The Utils index has been soaring since Nov-2012 and is now nearing resistance at the top of the channel.
Bounces off the upper trendline have in the past provided profitable scalp trades in XLU.
A candidate for timing a short scalp is utility stock GAS which appears to be forming a top. In early February it broke down fairly hard and now appears to be completing a c-wave.

Many would have suspected quite a bit of leverage at play in gold stocks, however the deleveraging in the gold bullion markets yesterday took many by surprise. At the close of US trading Friday, gold was 1483. Anyone who follows Asian markets would know that the gold price hardly ever moves in the Asian trading session, but on Monday Asian gold liquidations sent the price spiralling down to ~1400, then it recovered to ~1450. Then when the European market opened, liquidations sent gold down to ~1380, and so on. The $400 price drop from the 1920 top in 2011 was pretty steep and ferocious, however it took ~3 weeks while we've just witnessed a $300 drop in less than 2 weeks of trading. Sure, stops below 1500 got triggered, however I'm assuming that much of the leverage that entered the gold market in the ~20 month $1500-1800 sideways price move was pulled out these past few days.
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It's important to put things into perspective regarding gold's move from the 2008 crisis lows relative to other commodities. The CRB BLS Spot Index topped in 2011 at ~10% above its pre-crisis high and is now down ~25% from the 2011 high. Crude oil failed to get anywhere near its $147 pre-crisis high but is currently 200% above its $30 low. Gold blew away its ~$1000 pre-crisis high and at $1920 was 180% up from its 2008 low of $680. Stocks (S&P500) are currently up ~130% from  the crisis lows compared to gold 100%. PMs proved to be a very popular shelter from incessant global CB money printing and ZIRP, however one would have conclude in light of the recent price collapse that leveraged speculation in the gold bullion market contributed somewhat to the gains made over other commodities and asset classes. With interest rates at the lowest on record there's plenty of money available for leveraged speculation, so traders need to be aware of the impact leverage can have on markets both on the upside and downside. 
Note that whenever CBs start to jack up interest rates it usually has the effect of squeezing leveraged positions out of markets as it get harder to make a profit on borrowed money.
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I mentioned above how it took ~3 weeks for gold to make a bottom off the $1920 top. I'm thinking that we may get some symmetry and see this wave down take ~3 weeks to form a bottom, after which we may see a rally to close the gaps left in the daily chart. Gold needs to find support above $1300. 
Note the next big economic indicator is US Q1 GDP - released 26 April.
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I don't believe those CB gold manipulation theories hold much weight. There's no denying that CBs are major players in the gold market. CBs hold hard currencies for emergency situations. For instance, if there was a major crisis in a currency causing a run/collapse, a CB may need to sell gold or offer it as collateral to another CB to raise USD (reserve currency) to cover essential imports until its currency stabilises or finds support. US treasury bonds would serve a similar purpose, however with the USFed printing $1T/year, gold may be favoured. Given that CBs have printed large amounts of money since the crisis of 2008, they would reflect favourably on the fact that their gold holdings have appreciated relative to the devaluation of their currencies.
On a related subject, we know that Germany's gold repatriation request was essentially turned down by the USGovt. Many speculated that the gold was unavailable, however the other possibility is that the USFed may be holding on to it as de facto collateral for loans extended to the ECB by the USFed. We don't know the exposure the USFed has to the Eurozone and how much it stands to lose in the event of a Eurozone breakup.

Check out the photo from this Reuters report on the EU/ECB/IMF bailout of the failed Cyprus banks. The convoy of trucks was doing a €1B money drop to the branches of the failed banks. Planes loaded with cash must have been idling on the tarmac in Frankfurt waiting for the govt in Nicosia to sign the bailout papers.
Cyprus reopens banks with restrictions
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There was a lot of EU bashing by commentators over the bailout conditions. Claims that the people were robbed, taxed, etc by the EU. There wasn't much left for the EU to 'rob' as the deposits had been squandered due to very poor investment decisions by the banks' management. Much of the deposits were lent out to the Greek govt, banks and businesses. You can imagine the frantic calls to Cyprus from Greece in past years when the ponzi scheme was going awry,
along the lines ...
Hey buddy, things are getting desperate over here, how about letting us get our hands on some of that fine Russian moolah. What a windfall for Greece.
Also the EU doesn't have a banking union, bank failures are the responsibility of the member govts, not Brussels. Clearly the Cypriot govt was in no position to bailout the insolvent banks, thus throwing itself to the mercy of the troika, then the Russian govt, then back to the troika.
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The other revelation was the ignorance of ordinary Cypriot savers who irrationally though that their deposits were somehow in the bank for safe keeping - not to be lent out or invested.
People should ask their banks what fixed income securities or loans are on the other side of their deposits. If the response is AAA Lehmans Bros Mortgage Bonds or AAA Greek Govt Bonds, then they should disrespect the phony AAA rating and quickly withdraw their money and run for the hills.

