Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Apr 2024 at 01:20 am
FXY - it looks like the intervention is finally happening. I
would guess it's a coordinated effort between the trilateral group
that met in DC the week before last, but we'll never know for
sure.
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Apr 2024 at 11:04 pm
STS Weekly - all of the major indexes are still long and within
2% of hitting STS's. Makes for a compelling area to try some
longs with relatively tight stops possible (just in case the market
decides to skip past the normal corrective type action again and go
straight into Zimbabwe mode). GLD only 2.27% away from STS
on the daily version...it's 9.5% away on the weekly.
I personally think we're setting up to crash... higher. It
could come with a nice headfake lower first, but I'm pretty sure it
will resolve in a crash higher. That's the message I get from
the recent currencies, bonds and gold actions.
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Apr 2024 at 10:29 pm
The fed is in the backseat now anyway. We have transitioned into
fiscal dominance. We're just so used to following the Feds moves to
inform our thoughts about potential future market direction and old
habits die hard. Not many have alive have traded through a period
of fiscal dominance (even fewer even realize we've switched)
and this one is looking to be like no other...the 40's will
be the nearest analog.
Given the lack of historical analogue for this unprecedented
dominance, I wouldn't be surprised if the market doesn't follow
historical norms. We've already seen hints at disconnects (remember
when we blew through 4600 like it's wasn't even there?). I think
we're much more likely to act like an emerging market going
forward. That would include maybe a messy crash type event here
shortly, but the following YCC intervention will most likely lead
to a rally like has never been seen in the US. Asset prices are
likely to go through the roof...Zimbabwe style. We could even skip
the whole crash part and just start accelerating higher. It kind of
depends on when they turn on YCC type measures (which the Fed will
be forced into because they are being dominated by the fiscal
side).
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Apr 2024 at 01:19 pm
I don't understand what they're selling but the valuation
doesn't scream "short me" -- it looks pretty reasonable on a
fundamental basis. Again, I don't get it - I guess I'm too old or
something - but it triggers as a buy for me on a lot of fundamental
screens. That doesn't mean they aren't doing something weird
with their financials...that's always a possibility, especially
with head scratchers, like this one.
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Apr 2024 at 11:38 am
DXYZ - I scalped about 50% on this sucker, but I'm still not
sure how it's legal to start with. And it didn't get better when
the details came out. Maybe interesting around $9.
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Apr 2024 at 11:03 am
I hope that means they have had less customers! Not joking at
all. Haha - they're doing just fine based on crowd levels, but
maybe customers pushing back a bit when they tried to take pizza
from $20 per slice to $25 per slice to increase revenue (the curse
of publicly traded anything). I'm cutting out early today for
probably the last storm skiing of the season.
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Apr 2024 at 10:56 am
Haha. Very true.
I don't want them to manipulate it because it's just another
kick the can down the road until something really blows up move
(describes most of the global financial system right now), but I'm
surprised they haven't. Even scarier would be if they've
tried to intervene and can't get traction (it takes a LOT of
firepower to push a currency around). ....that's likely why
they came to town last week with hat in hand - they need help to
manipulate it.
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 11:52 pm
Interesting that VOLD never went positive today. I found the
same thing but opposite (positive VOLD on down days) to be the case
just about always on down days since the October rally started -
internals very rarely confirmed the weakness in price during the
uptrend. We'll see this time. Market is likely to be nutty first
thing tomorrow with PCE coming in and there is an ungodly amount of
Gov cheese in the system which I think always keeps the bias to
crashing higher. I saw a headline about an 11 trillion suprise
spending figure today but haven't read the details yet (wouldn't
surprise me if it's for a single year). That's the thing about Gov
spending - it's hard to track and the surprises are typically not
to the downside and they are backwards looking these days (they are
spending without legislation at the border with private flights,
buses, debit cards, etc...that's all finding its way into the
system...and it's almost immediate but we only know about it after
the fact and wonder why the economic reports seem so goofy and
disconnected these days).
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 04:38 pm
I wouldn't beat yourself up. Today's action was perfectly
designed to trap as many traders as possible, as spectacularly as
possible. An AI couldn't have designed a better day for traps if it
trained on all of history's market data and all the books on trader
psychology ever published.
