$SPX - Chart Link- remember to confirm it would
need to reverse and break the neckline so just something to monitor
for now. Trade what's in front of you.
Steve, I agree. The disruption to our economy (and
virtually every economy around the world) is beyond what we can
possibly understand at this point. Which I think makes it likely
that this will be a prolonged event for the markets whatever that
pattern turns out to be. I feel like we are in the first inning of
what's likely to be an extra-innings game.
I hear from so many people (including my wife) "oh - once the
economy starts back up we will have pent up demand and get back
right up to new highs". That might be true in a bubble but I
do not think anyone can give an accurate forecast at this moment in
time. Not even the CDC can give us a best guess when Covid-19
will peak or re-surge. How do we know that there isn't
some major fall out from the oil futures contracts going negative
the other day? Hedge funds and banks that might have been
long those May contracts? We have oil tankers from Saudi
Arabia with millions of gallons of oil on its way to deliver in US.
We are at 100% capacity for oil reserves, we have no room for
it. Not only is oil dirt cheap but there is no demand.
Middle eastern countries economies are going to tank as they
need the price of oil to be around $30-40/barrel to keep their
economies a float. Middle eastern companies own a lot of
shares in US companies. If there economies start to tank
(matter of time now) you will have contagion. I do not think
all the risk has been priced into the markets yet. If I am
wrong then I still have most of my cash to deploy into the market
but I am not all in until I see new highs on the major indexes.
In the meantime I will just scalp, day and swing trade small
positions (10% of my portfolio).
First example of "restart" not that easy - Hard Rock Hotel Chain
reopened major nice hotel 3-4 weeks ago, and only 12% occupancy
“We reopened the Shenzhen Hotel, obviously [in] a global city in
China. Beautiful property. Occupancy is right now at 12%. We’ve
been reopen for a good 3½, almost four weeks,” he said, citing the
Shenzhen property as an example of the tough road ahead that other
parts of the world may face in restarting their businesses.
Allen said that tourism, which has been decimated by the
Covid-19 pandemic, supports the Hard Rock Hotel Shenzhen as well as
other international properties. “If you look at the Hard Rock Cafe
in Times Square [in New York City] it is tourism, a restaurant that
does $50 million in actual sales, that’s all tourism. ... London is
tourism. ”
Hard Rock expects its casinos, hotels, restaurants to take a
year to recover after they reopen
I've noticed that most of my friends and neighbors are
optimistic about the economy coming back quickly and about the
market coming back. Perhaps some combination of a natural desire
for good outcomes and the life experience of the long bull market.
When I suggest that neither might be true, that this could be a
long and difficult and painful slog, they don't want to hear it. So
I've quit having that conversation. I think the idea that we might
not be roaring back is too painful for most people to hear.
FWIW
People have been accustomed to constant bail outs. In the
last two decades we have had constant bailouts, QE and the fed
never more than now is no longer independent of itself. 20
plus years ago I had a great career with a great company working in
NYC. My largest account was a level one trauma catholic
medical center in lower NYC. They got into serious debt and
as in the past they would be bailed out by the government, but not
this time. This time the bar bill was too high and they said
no. MD's and all medical staff believed they would be saved
up until the 11th hour but no bailout. The CEO's of the
hospital had gutted the system and left it for dead. No one
was prosecuted as thousands lost their jobs and all the little
coffee shops around it. At the end of the day, no one cared.
I ended up losing my job because it was 80% of my revenue.
I thought I would be with that company for most of my career.
It took a couple years to recover, I burned through a lot of
cash while i was trying to find the next step in my career.
It was a big wake up call and ever since I keep my eyes
open.
No. That would be too dangerous. I moved to the west
coast some years ago and most of the time I trade the first
hour of the open before I start my work day. I am in medical
sales. I love what I do and if I was just a full time trader
i would be miserable.
Thanks Puma, hear ya, and understand that perspective. It
is similar in my sphere. The polarization of the
conversations of today in general. Whether it climate or
energy. Apparently you're not supposed to challenge the
status quo. I remember something from a long time ago, when
everybody else is thinking the same thing, someone is not
thinking. Good luck and good energy with your trading, take
care, be safe.
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SPX 30 Updated View
Posted by steve on 22nd of Apr 2020 at 03:57 pm
$SPX - Chart Link- remember to confirm it would need to reverse and break the neckline so just something to monitor for now. Trade what's in front of you.
Nice chart Steve. I noticed
Posted by puma on 22nd of Apr 2020 at 04:00 pm
Nice chart Steve. I noticed the same thing, perhaps a little more fully formed, on the Qs (which I think are the key at this point). Thanks!