US dollar looks like pulling back from here.
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The insolvency of the Cypriot banks should not be an issue for the Euro and stock markets as western banks have little exposure to the crisis.
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The bigger issue is Italy which is still without a govt. Markets are still hoping that Berlusconi lends support to the center left party to prevent another election in which the protest vote is likely to be even larger than before. With bad debts continuing to pile up it won't be long before more Italian banks become insolvent and need to be bailed out.

MS failed to make a new high last week and is now vunerable to a sell-off in financial stocks. Expecting a decline to fill the gap made in January at ~21.

In the count shown, SPX is in the 5th wave of a 5 wave move off the recent low at 1485. Wave-2 being a 5-3-5 and wave-4 a 3-3-5 (Flat). So far, wave-5 doesn't look all that strong, however could be seeing wave-1 of an extended 5th.

There was much rejoicing over the US February employment report, however given the surge in part-time jobs and no increase in the participation rate we'll need to wait for the March & April reports to confirm a major expansion in employment is underway, particularly as in Europe the contraction in employment appears to be accelerating.
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The U-6 chart appears to show a 5 wave decline from the top. The downward thrusts of the 1st and 3rd waves correlate strongly with stock market rallies, however the 5th wave starting Jun-2012 has been relatively weak compared to the move in the stock market.
Bullish case-1 would have the 5th wave extending down, however 5th wave extensions normally proceed along the trajectory of the 3rd wave.
Bullish case-2 would have the 5th wave tracing out an ending diagonal.
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At the end of the previous USFed in juiced asset boom in 2007, U-6 got down to ~7%. Comparing with today, the SPX is almost at all-time highs yet U-6 has only declined by a small amount.
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USFed may have herded investment money out of bonds into stocks with its ZIRP and QE monetary policies.

Employment numbers out tomorrow morning. A mediocre result may cause some profit taking.
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The rally starting Nov-2012 is looking very similar to the rally from Jun-2012 to Oct-2012.
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Entering formidable resistance zone.
On March 24, 2000 the SPX reached an intraday high of 1553.

The chart shows that the current consolidation could end up breaking either way.
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Note that there are a lot of traders who have been buying stocks on the basis of now very popular and well known "Sell In May and Go Away" seasonality principle. They're expecting another rally to carry into April.
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Given the USFed $85B/m bond purchases it would be fair to assume that there's plenty of cash available to be lent out for stock market speculation at low rates of interest. Speculators will present stocks, PMs, bonds, property, etc as collateral, so its possible for markets to deflate (unwind) pretty quickly in the advent of a prolonged sharp downturn. As rising markets inflate the value of collateral, additional money can be borrowed for speculation leading to a self perpetuating loop.
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The Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) collapse of 1998 attests to the propensity of banks to lend out large sums money for speculation. When the Russian govt defaulted in 1998, some of LTCM's collateral was severely impaired. The ensuing bailout of LTCM and its investors is an excellent case study of crony capitalism and the banks (including CBs) reckless disregard for systemic risk. At the time the Financial Times made reference the ease at which LTCM was able to borrow money from the banks: "LTCM was able to borrow such large sums of money by operating a merry-go-round: assets were used as collateral to borrow money with which more assets were bought which were then used as further collateral to borrow more money and so on.". The US financial authorities and the financial institutions involved in the bailout were criticized for practising crony capitalism in bailing out not only their own institutions but also their directors, staff and friends who had personally invested in LTCM including Wall Street's finest.
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Fast forward to today, LTCM's creditor institutions were relatively easy to bailout, however Italy's are a different ball game altogether for the CBs.
To resolve the politcal impasse resulting from the recent elections, the ECB may be forced to directly monetise Italian debt and also that of the other debt stressed nations of the EZ. If it does this, it's uncertain whether it'll boost European investors allocation to PMs as a long term inflation hedge. To date investors have been favouring dividend yeiding German large cap stocks as both an inflation hedge and a safe haven from Lira, Peseta, Drachma, etc redenominations.
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Ther appears to be some complacency amoung investors concerning the ongoing European debt crisis. I think investors may be taking the view that the CB printing presses will be made to work overtime before any institution or nation state is allowed to default on its debts. All bad debt must be made good. It's important to note that the ECB and EU cannot prevent a future Italian govt from deciding to exit the Euro and thus defaulting on its Euro debt obligations in the process. Italian debt that is redenominated in Lira will cause massive losses to bond holders.

