As you all know the trading day following a big up day is usually down. Some statistics for your reference: Over the last 25 years, 87% probability of today being a down close versus yesterday’s close on SPX. This is also true of many markets and stocks: TSLA 70% probability of a down day, today.

$3.5B MOC to sell side - ouch

Matt, Hope you had a good weekend. Would  you please add VTI and BSV to the KISS STS tables?

NVDA just hit the daily 9EMA for the first time since reporting earnings

Chinese arent ready militarily to invade - will take a few more years of preparation, at least. Best to keep an eye on TSM as an indicator.

Ronald Reagan: Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it Stops Moving, Subsidize it.

MOC $180M to sell side is tiny - no sellers to speak of

Matt, Paying attention to what you said about the fish and the fisherman, think QQQ has trouble getting through 334.43? reaction in other direction, or stick w the trend day? - Thanks, Fish Food

Real Simple: in advanced options for Windows Update, just turn off "restart" and/or "pause" updates for up to 35 days, and just set a reminder on your calendar to re-pause every ~30 days. 

I sold mine, too, then when I realized my mistake, just bought it back slightly higher.  who knows, might make a run to that weekly gap around $115. 

as to the volatility today, wasnt it charlie sheen who exclaimed: "It's F-ing beautiful!" in Platoon?  great day trading today :)

I caught the pullback, too +$8k on long QQQ trade :) 

Squeeze big time - think of all those massive short positions waiting for the economy to soften harder and EPS estimates to ratchet down faster. They may prove right, but they are too early.

I believe it was the fastest rate hike by FED in history, certainly fastest in modern era. Your suggestion that they raise even faster in a bigger way would have been too much of a shock to the system, in FED's view,  although Gundlach and  others wanted faster than they did - that is all supposition at this point, anyway - now it's history.

Fed Funds now higher than inflation - the Fed's goal has now been achieved - big milestone.  If inflation stays level, or declines, that means the end of rate hikes, and pause is set in stone.

as a follow up to purchasing the call spread, if you think the measured move is all that there will be, you could also consider buying a butterfly, where the short call strikes are at the measured move.  this would be cheaper than buying a call spread, but also provides less upside. 

Buy a call spread with time frame appropriate to your view. To partially finance your call spread, you could consider shorting puts with less than one week to expiry, at a strike  you dont believe will be hit - hard to do considering potential downside volatility from debt ceiling, or other factors. 

Steve, no one expects you to pick market direction. We all know that there are three possible scenarios, on a daily basis, up, down, or sideways, with probabilities associated with each of those scenarios. Your comments in the Thursday newsletter were spot on. For the newer members, they may need some handholding, where you chime in mid morning that it is a trend day, where pullbacks can be bought, for instance, that beautiful bull flag pull back to 4130.   Don’t be mistaken: we appreciate you :)

For starters, I have the upmost respect for you, Steve and Matt. However, I just re-listened to Steve’s opening comments from the Thursday newsletter he basically says could be a move up above 4100 on the ES, could be a move down below 4060 on the ES , or could be range bound.  So, not as definitive a viewpoint for newer members trying to discern what you guys are saying, as you may believe. Of course for long-term members, able to discern what Steve said with the strong move over 4100, it became clear that it was a trend day up where that first major pullback could be bought.

STNE - Brazil payment processor w a lot of loans gone bad. Warren Buffet owns this one - probably from a lot lower.