The one thing I have noticed is that they are taking
advantage of the instinct for most people to think hot inflation
and higher rates = lower markets. That's not the case but it's a
widely held belief so those people have emotional reactions on hot
print days and hit the sell button which the smart money takes
advantage of knowing that inflation inflates.
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 04:29 pm
It never made sense to be down on hot inflation numbers and weak
but not too weak GDP data. It's basically mega cap market nirvana -
not to mention Meta also had great earnings. Are we in
stagflation? Yeah, probably, but everyone is stuck buying the
products and services of the mega caps. They have pricing power and
will crush quarter after quarter (I don't count TSLA in the group
anymore, even though I'm long).
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 02:57 pm
This is the kind of things that FA's have to offer and what that
the new ETF's are trying to displace. Honestly, I don't think it
will be that hard for the ETF's to win out. Look at how long the
average lockup period is! Buffer ETF's can be liquidated with
a gain on day 2, if the market has gone up. Hard to compete with
that with this old school approach.
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 02:13 pm
Plaza Accord 2.0? There were some meetings recently with Asian
finance ministers in DC and the rumor is they are discussing a
potential new Plaza Accord. As much as I would hate that kind
of theft from the purchasing power of middle and lower class
Americans to boost fat cat American companies and Asian countries,
I figured nothing would come of it until probably December.
Looking at the dollar today relative to the 10 year yield,
I'm wondering if maybe they decided to act sooner rather than
later? But Yen still weak...hard to say.
This pic briefly describes the conditions that lead to the
1st Plaza Accord. Look familiar?
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 01:44 pm
We did flip green on SPX OANDA (the session started at 5
yesterday). Still at -0.02% right now.
Market trying to figure out if it's worried more about
inflation or growth. If it's inflation, market should go higher,
not lower (peasants be damned).
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 10:14 am
CNBC clueless as usual. They can't figure out why some numbers
look so strong but others signal a weak economy. They refuse to
look at anything through the most logical filters because it's
"political." I mean just state the obvious - the Gov is spending
more than ever in history and our border is being flooded with low
cost labor like never in history and then work from that baseline
forward. A lot of the questions they're asking this morning
suddenly have obvious answers. Sometimes you have to say things
that make your party potentially look bad if you want to be a
financial journalist. But they self censor instead - everyone in
the finance world suffers if we can't talk about the actual causes
when we have problems.
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 09:25 am
The US has never and will never pay down any debt. It's not the
way it works. They service the debt (mostly with printed currency).
Dilute the currency which inflates assets prices which reduces the
purchasing power of everyone. The wealth of the very wealthy asset
holders increase while middle class savings is decimated because
they don't have enough assets to keep up. Eventually the debt
appears smaller after the inflation. Rinse repeat. We're just on
Turbo now and the equation requires at least leveling off spending
while waiting for inflation to do it's work.
There are many saying that the US has no choice but to run
inflation hot for 8 - 10 years (because reduced spending is not an
option, but they don't say that). They're already a couple of years
in and will gaslight the crap out of all of us the entire time it's
happening by saying inflation is not that bad.
Posted by DigiNomad on 24th of Apr 2024 at 06:53 pm
Just hit the buy stop / short cover 2 days ago. We're in whipsaw
territory.
If I would have taken both trades the minute they triggered,
it would have been a break even trade. That doesn't suck, but the
mean reversion systems clearly perform better at times like
these.
Posted by DigiNomad on 24th of Apr 2024 at 06:12 pm
What does the Gov do if the economy gets squirrely now when
they've already been spending like it's a great depression and
world war combined? I'm scared to ask. I'm afraid the answer
is that we'll just be blown away by their ability to spend even
more and inflate their way out of it, at least until mid
November.
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FXY - it looks like
Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Apr 2024 at 01:20 am
FXY - it looks like the intervention is finally happening. I would guess it's a coordinated effort between the trilateral group that met in DC the week before last, but we'll never know for sure.
STS Weekly - all of
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Apr 2024 at 11:04 pm
STS Weekly - all of the major indexes are still long and within 2% of hitting STS's. Makes for a compelling area to try some longs with relatively tight stops possible (just in case the market decides to skip past the normal corrective type action again and go straight into Zimbabwe mode). GLD only 2.27% away from STS on the daily version...it's 9.5% away on the weekly.