Small caps have led the rally from Nov-2012.
Yesterday the DJIA retraced 100% of decline off their highs (14080) to make another high, however the small caps only managed to retrace 50% of the decline off their highs (932). The SPX was bid well short of its high (1530) as well.
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There could be one more upwards thrust for the R2000 from here after some consolidation, however its looking like the rally is about to falter.

DAX support holding so far. Needs to break below 7560 on increased volume to trigger a major sell off.
Italian establishment parties are being encouraged from all directions (Brussels and Washington) to form a coalition to maintain the status quo.
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DJIA the most bullish US index - retraced over .618 of the decline off Monday's new high @14080. US Big cap multinational stocks could be benefiting from save haven inflows from Europe.

If Gold can break and hold above resistance at ~1610, sets up potential for a rally to ~1660.

Dow made a new high today but the SPX and R2000 did not. R2000 looks particularly weak right now.
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Result of Italian elections = Instability and disorder.
It appears that 26% of voters rejected the establishment by electing protest candidates for the Senate. 
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Imagine if the US had an election tomorrow and a fed up populus (plebs) chose to elect 26 protest candidates as senators. These would be ordinary people - average Joes off the street. How would the elite 1% coopt or corrrupt these people especially if they were people of principle and conviction?

Very strong recovery after 5 wave impulse off the top. Just broke through the .50 retracement in last few minutes. Potential to retest highs into March if the Italian elections go favourably for the pro-Euro parties on Sunday. A strong rally in the DAX on Monday will signal all clear to the US markets.

GS appears to be tracing out a 5th wave wedgie to complete a 5 wave impulse move from mid December. Could take another week or two to complete. This impulse wave has so far led to a ~35% price gain. The 50 MA has provided a good entry point for dip buyers.

Bulls are saying that AA is undervalued and will soon break upwards confirming that investors have a positive outlook on a global economic recovery for 2013 led by growth in China/Asia.
Alcoa Sees Aluminum Use Climbing on China Recovery

Bears are saying that AA is flatlining with demand from China down and global aluminium prices depressed for some time, confirming a bleak outlook for the world economy.
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AA is currently ~80% below its 2007 high of ~$49 and currently above its 2009 low of ~$5.
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AA's failures at its resistance trendline since the Oct-2011 market bottom have been a pretty good signal of intermediate market pullbacks and downturns. If AA can't get out of bed and break above resistance then we'll probably see markets correcting in the next 10 trading days. If AA rolls over here then a break of support at $8 would likely see price descend to ~$6.

Silvio Berlusconi is closing the gap on a populist platform of tearing up the previous Govt's austerity package and cranking up the deficit spending to offset tax cuts. During the March-April 2012 European soverign debt crisis he's on record as having said that Italy should inflate away its massive debt load by exiting the Euro and returning to the Lira. If he returns to power his Govt should command some leverage over the ECB and Merkel who has her own election to worry about later in the year. The Italian elite look on with envy on how the BOE has been monetising so much of the UK Govt's debt.
Polls throw cold water on Berlusconi comeback

In the last week the DAX futures took a 350 pt fall. The Italian election is on Feb 24th and I suspect both European and global investors will be watching developments unfold.