SMH & DIG are other examples to the rally in the SPY from
off the Monday low - diminishing volume.
--
Next week the June employment report and then the start of
earning season the week after.
The chart is ~4 hours old. Past couple of weeks the
DJIA has been consolidating above support - contracting triangle?.
--
World stock markets are weakening. There's a view that
the USFed QE program has been holding up minimal global growth and
without it things are likely to fall apart. Dow multinationals
(CAT, MCD, IBM, ...) who derive a large amount of their profits
offshore should be coming under pressure about now. These
multinationals will most likely be lobbying the USGovt to pressure
the Fed on expanding the QE program, not contracting it. Bernanke
is departing, and there's alot of speculation on whether Obama will
force a change of policy.
Chart dates from Tuesday.
CDE could be consolidating before another wave down.
Alternately a break of the down trendline would likely result in
another test of resistance at ~16.
Opexa Therapeutics
Back in Feb the stock price exploded after the company
announced a commercial deal with phama giant Merck.
--
Potential for an upside breakout to 1st target $2.85.
BA encountered some resistance at ~101 and was down 1.5% on
Friday. If the selling continues this week on increased volume then
I think it can drop to ~97, then ~94.
Mulally concerned about weaker Japanese Yen --
EU and US Govts are sensitive to the impact of currency
manipulations on their local auto industries. The reason for this
is that auto purchases are the biggest ticket item next to house
purchases that lead to consumer credit expansion. Govts prefer that
their domestic economies benefit the most from credit expansion
derived from auto purchases. Most Govts around the world subsidise
their auto industries for this reason. Not long ago France
complained about cheap Korean cars flooding the EU and the USGovt
will likely be monitoring the impact of the devalued JPY on its
auto industry.
Japanese auto companies may manufacture/assemble in the US,
however it's important to note that their US factories source a
significant amount of components/parts from Japan.
--
As in the 1930's we may yet see these ongoing currency wars
between nations break out into full blown trade wars in the years
ahead.
Large cap pharma stock ABC got sold-off in April after missing
Q1 earnings and revenue estimates. It had gained ~50% over the
previous 12 mths driving its dividend yield down to 1.4%.
--
The bearish view would have it presently in a b-wave (may go
higher). Looking for a breakdown through the middle trendline on
increased volume - target ~$50.
ABC Misses Q1 Estimates
The free falling USDJPY broke below 100 last week. Given it
found support at ~98 back in 2009 and the fat divergence in the
MACD, I think it could bounce from around this level.
--
It's very hard for CBs to embark on extensive money printing
operations without the support of the issuer of the reserve
currency for which most commodities are exchanged, some exclusively
like crude oil. The US may have removed dollar gold backing in
1971, however since that time it has devoted enormous effort (both
diplomatic, military and covert) in securing dollar backing by the
next best commodity - crude oil (world consumes ~90 million bpd /
~$3T/year), RE: petro-dollar.
Some are of view that the JPGovt would have cleared its new
agressive QE program with the USGovt in order to ensure backup
support of the JPY by the USFed. With the BOJ owning ~$1T USTs, it
also has the option of selling USTs (buy JPY) to create a floor for
the USDJPY. This option is available as the USFed is openly buying
all excess USTs that come to market in order to suppress interest
rates and reduce USGovt interest payment outflows.
Looks like FNV's channel break is genuine.
Gap support at ~42 held. Bullish MACD & RSI.
If it clears it's previous high of $44.43, I think it's good
for ~46.
Need to see some follow through tomorrow.
NGD - has been the standout gold stock - Double bottom
reversal on the 60min chart
GG - put in a solid hammer on the daily chart
NEM - drag on GDX. Down 5% today. Investors dumped on
management/performance problems.
Examining the world's biggest gold miners I noticed that the
recent selloff had taken two of them, Barrick and Australia's
Newcrest Mining back to their 2008 lows when gold traded at ~$700.
That's a 100% retracement of the upside move from the Oct-2008 low
to the Sep-2011 high.
GG has outperformed the other big caps by holding well above
its 2008 low of ~$14. It also had a strong rally off its recent low
at ~27, managing to close one of the two gaps in the daily chart
created in the most recent selloff.
