30 Year yield climbed .82% today to 4.66%.  It's extended but appears to be in breakout mode after clearing the 4.5% level.

Lots of voices pinning the rally tail on the 30 year bond auction donkey earlier today. Not sure that makes a ton of sense given how it closed.

Why Janet switched from 80/20 long to short duration borrowing to the complete opposite is looking more and more crazy by the day.  Borrowing trillions at the higher rate short end while the long end rises out of a crazy stupid low level it never made sense to be at in the first place. Good plan? 

10 Year closed solidly higher on the day - looking good. HYG down fractionally. 

I don't see any news on today's Fed speak, but the ramp came around time I was expecting dovish commentary to offset the political damage yesterday...

These 2 try failure bear trap plays were golden there for a few months. Not working so well lately.  Recovering the broken level a month ago would have resulted in panic buying as traders rushed to cover shorts.  Less urgency now, but the trade is still a small winner, for now.  

Now the shorts are covering. Nice. Out 75% 

SPX 2m - lots of traders just went short on that break.  I'm watching for potential trap as it move back above the level where they all got in and start stopping out 

Bostic speech coming up. He has an opportunity to give the Biden campaign a boost if he just flips slightly more dovish than he has been.  Seems like low hanging fruit..

NQ internals flipped positive. Not so much for SPX yet. 

New Live Trading type YouTube channels popping up all the time now. I'm watching a different one today (TOPSTEP TV) and it's well done. 4 traders with a better visual outlay than TraderTV LIve (IMO). The Live trading competition on YouTube is heating up quickly!  No clue how they monetize.

*I like this channel because they seem to be only trading the major indexes. Less of an ADHD feel to it. 

Interesting. Google needs to figure out how to better monetize YouTube on their end?

• The creators of YouTube channel “Dude Perfect” (picture: absurd trick-shot challenges) just scored a $100M+ private-equity investment. Investors are increasingly pumping $$ into social-content creators.

SPX - market internals were actually very bad / confirming yesterday. They were so negative that a guy I follow was suggesting they are near washout levels in the short term. It's been a while since we had internals completely confirm like they did yesterday. 

SPX - interesting action. I think the 10 year is moving higher for the wrong reasons and it's spooking the market further (we want it to move higher because of economic growth not supply concerns). 

IWM - moving stops just below LOD yesterday before the open instead of getting whacked right off the bat is working so far. But now I'm tempted to take my extra percent or so and run. 

Bonus - when the employment survey comes your way, you can report hiring but don't have to worry about the UI insurance part   

Undocumented migrants are allowed to fill jobs these days (no enforcement of US labor laws that restrict it) but not allowed to file for unemployment, right?  Would be hilarious, in macabre kind of way, to see the numbers if they were allowed to file.  Biden figured out a way to get the best of both worlds in the numbers - just allow one and not the other. Impressive. 

Margins safe. Consumers getting the shaft and liking it. Should be decent for the market. 

DXYZ - founder on Fast Money. Karen Finerman asked him the NAV question I've been asking repeatedly on here and...he ducked it. Said they determine NAV quarterly. Lol - so there's a shock coming. Impressive guy though.

Karen circled back to NAV issue and he said "one nice thing about being listed on the NYSE is that investors get to decide what it's worth every trading day"

Slick!   

This is troubling and sort  of insane, but unfortunately not all that surprising.  There will be all kinds of things said to deflect from the things are provable in this story (the person presenting it is bad, etc, etc)....and many will shut it out because they fall for the same strategy over and over that keeps them from looking any deeper. Sad.  If you know something about who posted this, ignore it for 3 minutes. Just watch the video and ignore the people trying to get you to discredit it before you've even given it a chance.  (FWIW - I have no knowledge of or background on the person who posted this. Found it from someone posting to a Mark Minervini post, i think).  

https://twitter.com/JamesOKeefeIII/status/1778157381907513802

Back in the range? I've been following this guy (@JoesephJames07) that preaches about rotating above and below ranges in his nightly videos (he repeats the same strategy setup for the next day almost every night but does it on current SPX and SPY charts...which I actually find really helpful even though it's super redundant). Anyway, he talks about moving above and below the range and how a push above can be measured to predict the size of the move below...or vice versa. 

Ahh, I was looking on a different time frame....slightly different idea about where the supply was sitting.

On the 1hr, today's action looks incredibly similar to action we've been seeing for months now...but only if you flip it upside down. Consolidating in the lower 3rd of the candle - low tight flag look. 

If PPI comes in weak or just inline it would mean that producer are passing on more costs to consumers than they are incurring. Could get a massive rally after today's gut check. Inflation inflates....and it is great until consumers push back and producers start incurring more costs than they can pass on.  I'm not sure we're at the hard pushback phase yet. Gov flooding companies with funds via contracts and they are going out to buy CHIPS, servers, AI services, etc...without really having a rigid cost objective because many of the contracts are cost plus (we weren't allowed to argue with costs unless they completely screwed the pooch on the submission and didn't "gundeck" the numbers like everyone knows how to do to get past a Fed Contracts person).  

I almost got fired (hard to do) once when I was a branch chief and had a fit about a company charging $148,000 for a single "modular server rack"...which they said we needed 8 of. I went to the facility (very very rare...and they didn't like it) and made sure it was what I thought a server rack was. It was a standard rack and called "modular" because you could move the rails to fit different size power supplies (power supply for this application, but it could be moved around to take anything). They said this qualified it for "R&D" and therefore justified the price.  I lost it.  Needless to say, the CEO got wind of me being a pest, called the Admiral, who called the SES I worked for....and I got told to stand down. Eventually, I signed a 1.2 million dollar order for  8 modular server racks with options for 34 more, but did so under protest (sort of...I still gave in and signed it as the branch chief). Soon after that I got a big promotion into acquisition policy.  I'll never know for sure, but I suspect it had a lot to do with me asking to many questions and looking too closely at pricing while in direct operations. In policy, I told people how to do things and what was being done wrong but I was not longer signing contracts directly..and they just ignored the guidance as is standard in Gov offices.  Gov spending wouldn't be that bad if it was spending that was done effectively. I promise, it's not. Gov spending as it's currently done would make the even the most hard core leftist blush.