CNBC - Biden will announce tariffs on Chinese tomorrow to protect.... consumers. LoL. There is no shame with the gaslighting anymore! 

VWAP - maybe stupid question, but aren't 100% of VWAP's "anchored"?  People throw out VWAP and anchored VWAP like they are different things....but how is the math for VWAP possible without an anchor somewhere in time? 

Meme Casino is closed but still trading pretty heavy in AH.  YouTube day trading shows are so happy with themselves right now. Christmas in May! 

Yep, the problem is that if you look at a longer term chart, we've been late cycle for a LONG time in a bull market that started with QE in 2009.  Turns out that if you print enough money you can effectively tamp down volatility and destroy the business cycle.  There are some very negative effects, but it looks rad on long term charts. 

I think a downside miss on CPI would provide a doozy of a "game on - hold my beer" moment for Janet.  Essentially, they're likely waiting to print big into any inflation weakness.  Also, the Feb is back to the cusp of outright QE now (they only have "not QE" running at the moment) and a weak print would give them cover to cross the rubicon once more.  Interesting, but also kind of obvious playbook when recessions are simply not allowed to happen....at least not until after November. 

The whisper number I've been hearing is essentially to expect a "good" print - meaning weaker inflation than the forecast. I think these rumours might be keeping a bit of a fundamental lid on an otherwise bullish technical setup. 

CPI print - back to the same ole question. What is a "good" CPI print for the market (e.g. what print will cause it to go up)?

Once again, I think it plays out as follows (2 out of 3 options lead to market higher): 

- if CPI is hot, the market likely does a quick headfake lower and then screams higher (maybe same day but definitely within a couple of days to a week).
- if CPI is flat / inline, the market will likely move higher but not with the same conviction as option 1 (next catalyst for face ripper rally is NVDA). 
- if CPI misses on the downside, especially if by more than .1, the market will most likely gap higher and then drop. The bigger the miss (lower than expected inflation), the bigger the drop.

I've been nailing these for a while now, but  does anyone have a different take? 

I still want to see "Dumb Money."  Fail on the algos for not recommending it to me for purchase / rent already. It took this post to remind me I wanted to see it..

Yep, meme stock fave. The list of meme stocks is essentially a whos who of completely or mostly failed companies that are still trading for who know what reason (probably more expensive to clean up and remove than to just let die a slow death....like closing out an option that's only worth .05).

BB I think was one of the many that took advantage of the last mania to sell into it and fleece the Apes for some capital to try some new ideas to get them back on track. AMC and GME were the poster children for fleecing the Apes, but they were by no means the only ones playing that game. 

BAND on the run.  

I really like the risk reward setups on quite a few of the timeframes right now.  There are sell cycles on a few of the longer time frames, but my guess is that price will eventually break through those to confirm a wave 3 move.

On second thought - this could be wave B (bear flag). Funny how different types of charts give different looks.  I'm leaning towards wave B now...but it's already gone up about 1% since my initial call, so maybe win win. haha

Not surprising. We knew they would pull out all the stops to buy this coming election and deal with the fallout after democracy is saved.  I think the next few months are likely to see spending and stimulus programs that will redefine crazy. Whatever it takes...

Deficit spending and inflation are the easiest way to redistribute wealth (you don't have to deal with legislating taxes).  The downside is that it makes the rich richer, but you get the benefit of moving wealth from middle class savings into areas you have deemed "important."  All economists know this, but the other thing about the strategy is you can't really say it out loud...even middle class leftists don't like having their savings drained. It has to be done in a way that feigns ignorance. 

Yeah, I don't think a dash for trash market like this is a great spot for SARK - if it's doesn't make money, it might be up 5 to 500%...dice roll.  

Speaking of which, DJT has a bit of a double top look on the 2 hr...but what are the chances it doesn't act like a cup and handle instead and tack on another few billion for the Orange Man?  The numbers in the image are hilarious. I see that short interest number and just picture a red faced Soros shaking his fist and screaming into the phone "I don't care how many billions I lose, just keep shorting that POS!!"     

*I can see why DJT has been calling out naked short sellers. I mean...got math, anyone?  But the media just gaslights all their viewers and almost universally says it's a ridiculous accusation. 

Trying to send non Oanda version but it's fighting me. Basic SPX is cleaner for tracking internals.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/suVNp1zi/?symbol=OANDA%3ASPX500USD

This should work

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/suVNp1zi/?symbol=OANDA%3ASPX500USD

Damn. Working on it. I found the button to enable sharing like a month ago, but it's evading me now

Someone asked me for a link to this months ago and I didn't know how to do it. See if this works:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/suVNp1zi/

Internals went negative early and the day and never looked back. That said, it wasn't convincingly negative.  Need a -3 or below on VOLD to start considering it a trend. 

Great chart. If it was a stock I would buy it on the first sign of life (structure change). 

My comment about "not normal" was not about your chart. I was referring to the underlying market mechanics that led to the chart. I think you understand that but your response seemed like maybe you took my comment as if it was directed at your chart....it wasn't.  Great chart. Much appreciated. 

Here's the 1 hour with 10/3 setting on MACD.  I don't actually look at this complicated mess during the day....but I do set alerts off various indicators.

Obviously, this divergence on this time frame is complete dog sh*t....for the time being. Maybe forever...but over time things tend to cycle back and forth from working great to not working....and then back again. Trend is key and the Fed is absolutely putting it's boot on the neck of the VIX right now. Counter trend trades are always lower probability.