Steve, I agree.  The disruption to our economy (and virtually every economy around the world) is beyond what we can possibly understand at this point. Which I think makes it likely that this will be a prolonged event for the markets whatever that pattern turns out to be. I feel like we are in the first inning of what's likely to be an extra-innings game.

Nice chart Steve. I noticed the same thing, perhaps a little more fully formed, on the Qs (which I think are the key at this point). Thanks!

Not seeing divergence on any of the time frames that suggest to me we are washed out yet on the SPX. Looks a little more likely that we could have another 100 SPX points down to the 20 day MA and lower BB before we find out if we might make a higher low. At the rate this market moves we might know that very quickly. Just not seeing signs of any sectors, except oil, looking washed out yet. 

I like the idea of closing out at least half...given how resilient the market has been lately (today's bank earnings were as bad as they could be right now) ....my sense is that we won't get any real downside momentum going until the big techs report at the end of the month -- IF they disappoint even more than anticipated. They are still holding everything else up. 

277.14 as I type, would close out either version :-)

Steve, you're really right about the crude imbalances, thanks for highlighting them for some time, clearly a sell the news day

Trading like Oct 2008 says Jim Bianco whose been around a long time

Jim Bianco@biancoresearch

The S&P 500 was up 3.5% at the high and closed down on the day. Since April 1982 (daily H,L,C began) has happened three other times...Oct 3, 08, Oct 14, 08, and Oct 17, 08.This mkt continues to trade like Oct 08. It was six months and another 25% down before the low.

Goldnice -- curious, what book is that from?

Re: Possible Spy Trade -- Thanks for all the details!

An interesting, counter-intuitive perspective on Fed "money printing"

https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/04/03/nearly-a-trillion-in-bank-reserves-wheres-the-money-printing/

Re: difference between Recession and Depression -- I was kind of joking when I asked, but I did actually google it and basically it says over 20% unemployment = a depression (and that it needs to be an extended time). I promise you when we hit 20% in the coming weeks the press will not be calling it a depression. Since there is no real definition I think it's going to be a dealers choice -- call it what you want, but no matter what you call it it's a disaster.

Hey Matt, hope you're better soon. Glad  you've got the test coming and you're already armed with antibiotics. It sounds like it's unlikely you've got the virus. Good luck and feel better soon! Take care of yourself.

Right. That makes more sense :-) In this market 3 weeks is an eternity.

RE: DVR .....3X ETFs usually have math problems for long term holdings. 

That's a staggering chart. Scary.  So what's a recession and what's a depression? Just asking for a friend.

I've been thinking about this all day and wondering if it was just a coincidence that Goldman dropped it's GDP/employment forecasts today...somehow I kind of doubt it...am I being too cynical?

My sincere condolences. Take some time off as Matt has said. Be with  your wife and family.

Futures just turned around...were down about 2.5% now up almost 1%...cant find any news, anyone see anything?

I just talked to a guy who recently started trading. He was telling me how well he's been doing trading the UVXY! That's problem a sure sign we are very close to a wash out low :-)

I also think the Fed is concerned about maintaining some stability in the Repo market and in credit default markets. The big fear is contagion. They have to do whatever is necessary to stop contagion to lesser credit markets and derivatives.