I personally think we're setting up to crash... higher. It could come with a nice headfake lower first, but I'm pretty sure it will resolve in a crash higher. That's the message I get from the recent currencies, bonds and gold actions.
The fed is in the
SPX and one scenario the abc
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Apr 2024 at 10:29 pm
The fed is in the backseat now anyway. We have transitioned into fiscal dominance. We're just so used to following the Feds moves to inform our thoughts about potential future market direction and old habits die hard. Not many have alive have traded through a period of fiscal dominance (even fewer even realize we've switched) and this one is looking to be like no other...the 40's will be the nearest analog.
Given the lack of historical analogue for this unprecedented dominance, I wouldn't be surprised if the market doesn't follow historical norms. We've already seen hints at disconnects (remember when we blew through 4600 like it's wasn't even there?). I think we're much more likely to act like an emerging market going forward. That would include maybe a messy crash type event here shortly, but the following YCC intervention will most likely lead to a rally like has never been seen in the US. Asset prices are likely to go through the roof...Zimbabwe style. We could even skip the whole crash part and just start accelerating higher. It kind of depends on when they turn on YCC type measures (which the Fed will be forced into because they are being dominated by the fiscal side).
I don't understand what they're
ANF - Watching for another short entry on this overinflated ...
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Apr 2024 at 01:19 pm
I don't understand what they're selling but the valuation doesn't scream "short me" -- it looks pretty reasonable on a fundamental basis. Again, I don't get it - I guess I'm too old or something - but it triggers as a buy for me on a lot of fundamental screens. That doesn't mean they aren't doing something weird with their financials...that's always a possibility, especially with head scratchers, like this one.
DXYZ - I scalped about
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Apr 2024 at 11:38 am
DXYZ - I scalped about 50% on this sucker, but I'm still not sure how it's legal to start with. And it didn't get better when the details came out. Maybe interesting around $9.
I hope that means they
MTN (Vail Resorts) Monthly/Weekly ... Sending it into the last ...
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Apr 2024 at 11:03 am
I hope that means they have had less customers! Not joking at all. Haha - they're doing just fine based on crowd levels, but maybe customers pushing back a bit when they tried to take pizza from $20 per slice to $25 per slice to increase revenue (the curse of publicly traded anything). I'm cutting out early today for probably the last storm skiing of the season.
Haha. Very true. I don't want
Japanese Yen in full crash mode. New LOD. It hasn't ...
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Apr 2024 at 10:56 am
Haha. Very true.
I don't want them to manipulate it because it's just another kick the can down the road until something really blows up move (describes most of the global financial system right now), but I'm surprised they haven't. Even scarier would be if they've tried to intervene and can't get traction (it takes a LOT of firepower to push a currency around). ....that's likely why they came to town last week with hat in hand - they need help to manipulate it.
Japanese Yen in full crash
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Apr 2024 at 10:39 am
Japanese Yen in full crash mode. New LOD. It hasn't mattered to US markets, but when they decide it matters, it will suddenly become big news.
If I had savings in Yen, I would have panicked into BTC a long time ago.
Interesting that VOLD never went
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 11:52 pm
Interesting that VOLD never went positive today. I found the same thing but opposite (positive VOLD on down days) to be the case just about always on down days since the October rally started - internals very rarely confirmed the weakness in price during the uptrend. We'll see this time. Market is likely to be nutty first thing tomorrow with PCE coming in and there is an ungodly amount of Gov cheese in the system which I think always keeps the bias to crashing higher. I saw a headline about an 11 trillion suprise spending figure today but haven't read the details yet (wouldn't surprise me if it's for a single year). That's the thing about Gov spending - it's hard to track and the surprises are typically not to the downside and they are backwards looking these days (they are spending without legislation at the border with private flights, buses, debit cards, etc...that's all finding its way into the system...and it's almost immediate but we only know about it after the fact and wonder why the economic reports seem so goofy and disconnected these days).
I wouldn't beat yourself up.
From SPX down 1.6% today to AH being up almost ...
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 04:38 pm
I wouldn't beat yourself up. Today's action was perfectly designed to trap as many traders as possible, as spectacularly as possible. An AI couldn't have designed a better day for traps if it trained on all of history's market data and all the books on trader psychology ever published.
