Posted by frtaylor on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 03:54 pm
I took the 8-day simple ma (not ema) and multiplied by 6.5 (=
52) and plotted that on my hourly chart. That's what's
showing 177.50 or so. Is that not the way to look at the
8-day when using the hourly? Plotting on GLD.
Posted by frtaylor on 21st of Aug 2011 at 08:15 pm
You have to sign up for the free videos (click on "free chart
videos"). The video on the front of his webpage is just a
promotion.
I can't remember how much of a retrace, but certainly there's
resistance at the recent highs around 1205. Dan was looking
for a short term snapback, like just over the next week or so.
Not a multi-week prediction.
Posted by frtaylor on 21st of Aug 2011 at 04:27 pm
Fitzpatrick has a very good, and much longer than usual, free
video out today. In short, he's bullish very short term for a
snapback rally, w/ stops below the low of Aug 9. You can sign
up for it on his site, stockmarketmentor.com.
Posted by frtaylor on 21st of Aug 2011 at 10:11 am
Very interesting, and longer term GDX may be due for a move up.
His charts are monthly, so that's a longer time frame than
what I'm looking at.
Two articles by Cory Mitchell that are less sanguine about
impending vertical moves for GDX:
http://vantagepointtrading.com/archives/4681 and
http://vantagepointtrading.com/archives/4519 GDX usually
leads gold, so the divergence indicates the move in gold is
fear-based and not fundamentals-driven, meaning gold should pull
back rather than GDX exploding up. Note that he was wrong
about when the correction should occur, stating wrongly that it had
already begun back in late July. He should have paid
attention to Matt's wave count!
Some musings on the possibility of a bigger pullback in GDX than
we saw on Thursday. Unlike others here, I am not a seasoned trader,
so don't take what I write as authoritative or tradable. Your
feedback is appreciated, however!
A few things are leading me to think GDX will pull back,
possibly this week:
1. gold is parabolic and likely will pull back soon;
2. market momentum is to the down side (short term rallies
notwithstanding), putting pressure on gold mining stocks;
3. on the daily and 60 min GDX charts the 60, 3 slow stochastics
are oversold;
4. there is neg divergence in the MACD on the 60 min chart (but
not on the daily);
5. a bearish rising wedge is evident on the 60 min and daily
charts;
6. the GDX:GLD ratio is close to breaking my uptrend line
(admittedly I only have two touches on my trendline);
7. On Friday GDX broke the resistance line (neckline?) shown on
chart 27 & 28 of the Wednesday Aug 17 newsletter, but it was a
weak breakout, just barely clearing the line then falling back
below it for the remainder of Friday. (The volume was low on the
retreat, however, and there was a late day break of a flag on
increased volume, so we could see higher prices Monday -
Tuesday.)
Well, starting to wonder how "nice" it is now! Just
sitting back and waiting, not too happy about the actual numbers,
but still have faith in the system and in the likelihood of a
bounce.
It's nice just to be in the SPY trade during this big drop, and
not have to worry about whether to go to cash, go long or short a
bounce etc. For a guy like me, the drop has been pretty easy
to stomach as I have only the SPY trade on, and it'll either be a
winner or a loser, and the likelihood of getting crushed is low, as
I scaled in w/ the Multi entry system.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
I also covered at 171,
Gold Stocks Comments
Posted by frtaylor on 24th of Aug 2011 at 02:15 pm
I also covered at 171, and am holding my GDX.
I took the 8-day simple
Comments on Gold
Posted by frtaylor on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 03:54 pm
I took the 8-day simple ma (not ema) and multiplied by 6.5 (= 52) and plotted that on my hourly chart. That's what's showing 177.50 or so. Is that not the way to look at the 8-day when using the hourly? Plotting on GLD.
currently the 8-day ma is
Comments on Gold
Posted by frtaylor on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 02:41 pm
currently the 8-day ma is at 177.50. Could breach today.... I'm short near today's high w/ a stop above it.
Yep, here in Arlington it
rumers of earthquake on east coast possible dc
Posted by frtaylor on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 01:59 pm
Yep, here in Arlington it was pretty strong!
Earthquake here in Arlington, VA!
Posted by frtaylor on 23rd of Aug 2011 at 01:58 pm
Man, I haven't felt one of those since we lived CA. VERY unlpeasant!
Would you add a little
ES 30
Posted by frtaylor on 21st of Aug 2011 at 09:55 pm
Would you add a little commentary? Does the move up over the last three or four hours suggest anything to you relative to tomorrow's action?
You have to sign up
Dan Fitzpatrick's free video - informative
Posted by frtaylor on 21st of Aug 2011 at 08:15 pm
You have to sign up for the free videos (click on "free chart videos"). The video on the front of his webpage is just a promotion.