--
The HUI index topped in Sep-2011 at ~12x its 2000 bear market
low of ~50. Gold topped at ~7x its bear market low. The HUI is
currently 5.6x its bear market low while gold is 5.3x. The run-up
in gold stocks from 2000 out paced POG and has now returned to
about par.
The HUI-Gold ratio has fallen to its 2000 bear market low of
0.2. It actually topped at 0.6 in 2004, travelling sideways until
2008 where it broke support commencing a decline to 0.2 in what
appears to be a 3 wave a-b-c move.
--
If gold can hold above $1450 over the next couple of weeks
then we may see bargin hunters move into under valued gold miners.
We saw some extreme volume on the recent deep selloff which may be
an indicator of a wash-out/capitulation.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
upside volume?
SPY 60 min
Posted by rixx on 27th of Jun 2013 at 02:50 pm
SMH & DIG are other examples to the rally in the SPY from off the Monday low - diminishing volume.
--
Next week the June employment report and then the start of earning season the week after.
LEDR - small cap tech
Posted by rixx on 27th of Jun 2013 at 08:54 am
Bullish uptrend support provided by 50MA.
MACD recycling to zero. RSI 50 level holding so far.
Breakout target ~11.50
stock purchases with borrowed money
Posted by rixx on 24th of Jun 2013 at 10:28 am
If the S&P500 futures falls through ~1535 then I think we could see some serious deleveraging & margin calls.
AL - Air Lease Corp
Posted by rixx on 21st of Jun 2013 at 11:16 am
Broke channel support yesterday. Bearish MACD & RSI.
I think gold maybe retracing
GDX Pummeled
Posted by rixx on 20th of Jun 2013 at 02:26 pm
I think gold maybe retracing the whole move from the bear mkt bottom in 2001, not 2008 low.
DJIA Futures
Posted by rixx on 20th of Jun 2013 at 08:54 am
The chart is ~4 hours old. Past couple of weeks the DJIA has been consolidating above support - contracting triangle?.
--
World stock markets are weakening. There's a view that the USFed QE program has been holding up minimal global growth and without it things are likely to fall apart. Dow multinationals (CAT, MCD, IBM, ...) who derive a large amount of their profits offshore should be coming under pressure about now. These multinationals will most likely be lobbying the USGovt to pressure the Fed on expanding the QE program, not contracting it. Bernanke is departing, and there's alot of speculation on whether Obama will force a change of policy.
Brazil - Bovespa Index
Posted by rixx on 20th of Jun 2013 at 08:21 am
The chart dates from late April.
It looks like the triangle formation in the monthly BVSP chart has broken to the downside.
CDE - Gold stock
Posted by rixx on 14th of Jun 2013 at 11:00 am
Chart dates from Tuesday.
CDE could be consolidating before another wave down. Alternately a break of the down trendline would likely result in another test of resistance at ~16.
OPXA small cap
Posted by rixx on 13th of Jun 2013 at 08:46 am
Opexa Therapeutics
Back in Feb the stock price exploded after the company announced a commercial deal with phama giant Merck.
--
Potential for an upside breakout to 1st target $2.85.
CA Muni Bonds Correction
Posted by rixx on 12th of Jun 2013 at 10:40 am
Broke support a couple of weeks ago.
BA short or intermediate term top?
Posted by rixx on 2nd of Jun 2013 at 06:07 pm
BA encountered some resistance at ~101 and was down 1.5% on Friday. If the selling continues this week on increased volume then I think it can drop to ~97, then ~94.
Ford complains about Yen devaluation
Posted by rixx on 30th of May 2013 at 07:30 pm
Mulally concerned about weaker Japanese Yen
--
EU and US Govts are sensitive to the impact of currency manipulations on their local auto industries. The reason for this is that auto purchases are the biggest ticket item next to house purchases that lead to consumer credit expansion. Govts prefer that their domestic economies benefit the most from credit expansion derived from auto purchases. Most Govts around the world subsidise their auto industries for this reason. Not long ago France complained about cheap Korean cars flooding the EU and the USGovt will likely be monitoring the impact of the devalued JPY on its auto industry.