The one thing I have noticed is that they are taking advantage of the instinct for most people to think hot inflation and higher rates = lower markets. That's not the case but it's a widely held belief so those people have emotional reactions on hot print days and hit the sell button which the smart money takes advantage of knowing that inflation inflates.
This was crazy. Absolutely perfect design.
It never made sense to
From SPX down 1.6% today to AH being up almost ...
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 04:29 pm
It never made sense to be down on hot inflation numbers and weak but not too weak GDP data. It's basically mega cap market nirvana - not to mention Meta also had great earnings. Are we in stagflation? Yeah, probably, but everyone is stuck buying the products and services of the mega caps. They have pricing power and will crush quarter after quarter (I don't count TSLA in the group anymore, even though I'm long).
This is the kind of
Life Insurance folks been doing it for years......new ETFs offering ...
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 02:57 pm
This is the kind of things that FA's have to offer and what that the new ETF's are trying to displace. Honestly, I don't think it will be that hard for the ETF's to win out. Look at how long the average lockup period is! Buffer ETF's can be liquidated with a gain on day 2, if the market has gone up. Hard to compete with that with this old school approach.
Plaza Accord 2.0? There were
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 02:13 pm
Plaza Accord 2.0? There were some meetings recently with Asian finance ministers in DC and the rumor is they are discussing a potential new Plaza Accord. As much as I would hate that kind of theft from the purchasing power of middle and lower class Americans to boost fat cat American companies and Asian countries, I figured nothing would come of it until probably December. Looking at the dollar today relative to the 10 year yield, I'm wondering if maybe they decided to act sooner rather than later? But Yen still weak...hard to say.
This pic briefly describes the conditions that lead to the 1st Plaza Accord. Look familiar?
We did flip green on
we close green? lol that would be fun
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 01:44 pm
We did flip green on SPX OANDA (the session started at 5 yesterday). Still at -0.02% right now.
Market trying to figure out if it's worried more about inflation or growth. If it's inflation, market should go higher, not lower (peasants be damned).
VIX - Looks like weak
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 11:55 am
VIX - Looks like weak divergence, but I'm learning to trust the signals over the eyes (constant battle)
SPX - lost the YTD
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 10:28 am
SPX - lost the YTD VWAP. Next one down is the VWAP from the October bottom (currently at 4870)
CNBC clueless as usual. They
rate cuts now pushed out to December LOL
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 10:14 am
CNBC clueless as usual. They can't figure out why some numbers look so strong but others signal a weak economy. They refuse to look at anything through the most logical filters because it's "political." I mean just state the obvious - the Gov is spending more than ever in history and our border is being flooded with low cost labor like never in history and then work from that baseline forward. A lot of the questions they're asking this morning suddenly have obvious answers. Sometimes you have to say things that make your party potentially look bad if you want to be a financial journalist. But they self censor instead - everyone in the finance world suffers if we can't talk about the actual causes when we have problems.
The US has never and
https://youtu.be/-HmGhnIhxaU?si=gEM4Z1B-AOzSgklz
Posted by DigiNomad on 25th of Apr 2024 at 09:25 am
The US has never and will never pay down any debt. It's not the way it works. They service the debt (mostly with printed currency). Dilute the currency which inflates assets prices which reduces the purchasing power of everyone. The wealth of the very wealthy asset holders increase while middle class savings is decimated because they don't have enough assets to keep up. Eventually the debt appears smaller after the inflation. Rinse repeat. We're just on Turbo now and the equation requires at least leveling off spending while waiting for inflation to do it's work.
There are many saying that the US has no choice but to run inflation hot for 8 - 10 years (because reduced spending is not an option, but they don't say that). They're already a couple of years in and will gaslight the crap out of all of us the entire time it's happening by saying inflation is not that bad.
Just hit the buy stop
Posted by DigiNomad on 24th of Apr 2024 at 06:53 pm
Just hit the buy stop / short cover 2 days ago. We're in whipsaw territory.
If I would have taken both trades the minute they triggered, it would have been a break even trade. That doesn't suck, but the mean reversion systems clearly perform better at times like these.
What does the Gov do
Posted by DigiNomad on 24th of Apr 2024 at 06:12 pm
What does the Gov do if the economy gets squirrely now when they've already been spending like it's a great depression and world war combined? I'm scared to ask. I'm afraid the answer is that we'll just be blown away by their ability to spend even more and inflate their way out of it, at least until mid November.