I can't remember how much of a retrace, but certainly there's resistance at the recent highs around 1205. Dan was looking for a short term snapback, like just over the next week or so. Not a multi-week prediction.
Dan Fitzpatrick's free video - informative
Posted by frtaylor on 21st of Aug 2011 at 04:27 pm
Fitzpatrick has a very good, and much longer than usual, free video out today. In short, he's bullish very short term for a snapback rally, w/ stops below the low of Aug 9. You can sign up for it on his site, stockmarketmentor.com.
On #3, I meant overbought,
GDX: pullback coming?
Posted by frtaylor on 21st of Aug 2011 at 04:25 pm
On #3, I meant overbought, not oversold.
Very interesting, and longer term
GDX: pullback coming?
Posted by frtaylor on 21st of Aug 2011 at 10:11 am
Very interesting, and longer term GDX may be due for a move up. His charts are monthly, so that's a longer time frame than what I'm looking at.
Two articles by Cory Mitchell that are less sanguine about impending vertical moves for GDX: http://vantagepointtrading.com/archives/4681 and
http://vantagepointtrading.com/archives/4519 GDX usually leads gold, so the divergence indicates the move in gold is fear-based and not fundamentals-driven, meaning gold should pull back rather than GDX exploding up. Note that he was wrong about when the correction should occur, stating wrongly that it had already begun back in late July. He should have paid attention to Matt's wave count!
GDX: pullback coming?
Posted by frtaylor on 20th of Aug 2011 at 07:36 pm
Some musings on the possibility of a bigger pullback in GDX than we saw on Thursday. Unlike others here, I am not a seasoned trader, so don't take what I write as authoritative or tradable. Your feedback is appreciated, however!
A few things are leading me to think GDX will pull back, possibly this week:
1. gold is parabolic and likely will pull back soon;
2. market momentum is to the down side (short term rallies notwithstanding), putting pressure on gold mining stocks;
3. on the daily and 60 min GDX charts the 60, 3 slow stochastics are oversold;
4. there is neg divergence in the MACD on the 60 min chart (but not on the daily);
5. a bearish rising wedge is evident on the 60 min and daily charts;
6. the GDX:GLD ratio is close to breaking my uptrend line (admittedly I only have two touches on my trendline);
7. On Friday GDX broke the resistance line (neckline?) shown on chart 27 & 28 of the Wednesday Aug 17 newsletter, but it was a weak breakout, just barely clearing the line then falling back below it for the remainder of Friday. (The volume was low on the retreat, however, and there was a late day break of a flag on increased volume, so we could see higher prices Monday - Tuesday.)
JAG - where to add?
Posted by frtaylor on 19th of Aug 2011 at 10:54 am
Matt, JAG has broken the 200 ma, I bought a little bit at 5.65, wondering if you have any thoughts about where to add more to the position?
thanks.
doesn't seem to be playing
Small Bear flag on 5 min charts?
Posted by frtaylor on 18th of Aug 2011 at 11:30 am
doesn't seem to be playing out....
My chart, using Fidelity Active
S3 on SPX is at 1147.35 another target level
Posted by frtaylor on 18th of Aug 2011 at 10:20 am
My chart, using Fidelity Active Trader Pro shows only down as far as 113.90. Wonder why the difference?
yeah, a little volatile right
SPX 5 Minute
Posted by frtaylor on 16th of Aug 2011 at 12:24 pm
yeah, a little volatile right now. I traded it earlier this morning on a dip, but just watching right now.
and now just blew thru
SPX 5 Minute
Posted by frtaylor on 16th of Aug 2011 at 12:13 pm
and now just blew thru it!
my thoughts exactly!
SPY System Record?
Posted by frtaylor on 15th of Aug 2011 at 10:17 am
my thoughts exactly!
Well, starting to wonder how
It's nice just to be in the SPY trade during ...
Posted by frtaylor on 8th of Aug 2011 at 01:34 pm
Well, starting to wonder how "nice" it is now! Just sitting back and waiting, not too happy about the actual numbers, but still have faith in the system and in the likelihood of a bounce.
It's nice just to be
Posted by frtaylor on 7th of Aug 2011 at 08:00 pm
It's nice just to be in the SPY trade during this big drop, and not have to worry about whether to go to cash, go long or short a bounce etc. For a guy like me, the drop has been pretty easy to stomach as I have only the SPY trade on, and it'll either be a winner or a loser, and the likelihood of getting crushed is low, as I scaled in w/ the Multi entry system.
No positive divergence on the
EUR just spiked, dunno what the news is.
Posted by frtaylor on 5th of Aug 2011 at 12:17 pm
No positive divergence on the 15 min SPX for this low. May go back down - ?