Elon publicly said he wasn't going to vote for Biden multiple times now.  Doesn't seem like a brilliant move with a DOJ that is clearly willing to wield activist power...

Steveo - Which time frame are you looking to label? This is the 10m and the daily.

Classic late cycle asset class moves with some inflation panic mixed in. 

Haha. 2 out of the 3 paragraphs in this response were written by AI....correct?  My Dad does this all the time without editing it to eliminate the telltale signs.  He says it helps because his mind isn't as quick anymore :)

AFRM - buy now and you will probably pay later.

AMZN - I let them suck me into 0% interest payments on a couple of things recently. I figured turning it down was like turning down free money. They let me make 1 or 2 payments and then sent me a notice that I had to change my credit card settings to NOT pay off the entire balance every month in order to use the program. Lol. That's how they get you - get you to turn off the pesky pay it all every month option and then bet on the customer either forgetting to parcel out the payments or just pay the high rate on the 1 part of the balance in order to get the low rate on part.  I guess if you're having trouble growing....just start scamming! Why not? 

ETHE - Brian Shannon made a pretty good case for buying ETH here via ETHE with double tap of YTD anchored VWAP very recently.  He thinks that the current 23% discount will dissapear when ETH gets ETF approval....which is what happened with the GBTC discount with the approval of BTC ETF's. 

BROS might be my bros again...but last time I let them in they floated more shares. Grrr 

RDDT accelerating losses since going public. Up 20% on the "blowout earnings!". Of course. 2024. 

Sheesh. Looks like the typical CCP stock or index. I guess it's pretty close since they are so dependent on Gov these days.  That last big whack was when the mean ole Gov said they weren't going to reimburse them as high as they wanted (Gov reimbursement is the majority of their game). 

SPX - I left the cycle indicator in so you could see what I mean. It's like we're stuck in a very long wave 3 still (same if you analyze the MA ribbon).  Also have a rising wedge inside the channel. However, if you remember that last currency dilution frenzy, the market LOVED blowing right through rising wedges...often for many weeks at a time. 

SPX 15 min - I have been using the cycle indicator to help determine possible wave counts on all timeframes, with quite a bit of success.  But it gets blown out by money printing sometimes (any unnatural Gov stuff that blows it out).  We're in the middle of one of those now. It was tracking fine - moved through a sell cycle on May 3rd which I've learned to associate with a confirmed wave 3 (Thanks Matt).  Wave 4 kicked in that same day...but the money printing realization then kicked into the market and all hope of counting waves was lost...even the indicator hasn't printed since May 3rd - we're on like wave 10 at this point. They cycle indicator gave up when the currency started burning. Lol. 

I posted this chart last week when the top box was empty. Was projecting a simple measured move based on a double of the range (the range wasn't broken yet, but it looked likely after QE announcements). 

It's been a great short since posted!  Just seems risky with the high short interest and high visibility in the WSB world. 

29% short ratio and a 115% quarterly EPS surprise.   Shorting seems like a recipe for getting your head squeezed off by an WSB APE and paraded around the square before putting it on a stake at the entry to the town     

Yep. Central banks have really gotten good at controlling volatility compared to pre GFC.  Makes sense without getting too complicated if you just think of it like them both saying and also demonstrating time and again that they are acting as the puts in the market so that the market doesn't have to buy puts (which is what the VIX measures).  

We're at the point now where most believe 100% that the central bank will backstop any issue that comes along, no matter what. Even I believe it now...otherwise, I would be broke. It used to be less clear that they would bail out anything and everything so the VIX was more active.  Remember the famous "it's Not QE"?  (statement came a couple of years before "it's not a recession"). We just did it again just last week and, when asked, Janet answered "it's not QE" yet again. We've been in that era for a while now and the VIX is a simple reflection. 

Apple earnings were not impressive. Rounding error beats...less than 1%... and a buyout that wreaked of panic and was a dumb financial move except for the marketing aspect. Yet we see articles and newsletter producers everywhere talking about market turning due to blowout Apple earnings. Most are probably just reading headlines and then lazily regurgitating nonsense for their content and before you know it everyone assumes it's a fact because they read or heard it in 10 places.  Market turned because of coordinated support of the JPY via weakening the dollar with various forms of QE and dovish rhetoric. The only reason the details matter instead of just the trend is when you're trying to figure out whether or not the trend is likely to continue. If the rally had anything to do with Apple earnings then I would say the rally doesn't have a snowball chance in hell of sustaining. But it's not about AAPL earnings.It's 100% about money printing so I think it has a very good chance of sustaining as our purchasing power is destroyed via currency dilution and asset prices rise because the currency used to purchase them is worth less today than it was yesterday.

Consider this - a "perfect" outcome for the central planners right now would be able to print money,  redistribute wealth and DEFLATE asset prices at the same time (it's not as crazy as it sounds...they really do want asset prices to go lower). That is absolutely leftist policy outcome nirvana.   It's completely impossible in practice, because, umm...math and human nature intervene... but that's how society ends up in these pickles time and time again. Every culture that comes along thinks they can print money, redistribute and not inflate...all of them, without exception, throughout history...and it never ever ever works. But they never ever ever stop trying.

*If they didn't want asset prices to go lower, they would have eased interest rates a LONG time ago. It's a primary but unstated goal at times like these. 

Warnings for NVO and LLY - the mega trend appears to be in a bit of danger.