There was much rejoicing over the US February employment report,
however given the surge in part-time jobs and no increase in the
participation rate we'll need to wait for the March & April
reports to confirm a major expansion in employment is underway,
particularly as in Europe the contraction in employment appears to
be accelerating.
--
The U-6 chart appears to show a 5 wave decline from the top.
The downward thrusts of the 1st and 3rd waves correlate strongly
with stock market rallies, however the 5th wave starting Jun-2012
has been relatively weak compared to the move in the stock market.
Bullish case-1 would have the 5th wave extending down,
however 5th wave extensions normally proceed along the trajectory
of the 3rd wave.
Bullish case-2 would have the 5th wave tracing out an ending
diagonal.
--
At the end of the previous USFed in juiced asset boom in
2007, U-6 got down to ~7%. Comparing with today, the SPX is almost
at all-time highs yet U-6 has only declined by a small amount.
--
USFed may have herded investment money out of bonds
into stocks with its ZIRP and QE monetary policies.
U-6 Unemployment Rate
Posted by rixx on 10th of Mar 2013 at 07:31 pm
There was much rejoicing over the US February employment report, however given the surge in part-time jobs and no increase in the participation rate we'll need to wait for the March & April reports to confirm a major expansion in employment is underway, particularly as in Europe the contraction in employment appears to be accelerating.
--
The U-6 chart appears to show a 5 wave decline from the top. The downward thrusts of the 1st and 3rd waves correlate strongly with stock market rallies, however the 5th wave starting Jun-2012 has been relatively weak compared to the move in the stock market.
Bullish case-1 would have the 5th wave extending down, however 5th wave extensions normally proceed along the trajectory of the 3rd wave.
Bullish case-2 would have the 5th wave tracing out an ending diagonal.
--
At the end of the previous USFed in juiced asset boom in 2007, U-6 got down to ~7%. Comparing with today, the SPX is almost at all-time highs yet U-6 has only declined by a small amount.
--
USFed may have herded investment money out of bonds into stocks with its ZIRP and QE monetary policies.
very impressive chart. I just
Posted by xxnileshxx on 11th of Mar 2013 at 09:30 am
very impressive chart. I just can't believer the velocity of Up moves in these charts. If the pattern holds next bear will be brutal.
interesting chart, what charting platform
Posted by matt on 11th of Mar 2013 at 09:29 am
interesting chart, what charting platform is that by the way to have access to data like that?
nice chart, thank you
Posted by cubby on 11th of Mar 2013 at 05:56 am