How far out are your puts? Patience would suggest what, September expirations?

You must be holding this based on fundamentals or something other than price - I was stopped out when it went well below the lower support line.

Big inverted hammer candle on SPX 60 min. (9:30 - 10:00)

Matt, is today one of those gap-and-go setups where one should buy the gap? Insights on why today might or might not be different from others. With the negative divergences you talked about on the SPX, etc.

I bought a starter position within the pattern at the break of the hammer candle that formed on June 16th. Whenever I do that I take a small enough position that essentially I don't care if I get stopped out. My stop was 4.38, should have been 4.35 to be a couple cents below the wicks formed on the 15th and 16th.  In any event it was a very, very small position and doesn't matter to me.

Yeah, I should have looked at the daily candle yesterday near the close. And on your chart it just had a little "Pinocchio" as you like to say, barely poking below the line.  Also, for whatever reason, when I charted it just now on tradingview.com  it didn't even break the trend line. I wish I'd looked at it there before setting my stop (which was too tight anyway, imo).

Exact same thing happened to me. Maybe our stops were just a little too tight? I got stopped out to the penny on yesterday's low (4.38).

Wow! Maybe time to buy a put.

Good information, thanks. I am surprised by the -1.2% average. Heck, SPX moved ~1% down from its high just this morning.

closed my QQQ call, and now stopped out of UPRO.

Didn't see your post, but I bought a QQQ call and some UPRO at about 3:45 yesterday, based on the VIX candle.

To play that you would sell Yen (short it) and buy silver, I would assume.

OTOH the VIX gave a buy signal on Friday, with a confirmation candle today. I think the PMO gives a more delayed signal, so it could be that it's just now catching up to last week's selloff.  Because of that signal I bought a QQQ call and some UPRO at the close today. Not a big positions, but the VIX bollinger band trade is a a high probability trade historically, so I wanted to be in. Will also be looking at BPT long trade ideas for tomorrow.

Not an expert, but I'd say these indicators tell you at most to look for a candle reversal setup. The 15 min candle  just closed, and it's still constructive, i.e., not a spinning top or black cloud, etc. 

Thanks for the chart. AMD is breaking out of a flag on the 15 minute.  Four previous rejections in the 53.60-.70 area. Wonder if it'll go through this time. Flag measures up to about 54.

Price action was suggesting that it would hold up, so I went long some short-dated calls. Sold 1/2, atm stop on rest. Will take rest off pretty soon.

Right, I'll review the video (saw it the first time too, thanks for making it).  It just seems like two forces working in opposite directions and hard to tell (for me) therefore. Also just noticing the upvol is about 10x the downvol. Maybe this is when we break out of the range? Have to watch and see.

Matt or Steve, do you see today's gap up as a gap-and-go or a shorting opportunity, and why? We've been in a range since late April, and this morning's open puts us back at the top of the range. To me it looks like a short because of that.

Look at that volume bar!

wow that is short.