Thanks puma - not yet
Posted by steve on 22nd of Apr 2020 at 04:16 pm
Thanks puma - not yet confirmed but something to monitor. One day at a time these days but make no mistake there is massive dislocation in our economy
Steve, I agree. The disruption
Posted by puma on 22nd of Apr 2020 at 04:25 pm
Steve, I agree. The disruption to our economy (and virtually every economy around the world) is beyond what we can possibly understand at this point. Which I think makes it likely that this will be a prolonged event for the markets whatever that pattern turns out to be. I feel like we are in the first inning of what's likely to be an extra-innings game.
I hear from so many
Posted by ssaffer on 22nd of Apr 2020 at 05:13 pm
I hear from so many people (including my wife) "oh - once the economy starts back up we will have pent up demand and get back right up to new highs". That might be true in a bubble but I do not think anyone can give an accurate forecast at this moment in time. Not even the CDC can give us a best guess when Covid-19 will peak or re-surge. How do we know that there isn't some major fall out from the oil futures contracts going negative the other day? Hedge funds and banks that might have been long those May contracts? We have oil tankers from Saudi Arabia with millions of gallons of oil on its way to deliver in US. We are at 100% capacity for oil reserves, we have no room for it. Not only is oil dirt cheap but there is no demand. Middle eastern countries economies are going to tank as they need the price of oil to be around $30-40/barrel to keep their economies a float. Middle eastern companies own a lot of shares in US companies. If there economies start to tank (matter of time now) you will have contagion. I do not think all the risk has been priced into the markets yet. If I am wrong then I still have most of my cash to deploy into the market but I am not all in until I see new highs on the major indexes. In the meantime I will just scalp, day and swing trade small positions (10% of my portfolio).
First example of "restart" not
Posted by Walt on 22nd of Apr 2020 at 05:51 pm
First example of "restart" not that easy - Hard Rock Hotel Chain reopened major nice hotel 3-4 weeks ago, and only 12% occupancy
“We reopened the Shenzhen Hotel, obviously [in] a global city in China. Beautiful property. Occupancy is right now at 12%. We’ve been reopen for a good 3½, almost four weeks,” he said, citing the Shenzhen property as an example of the tough road ahead that other parts of the world may face in restarting their businesses.
Allen said that tourism, which has been decimated by the Covid-19 pandemic, supports the Hard Rock Hotel Shenzhen as well as other international properties. “If you look at the Hard Rock Cafe in Times Square [in New York City] it is tourism, a restaurant that does $50 million in actual sales, that’s all tourism. ... London is tourism. ”
Hard Rock expects its casinos, hotels, restaurants to take a year to recover after they reopen
I've noticed that most of
Posted by puma on 22nd of Apr 2020 at 06:03 pm
I've noticed that most of my friends and neighbors are optimistic about the economy coming back quickly and about the market coming back. Perhaps some combination of a natural desire for good outcomes and the life experience of the long bull market. When I suggest that neither might be true, that this could be a long and difficult and painful slog, they don't want to hear it. So I've quit having that conversation. I think the idea that we might not be roaring back is too painful for most people to hear. FWIW
People have been accustomed to
Posted by ssaffer on 22nd of Apr 2020 at 08:35 pm
People have been accustomed to constant bail outs. In the last two decades we have had constant bailouts, QE and the fed never more than now is no longer independent of itself. 20 plus years ago I had a great career with a great company working in NYC. My largest account was a level one trauma catholic medical center in lower NYC. They got into serious debt and as in the past they would be bailed out by the government, but not this time. This time the bar bill was too high and they said no. MD's and all medical staff believed they would be saved up until the 11th hour but no bailout. The CEO's of the hospital had gutted the system and left it for dead. No one was prosecuted as thousands lost their jobs and all the little coffee shops around it. At the end of the day, no one cared. I ended up losing my job because it was 80% of my revenue. I thought I would be with that company for most of my career. It took a couple years to recover, I burned through a lot of cash while i was trying to find the next step in my career. It was a big wake up call and ever since I keep my eyes open.
Interesting to hear Ssaffer. R
Posted by mundy on 22nd of Apr 2020 at 09:48 pm
Interesting to hear Ssaffer. R u a full time trader now?
No. That would be too
Posted by ssaffer on 22nd of Apr 2020 at 10:12 pm
No. That would be too dangerous. I moved to the west coast some years ago and most of the time I trade the first hour of the open before I start my work day. I am in medical sales. I love what I do and if I was just a full time trader i would be miserable.
Thanks Puma, hear ya, and
Posted by tahoe on 22nd of Apr 2020 at 07:25 pm
Thanks Puma, hear ya, and understand that perspective. It is similar in my sphere. The polarization of the conversations of today in general. Whether it climate or energy. Apparently you're not supposed to challenge the status quo. I remember something from a long time ago, when everybody else is thinking the same thing, someone is not thinking. Good luck and good energy with your trading, take care, be safe.