Many would have suspected quite a bit of leverage at play in
gold stocks, however the deleveraging in the gold bullion markets
yesterday took many by surprise. At the close of US trading Friday,
gold was 1483. Anyone who follows Asian markets would know that the
gold price hardly ever moves in the Asian trading session, but on
Monday Asian gold liquidations sent the price spiralling down to
~1400, then it recovered to ~1450. Then when the European market
opened, liquidations sent gold down to ~1380, and so on. The $400
price drop from the 1920 top in 2011 was pretty steep and
ferocious, however it took ~3 weeks while we've just witnessed a
$300 drop in less than 2 weeks of trading. Sure, stops below 1500
got triggered, however I'm assuming that much of the leverage that
entered the gold market in the ~20 month $1500-1800 sideways price
move was pulled out these past few days.
--
It's important to put things into perspective regarding
gold's move from the 2008 crisis lows relative to other
commodities. The CRB BLS Spot Index topped in 2011 at ~10% above
its pre-crisis high and is now down ~25% from the 2011 high. Crude
oil failed to get anywhere near its $147 pre-crisis high but is
currently 200% above its $30 low. Gold blew away its ~$1000
pre-crisis high and at $1920 was 180% up from its 2008 low of $680.
Stocks (S&P500) are currently up ~130% from the crisis
lows compared to gold 100%. PMs proved to be a very popular shelter
from incessant global CB money printing and ZIRP, however one would
have conclude in light of the recent price collapse that leveraged
speculation in the gold bullion market contributed somewhat to the
gains made over other commodities and asset classes. With interest
rates at the lowest on record there's plenty of money available for
leveraged speculation, so traders need to be aware of the impact
leverage can have on markets both on the upside and downside.
Note that whenever CBs start to jack up interest rates it
usually has the effect of squeezing leveraged positions out of
markets as it get harder to make a profit on borrowed money.
--
I mentioned above how it took ~3 weeks for gold to make a
bottom off the $1920 top. I'm thinking that we may get some
symmetry and see this wave down take ~3 weeks to form a bottom,
after which we may see a rally to close the gaps left in the daily
chart. Gold needs to find support above $1300.
Note the next big economic indicator is US Q1 GDP - released
26 April.
--
I don't believe those CB gold manipulation theories hold much
weight. There's no denying that CBs are major players in the gold
market. CBs hold hard currencies for emergency situations. For
instance, if there was a major crisis in a currency causing a
run/collapse, a CB may need to sell gold or offer it as collateral
to another CB to raise USD (reserve currency) to cover essential
imports until its currency stabilises or finds support. US treasury
bonds would serve a similar purpose, however with the USFed
printing $1T/year, gold may be favoured. Given that CBs have
printed large amounts of money since the crisis of 2008, they would
reflect favourably on the fact that their gold holdings have
appreciated relative to the devaluation of their currencies.
On a related subject, we know that Germany's gold
repatriation request was essentially turned down by the USGovt.
Many speculated that the gold was unavailable, however the other
possibility is that the USFed may be holding on to it as de facto
collateral for loans extended to the ECB by the USFed. We don't
know the exposure the USFed has to the Eurozone and how much it
stands to lose in the event of a Eurozone breakup.
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Gold thoughts
Posted by rixx on 16th of Apr 2013 at 01:34 pm
Many would have suspected quite a bit of leverage at play in gold stocks, however the deleveraging in the gold bullion markets yesterday took many by surprise. At the close of US trading Friday, gold was 1483. Anyone who follows Asian markets would know that the gold price hardly ever moves in the Asian trading session, but on Monday Asian gold liquidations sent the price spiralling down to ~1400, then it recovered to ~1450. Then when the European market opened, liquidations sent gold down to ~1380, and so on. The $400 price drop from the 1920 top in 2011 was pretty steep and ferocious, however it took ~3 weeks while we've just witnessed a $300 drop in less than 2 weeks of trading. Sure, stops below 1500 got triggered, however I'm assuming that much of the leverage that entered the gold market in the ~20 month $1500-1800 sideways price move was pulled out these past few days.
--
It's important to put things into perspective regarding gold's move from the 2008 crisis lows relative to other commodities. The CRB BLS Spot Index topped in 2011 at ~10% above its pre-crisis high and is now down ~25% from the 2011 high. Crude oil failed to get anywhere near its $147 pre-crisis high but is currently 200% above its $30 low. Gold blew away its ~$1000 pre-crisis high and at $1920 was 180% up from its 2008 low of $680. Stocks (S&P500) are currently up ~130% from the crisis lows compared to gold 100%. PMs proved to be a very popular shelter from incessant global CB money printing and ZIRP, however one would have conclude in light of the recent price collapse that leveraged speculation in the gold bullion market contributed somewhat to the gains made over other commodities and asset classes. With interest rates at the lowest on record there's plenty of money available for leveraged speculation, so traders need to be aware of the impact leverage can have on markets both on the upside and downside.
Note that whenever CBs start to jack up interest rates it usually has the effect of squeezing leveraged positions out of markets as it get harder to make a profit on borrowed money.
--
I mentioned above how it took ~3 weeks for gold to make a bottom off the $1920 top. I'm thinking that we may get some symmetry and see this wave down take ~3 weeks to form a bottom, after which we may see a rally to close the gaps left in the daily chart. Gold needs to find support above $1300.
Note the next big economic indicator is US Q1 GDP - released 26 April.
--
I don't believe those CB gold manipulation theories hold much weight. There's no denying that CBs are major players in the gold market. CBs hold hard currencies for emergency situations. For instance, if there was a major crisis in a currency causing a run/collapse, a CB may need to sell gold or offer it as collateral to another CB to raise USD (reserve currency) to cover essential imports until its currency stabilises or finds support. US treasury bonds would serve a similar purpose, however with the USFed printing $1T/year, gold may be favoured. Given that CBs have printed large amounts of money since the crisis of 2008, they would reflect favourably on the fact that their gold holdings have appreciated relative to the devaluation of their currencies.
On a related subject, we know that Germany's gold repatriation request was essentially turned down by the USGovt. Many speculated that the gold was unavailable, however the other possibility is that the USFed may be holding on to it as de facto collateral for loans extended to the ECB by the USFed. We don't know the exposure the USFed has to the Eurozone and how much it stands to lose in the event of a Eurozone breakup.