done it as I like everything in one place with my bonds directly on the Treasury Direct site. Link a bank account, fund, and done. 

Sure, glad to help!

If you purchase before the end of October, you still get the 9.62% interest rate for the next 6 months. Based on recent data, it appears I Bonds purchased in November will be somewhere around 6.5% and anything that is renewing for the period of months following until the next rate announcement May 1, 2023. 

So if wanting to puchase to get the 9.62% for six months, I'd do it sooner than later. Like everything else in the world, there are supply chain, staffing, and other concerns. Better to be some days early than trying to buy at month end and not getting them issued in time. 

Even if you decided you didn't like the interest rate after 12 months , you could always cash in and still have a 6.51% rate for 12 month. That is net after the 3 month interest penalty. Anyone not holding IBonds for 5 years, gives up the last 3 months interest. I don't know about you, but I can't find a 6.51%, 12 month cd anywhere. 

If wanting something shorter term and/or concerned limits on your deposit, then go with T Bills:

The last 4 week were 3.3%, 13 week were 3.9%, and 26 week were 4.4% respectively. Once again, no bank can touch these rates. Our cash is out of the bank except what we need in checking accounts to run our regular business and left a little extra in case we needed to get to cash. But mostly I don't hold any huge cash at my bank anymore as my next 4 week maturity is just around the corner. The Treasury direct site is easy to use and you can even have them automatically reinvest for up to 2 years. If not, the interest and principal just goes back into your bank account after maturity. Probably more information than you wanted haha

Market Observations: I find the text comments very helpful for a summary on what is going on in the market, with systems, etc. Particularly when I'm just following the systems and not actively trading otherwise, I often don't get into the newsletter, and this is all I need to stay current. Also the levels that Steve posts for upside and downside help me a lot as well as the intraday work here with charts. Thanks for the great support and information. 

Thanks. So given that these are reversion to mean trades, I would think at the money puts would be a reasonable consideration given the possibility of a 2nd or even 3rd entry and ultimately looking for downside in the markets. 

I'd appreciate if you would share what put options you would consider if we get the strong close today. I've seen some using either a month or two out on the expirations. If the instrument is SPY, which strike price would you be using? I'm getting my feet wet in options (starting small). I've traditionally used 3 x etfs for all my trades. I want to keep this as simple as possible, no spreads, nothing complex. Straight up  put options. Thanks to anyone who replies.