Exceptionally good newsletter - thank you.

How can anyone trust tomorrow's CPI #?  Have to believe the Administration told the BLS employees to report a low # or risk being fired.  There are three reasons: 1. a low CPI makes trump look good on paper despite the obvious: rampant inflation everywhere you turn; 2. The government has every incentive for keeping the CPI as low as possible (adjustments to social security payments for 2026 are yet to be finalized); and 3. trump wants the Fed to cut rates substantially or do so multiple times.  Old Sufi proverb:"Trust in God but tie your camel first".

Thanks for the charts and link; excellent interview. Reminds me of 2007 when a handful of traders were screaming there's a housing/mortgage/financial crisis brewing and no one was listening.

Just curious; at what entry price?  I wonder how many individuals had advance notice of the government taking a 10% stake in this one...

Any thoughts on how the general market/precious metals will respond to a 1/4 point rate cut vs a 1/2 point rate cut today?   Will Powell's guidance have more impact than the rate cut itself? Will the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq and precious metals move together or will they bifurcate?  Anyone establishing new positions in advance?  Will this be more of a non-event in terms of movement?

You nailed this long term trend five years ago, Matt; I've been riding it up ever since.  Thank you.  The latest monthly candle is bumping up against the top of the long term supply zone that you drew.  Can it break out after consolidation and move to all-time highs, or would you favor a significant pullback on the monthly chart at this point?

Who's he going to fire now?  

BBAI - stops work.  On Friday I bought the gap up at the open ($6.92) as the stock continued to rise. Late in the day I placed my stop $0.01 below the low of the day ($6.84).  This morning I was stopped out in the 1st 5 minutes of trading and annoyed when the stock immediately reversed higher touching $7.39.  Calmed down after my gold/silver miner positions reversed higher on the day, reminding myself BBAI was a quick trade and stops are there for a reason.  Well...that reason just showed up in a big earnings miss with the stock now trading at $5.12 (down $1.97) in after hours trading.  I will not 2nd guess being taken  out by a well placed stop for quite some time.     

The effective US tariff rate on Japanese imports prior to the current Trump term was 2%. On July 7th he threatens to raise that to 25%, ultimately settles on 15% and the market celebrates what will ultimately be a higher "tax" on US consumers.  What am I missing? 

Tesla reports 14% decline in vehicle deliveries, making 2nd straight year over year decline.  And the stock is up 4% pre-market. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/02/tesla-tsla-q2-2025-vehicle-delivery-and-production-numbers.html

CYN - playing with fire.  Stock closed yesterday at $5.01. Opened today at $16.40, ran up to $41.54.; now at $24.73. Volatile doesn't begin to describe it.  Made a quick $300 using 5 minute candlesticks, by was lucky not to get burned. Stock was halted a number of times on the way up and on the way down.  Never again, and certainly not for the faint of heart.  Never seen a stock move so quickly (both ways).

Matt: In the chart of OKLO, are there specific indicators that would lead you to buy somewhere in the handle vs wait for the breakout, or is it more a question of style  (aggressive trade vs conservative) and comfort level?  

Thanks, Steve.  Interesting idea that warrants further investigation.

Threatening 50% tariffs on products from the EU as well, starting June 1st, because "trade discussions are going nowhere".  

Businesses already using tariffs to gouge the public. Here's a simple example:

Tariffs are calculated based upon the price the importer pays.

Pre-tariff:Importer pays $5.00 for a product. With a 100% markup the retail price is $5.00 x2 = $10.00. 

After a 10% tariff is enacted: Importer pays $5.00 + $0.50 (10% tariff) = $5.50. With a 100% markup the retail cost should be $5.00 x2 = $10.00 + the cost of the tariff ($0.50) = $10.50. 

Instead, businesses are apparently adding in the 10% tariff before calculating their  markup  ($5.00 +$0.50) x2 = $11.00, to come up with the retail price. To me this is gouging.

Nice summary. Thank you. 

China halts export of Rare Earth Minerals. Not sure why this story is being ignored by the market.  

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/business/china-rare-earths-exports.html 

Will see if it sticks, but it looks like today is the largest one day increase in gold in history.  Not in % terms, just dollars. Still....  

That's in addition to the 25% tariffs on aluminum, steel and imported autos and auto parts. 

And what happens when those $1 million port fees (per port call for Chinese-operated vessels and Chinese built vessels) kick in? 

Not to mention the elephant in the room: Will US businesses selling American-made products take advantage of the situation and raise prices (gouge) like many did during covid? 

Cost of living just got a lot more expensive.