Posted by sbaxman111 on 26th of Dec 2017 at 05:39 pm
On a number of previous occasions I have posted about how I
count consecutive day patterns using end of day RSI-2 daily
values for the RUT, and other major indexes.I happen to
prefer the RUT. These RSI-2 patterns can be simply up, down,
up, down type moves that I count as a 2 day pattern in my
methodology. Unless there is a significant one day move in RSI-2
values from one extreme reading to another extreme reading, these 2
day up-down moves can be more difficult to enter and exit as a
"pattern". But, I find it statistically meaningful that a
significant majority of these patterns go from high to low values,
or low to high values in 3 and 4 day moves. So far in 2017 (thru
12-26) I count 32 three day patterns, 15 four day patterns, 5 five
day patterns, 2 six day patterns, 3 seven day patterns, and 3 eight
day patterns. This data tells us that there are a lot of
short-term, reversion patterns to trade off of - even when the
value in the VIX is quite low by historical standards. 78% of the
non "up, down, up, down" moves so far in 2017 have lasted
just 3 or 4 days and then reversed. If I add in the 5 day moves,
RUT patterns have reversed 86.6% of the time. But, of course,
we all "know" no one can accurately "time" the market by
successfully getting in and out while going 100% to cash.
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On a number of previous
Posted by sbaxman111 on 26th of Dec 2017 at 05:39 pm
On a number of previous occasions I have posted about how I count consecutive day patterns using end of day RSI-2 daily values for the RUT, and other major indexes.I happen to prefer the RUT. These RSI-2 patterns can be simply up, down, up, down type moves that I count as a 2 day pattern in my methodology. Unless there is a significant one day move in RSI-2 values from one extreme reading to another extreme reading, these 2 day up-down moves can be more difficult to enter and exit as a "pattern". But, I find it statistically meaningful that a significant majority of these patterns go from high to low values, or low to high values in 3 and 4 day moves. So far in 2017 (thru 12-26) I count 32 three day patterns, 15 four day patterns, 5 five day patterns, 2 six day patterns, 3 seven day patterns, and 3 eight day patterns. This data tells us that there are a lot of short-term, reversion patterns to trade off of - even when the value in the VIX is quite low by historical standards. 78% of the non "up, down, up, down" moves so far in 2017 have lasted just 3 or 4 days and then reversed. If I add in the 5 day moves, RUT patterns have reversed 86.6% of the time. But, of course, we all "know" no one can accurately "time" the market by successfully getting in and out while going 100% to cash.