Japanese auto companies may manufacture/assemble in the US, however it's important to note that their US factories source a significant amount of components/parts from Japan.
--
As in the 1930's we may yet see these ongoing currency wars between nations break out into full blown trade wars in the years ahead.
ABC pharma stock
Posted by rixx on 15th of May 2013 at 09:20 am
Large cap pharma stock ABC got sold-off in April after missing Q1 earnings and revenue estimates. It had gained ~50% over the previous 12 mths driving its dividend yield down to 1.4%.
--
The bearish view would have it presently in a b-wave (may go higher). Looking for a breakdown through the middle trendline on increased volume - target ~$50.
ABC Misses Q1 Estimates
AGI
a gold pm stocks
Posted by rixx on 12th of May 2013 at 07:50 pm
AGI looks good. Gap acting as support so far. Trading above 50MA with the 20MA about to cross the 50MA. Volume since mid-feb looks suspect.
USDJPY Daily Chart
Posted by rixx on 12th of May 2013 at 07:17 pm
The free falling USDJPY broke below 100 last week. Given it found support at ~98 back in 2009 and the fat divergence in the MACD, I think it could bounce from around this level.
--
It's very hard for CBs to embark on extensive money printing operations without the support of the issuer of the reserve currency for which most commodities are exchanged, some exclusively like crude oil. The US may have removed dollar gold backing in 1971, however since that time it has devoted enormous effort (both diplomatic, military and covert) in securing dollar backing by the next best commodity - crude oil (world consumes ~90 million bpd / ~$3T/year), RE: petro-dollar.
Some are of view that the JPGovt would have cleared its new agressive QE program with the USGovt in order to ensure backup support of the JPY by the USFed. With the BOJ owning ~$1T USTs, it also has the option of selling USTs (buy JPY) to create a floor for the USDJPY. This option is available as the USFed is openly buying all excess USTs that come to market in order to suppress interest rates and reduce USGovt interest payment outflows.
FNV Gold Stock
Posted by rixx on 8th of May 2013 at 01:41 pm
Looks like FNV's channel break is genuine.
Gap support at ~42 held. Bullish MACD & RSI.
If it clears it's previous high of $44.43, I think it's good for ~46.
VIX Compression
Posted by rixx on 8th of May 2013 at 09:18 am
SPX new highs since March not being confirmed by the VIX. Might see it decend to the red trendline before we get an explosive upside move.
Need to see some follow
GDX 60 min
Posted by rixx on 30th of Apr 2013 at 04:41 pm
Need to see some follow through tomorrow.
NGD - has been the standout gold stock - Double bottom reversal on the 60min chart
GG - put in a solid hammer on the daily chart
NEM - drag on GDX. Down 5% today. Investors dumped on management/performance problems.
Gold Mining Stocks Bottom?
Posted by rixx on 28th of Apr 2013 at 09:29 pm
Examining the world's biggest gold miners I noticed that the recent selloff had taken two of them, Barrick and Australia's Newcrest Mining back to their 2008 lows when gold traded at ~$700. That's a 100% retracement of the upside move from the Oct-2008 low to the Sep-2011 high.
GG has outperformed the other big caps by holding well above its 2008 low of ~$14. It also had a strong rally off its recent low at ~27, managing to close one of the two gaps in the daily chart created in the most recent selloff.
--
The HUI index topped in Sep-2011 at ~12x its 2000 bear market low of ~50. Gold topped at ~7x its bear market low. The HUI is currently 5.6x its bear market low while gold is 5.3x. The run-up in gold stocks from 2000 out paced POG and has now returned to about par.
The HUI-Gold ratio has fallen to its 2000 bear market low of 0.2. It actually topped at 0.6 in 2004, travelling sideways until 2008 where it broke support commencing a decline to 0.2 in what appears to be a 3 wave a-b-c move.
--
If gold can hold above $1450 over the next couple of weeks then we may see bargin hunters move into under valued gold miners. We saw some extreme volume on the recent deep selloff which may be an indicator of a wash-out/capitulation.
US dollar weakness
Posted by rixx on 26th of Apr 2013 at 10:36 am
US Q1 GDP signals more money printing ahead, not less.
If the dollar weakens here, should be supportive of gold.