The chart links are appreciated.   Thank you. 

…links to Dec 27th newsletter. 

Yes, thank you, Steve. 

Steve/Matt, SPY QQQ - If this is a Wave B, what Fibonacci  levels should one reasonably utilize, given the structure you observe thus far?  i.e. 50%, 61.8%, 76.4% or 85.4% of wave A? Thank you

Matt, what's the appropriate fib extension to use on NVDA for a intraday price target? 1.618 vs Dec18 high and Jan 3 low ($523.57)? thanks

Positives for semiconductors, and TSM, in particular:

“The corruption inside China’s Rocket Force and throughout the nation’s defense industrial base is so extensive that US officials now believe Xi is less likely to contemplate major military action in the coming years than would otherwise have been the case.” represents a material reduction of one of the major risk factors for semis.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-06/us-intelligence-shows-flawed-china-missiles-led-xi-jinping-to-purge-military?sref=aqVfOg3J

Separately, NVDA has catalysts coming up with the reporting of some of their major customers: MSFT AMZN GOOGL

Rotation out of Mag7 into the 493... Steve's simple guide: QQQ & SPY 30 min 50-10 SMA

GS: Technicals on our radar. 

1) S&P Equalweight index (SPW) is the most over-bought it’s been since the Summer of 2020 - e.g. 14-day RSI = nearly 75 (vs the 14-day RSI for the big 7 = just ~55). 2) we are coming off a period of historic ‘easing’ – historic collapse in yields, historic rip in equities; note: GIR rates strategy makes that further Yield declines could be limited in the near-term. 3)     Dec + Jan are seasonally very weak months for the Momentum factor (worth keeping in mind given HF long portfolios have reached a near-record tilt toward Momentum as a factor. Sentiment continues to turn as the 4-week change in the AAII Bear Index was one of the largest drops we have seen in the last 20yrs (e.g. bearish sentiment in the market is at its lowest level since Jan of 2018). Source: GS Global Banking and Markets as of 12/4/23

IWM 61.8% retrace...Matt, don't you always say to expect a reaction at the 61.8% "Master Fib"?

Bill Gross pushing mortgage REITs AGNC and NLY yesterday - 16% and 14% dividend yields, respectively. His previous call (Oct 3) to get long regional banks such as CFG KEY and ET has been profitable.  He clearly likes the big dividend stocks that he thinks aren't going to crap out.

UUP - the only new KISS long yesterday in the BPT top 100 ETFs

IWM - trend day, so far. I'm long SPSM (prefer the profitable small caps vs IWM which has 40% "zombie"/unprofitable companies). 

specifically - Paul Sankey: Saudi could add 2M barrels (they have capacity for 11m, vs current production 9m) and flush the oil market down to $60 so that US producers stop expanding - they are profitable at $60 / barrel oil. . The European integrated cos Total, TTE and Shell - break even at $40 - more efficient than US integrated cos.

Paul Hickey says: when Russell 2000 outperforms SPX by 3.5+%, like today, (1987 Crash , Oct 2008 and Oct 2011), which doesn't happen very often - going forward, small caps outperform the vast majority of the time 

high dividend funds don't necessarily offer recession resistant growth, or inflation protection. The market is skewed toward mega-cap growth (which, you are right, is mostly big cap tech), because that's the source of forward earnings growth and protection against inflation. take a look at MGK and VIG.

here's the image that went along w the Santoli comments - the pullback is mighty shallow - could already be complete...  

It's important to zen out w a sport, imho: I spend most of my summer weekends chasing lower lap times at my local track w a great group of friends. Weekdays after the close: dirt time on the KTM.

NVDA - Steve and Matt, Thank you for your previous commentary. Swing and day traded NVDA for a total of 40 of the last 53 points, since recent lows. Your thoughts on what possible moves may transpire next would be greatly appreciated. Thank you,

Hi Steve/Matt, would you please have another look at NVDA? I've been long since $418. Looks like it could get to the 20DMA, which is also around 32% retrace of that last big wave down from 8/30. Likely capped today considering the large $440 call open interest.  Your thoughts would be appreciated. Thanks much 

Steve/Matt, It would be greatly appreciated if you would please provide your technical analysis on NVDA - is it potentially entering a wave 4 bounce on the daily?  Thanks much