Understatement of the year.

Port fee plan will be far more destructive than tariffs if it goes through.

https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1152844/US-could-face-trade-apocalypse-if-Trump-port-fee-plan-isnt-killed

It will be difficult keeping the YOY numbers this low in July because the month over month numbers for May and June of 2024 were 0%, and the month over month number forJuly 2024 was 0.1%.  Once those drop out of the calculation, the YOY CPI will be higher.  For example, if, over the next 5 months the month over month numbers are 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.2%, 0.3%  and 0.2% (likely the best case scenario), the YOY number for the 12 months ending July 2025 will 3.2%.  And of course, if those month over month numbers are higher...  

Steve: When you say you'd like to see a red to green move (XERS for example),  can you share where your actual buy point would be?  Are you looking for a lower open, then if the stock starts to move up you buy as soon as the candle turns green, or are you looking for a lower open, a move up with the buy point being above the prior day's high?  Or something else?

Can anyone give me a technical read on SGN?  Looks like it hit bottom late January at just under $2.00/share, daily volume in low 100,000's.  Had a one-day move closing at $4.50 (intraday high of $7.50) on volume of $100 million shares.  Has drifted back since closing today at $2.13/share on 103,000 shares traded.   Is this likely to pop again?  Is it likely that volume comes in?  I have no idea what that 100 million shares was about on a single day.

Steve,  If the 10 Year Yield were to reach 5%, would you deem it a reasonable place to park some longterm money not earmarked for investment?  What are the downside risks, if any?

Why? Retest of breakout?

Not quite sure what you're referring to.  Reported CPI year over year for July was 2.9%; CPI year over year for August was 2.5%.  That's a fairly low number considering CPI peaked at 9.1% in 2022.  If you feel the numbers aren't to be trusted, that's different and you wouldn't get an argument from me.  But as presented, the August CPI reported a few days ago does not appear to be high. 

Novel idea: Wait for the actual data before reporting instead of surveying businesses and extrapolating.

Gold trading at $2526 this morning.  Miners trading at levels that were last seen when gold was at $1700-$1800.  I just don't get it.  I know mining expenses have increased somewhat in recent years, but energy prices are nearly the same.  All I heard years ago was that once gold went to all-time highs the mining stocks would explode.  Well it has and they haven't...but why?  In my opinion, the miners should be double where they are at present based upon today's gold price.  Where am I wrong?

Thanks, Steve.  Is that assessment based upon the market's reaction to this morning's inflation number or were there earlier signs over the past few weeks?

Tuesday's newsletter?  I do not see a link to last night's newsletter, either in the newsletter calendar section or in the trading community. With Matt away was there an announcement to skip it that I missed?

Since you put "experts" in quotes, I take it you are skeptical of their analysis and have a different take altogether.  I managed a major law firm for more than 35 years before retiring 3 years ago.  Every lawyer I know (there are many - highly educated and well versed in the law) agrees with the main stream media analysis...as did all 12 jurors...rather quickly.  

Would love to know what you believe was strange about the trial.  Feel free to send me an email. My apology if I read you wrong.     

Still don't understand why you and Steve have stuck with this stock all the way down.  It's the antithesis of everything you do on this site.

You do...do an a hell of a job, Matt...Steve does too!  Thank you both.  I am a far better trader for having stumbled across BPT years ago.  You can't be all things to everyone, so don't try.  

Completely agree that seasonally adjusted numbers are "gas lighting".  That said, this is not a "Biden thing" as the Zero Hedge author would have the reader believe.  The fiddling has been going on for decades, during both Democrat and Republican administrations.  I'm not excusing it - the concept is a farce and highly manipulative - just pointing out it's bipartisan. 

That said, in my opinion the Zero Hedge author has his own agenda and that's what weakens his overall point and disappoints.   He too manipulates the reader by his characterizations of the numbers.  For example, why is it that a .1% miss on the CPI to the upside makes for a "hotter " than expected number (the implication being that it's a disaster), but a .1% miss to the downside on the PPI (which we know is inaccurate but putting that aside) is characterized as the "smallest possible miss"?  The answer is obvious. 

Gold up $47 this morning at $2208...GDX up $0.35 at $30.26 in pre-market trading.  WTF will it take to see the mining stocks make an NVDA-type move??  

I'm struggling to find the right entry point for KISS system trades.  Have set my favorites but when I receive an email alert, more often than not the stock has already made a big move. That makes me hesitate. Yesterday for example, I received an email for JD after it moved up 15% on the day. Today it gapped higher again on the open.  Chasing those type of moves does not sit well with me, even ones with a smaller % move at the outset.

I understand KISS is a trending following system identifying stocks that may move higher for months, but the initial entries seem exceedingly high relative to the initial STS.  I struggle making the adjustment since my plays for years have been tied to BPT trade ideas, the majority of which rely upon a breakout from a pattern.  

Any suggestions?

KISS System question: Maybe I missed it, but how does one determine a good entry point for these trades?  Unlike the "trade ideas" that usually have a clearly defined breakpoint, or level of support, the KISS trades generally do not.  Do I hope for a pullback closer to the 1st STS, or do I just jump in? 

If I'm at the computer trading stocks intraday, I tend to use a 5 minute chart for my entry.  In my opinion, patterns and breaking of resistance levels in this timeframe offer up reliable entry points. When and where to exit a position (placing the right stop) is more difficult to gauge; still working on that.  I tend to play high beta stocks. Being a skeptic by nature I often place my stops too tight. Reducing position size allows me to place wider stops.  Learning through experience; there's no better way.