Posted by sonofrebel on 5th of Jul 2019 at 01:02 pm
Yield curve; this will be a test...
Everyone isnow looking at 3 month 10 year spread (now inverted)
- traditionally, I havefollowed the more usual 2-10 spread (not
inverted).
So, does itmatter - chart below is from FRED data and compares
the two as far back as the data goes - the shaded areas are
recessions that follow an inversion (with a considerable lag, so no
need to panic, yet).
The 3 month inversion has led to a 2 year inversion EVERY time
so far - EXCEPT now. So will it confirm or is the 2-10 the real
signal and the 3 month is a distraction in aFed/ZIRP mad,mad world
- we will know soon.
Yield curve; this will be
Posted by sonofrebel on 5th of Jul 2019 at 01:02 pm
Yield curve; this will be a test...
Everyone isnow looking at 3 month 10 year spread (now inverted) - traditionally, I havefollowed the more usual 2-10 spread (not inverted).
So, does itmatter - chart below is from FRED data and compares the two as far back as the data goes - the shaded areas are recessions that follow an inversion (with a considerable lag, so no need to panic, yet).
The 3 month inversion has led to a 2 year inversion EVERY time so far - EXCEPT now. So will it confirm or is the 2-10 the real signal and the 3 month is a distraction in aFed/ZIRP mad,mad world - we will know soon.
2 YR gERMAN BUND FORECASTED
Posted by law6 on 5th of Jul 2019 at 01:05 pm
2 YR gERMAN BUND FORECASTED EURO DROP