Seems to be plenty of liquidity.  What would typically cause such a sharp spike down followed by a quick reversal - one large seller trying cash out of a position all at once at market price?  

Excellent charts.  Thank you.

"Each time they tell us it's going to be the end of the world, and each time it isn't".  Perhaps not for you or I, but tell that to the millions of senior citizens who paid in over a lifetime and whose only source of income is their monthly social security check.  Wish people weren't living that close to the edge, but many are.

Lawrence Tribe disagrees with you about the 14th amendment.  Not knocking your knowledge or wisdom, but on this one I'll go with Tribe.

Assuming both sides do not want the country to default, what exactly are the Republicans offering...and where we they the three times trump  wanted to raise the debt ceiling? Sounds more like a hostage negotiation than anything else.

HALO - Take the trade here (inside the pattern) with a stop at $32.12 or on a breakout of the  pennant around $34.28?

Speaking of gold, what am I missing here?  Rumors that the debt ceiling will be raised should be bullish for gold.  After all it just means the US will borrow more...or in symbolic terms, "print money".  Similarly, if the debt ceiling is not raised and the US defaults, the dollar will drop and the value of gold should rise.  In either scenario gold should be strong...and yet it's not.  What am I missing?

Matt: Great newsletter, as always.  

With regard to UXIN, you mentioned you'd like to buy back in, but did not indicate what strategy you might employ?  Right here at yesterday's close ($1.55)?  On a pullback to the 9 EMA?  On strength above yesterday's close?  Some guidance would be appreciated; these low priced stocks are tricky.  

KALA - Anyone still following this stock?  I do from time to time.  Still amazed at the move and the volume in late December.  

Caught a majority of the spike in early March and again in early April (in and out same day).  Bollinger bands tightening; stock in a narrow trading range on extremely light volume.  Sensing this is likely to spike again without warning.  I'm inclined to put in an open stop limit order to buy $1.00 above the current price in the hopes of catching a big move higher if it materializes.  Any downside to doing so?  Other ideas or thoughts?

Thanks, Matt.  In your opinion, which is the better play regarding ROIV:  buying a break of the blue downtrend line or waiting for a break of the horizontal resistance?  Suspect you will say the former is more aggressive, the latter more conservative. 

The implication being that either way (debt ceiling increase OR default) the SPY is likely to drop...and positions in the inverse ETFs (SDS, SH, SPXU, SSO or UPRO) would do well? Of course timing is everything.

Excellent newsletter, Steve.  Easy to follow commentary.  

I'm wondering if either you or Matt could flush out thoughts around the debt ceiling fight.  Given the political backdrop, I'm not sure this time around it will resolve prior to a crisis.  Is there a way to protect investment assets or hedge short term as the deadline rapidly approaches (as you imply, quicker than most realize)?  Is there a play linked to the US dollar, interest rates (TLT?) gold or something else to consider if one is skeptical that a solution is upon us? 

Completely agree with your sentiments.  Unfortunately, I suspect greed will win the day.

Reflection of poor management and misguided decisions.

Reminds me of the mid-1980's when I was head administrator for one of the largest IP law firms in the country.  Business was booming...our client list was a who's who of corporate America...partners were making more money than they ever dreamed of.  One young partner on the management committee at the time wanted to squeeze some additional profit and thought the way to do so was to require associates and staff to sign for legal pads, pens and pencils, etc. whenever they needed to replenish their supply. Penny wise, pound foolish, that partner became the laughing stock of the law firm.

Will fractional reserve banking be put to the test?  You have to wonder if Yellen is just a little bit worried when you see headlines like this: 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/22/treasury-will-do-whatever-it-takes-to-ensure-savings-remain-safe-yellen-to-tell-senators-.html

What he should have said:

"Effective immediately, banks are precluded from investing deposits in anything other than short-term government paper."  

It was the 10 year bonds purchased when interest rates were extremely low that got SVB (and likely other banks) into trouble.  Banks shouldn't be allowed to reach for yield.

Gold up $31 on the day; miners barely notice.

Be aware: If you're trading inside a retirement account (401K, profit sharing), you will still receive a K-1 for any LP you bought and sold...even if the transaction was with pre-tax money.  I try to avoid those equities as well.

Any correlation between the depth of the inversion and the severity of the recession to follow?

The telltale sign that housing prices were peaking this time last year?  Sellers refusing to accept offers that included a contingency to inspect the property.  I feel bad for the naive first time buyers caught up in the frenzy ("the fear of missing out"), and loathe the real estate agents who advised it was no big deal.  Buyer beware never more relevant

Just checked KALA out of curiosity.  At year end this stock went from $4.00 to $55.00 in 5 trading days on volume of approximately 121M shares.  Has drifted down from $55.00 to $10.00 over the next 38 trading days on volume of approximately 25M shares.  Volume has literally disappeared (6.000 shares traded so far today).  Anything to read into this?  Can a flag last that long?  Trying to learn.