I'm not sure how, it was showing an exit, now it's not but I
think it should be. I might have to wait for 2 min after the
close to confirm. Remember options trade for 15 min after the
close
so I figured it out. This also gives you guys a good idea of how
fine details can affect things. I stated yesterday that the
system would close out on a close below the 4 SMA. Price is
currently below the 4 SMA. HOWEVER it's actually the 4 EMA, not the
SMA, price is still slightly above the EMA
on daily SPY
4 SMA = 279.95
4 EMA = 277.57
SPY Price currently 278.01 which is below the 4 SMA but above
the 4 EMA.
If I instead use the SMA the trade will close out. If I
use the EMA the trade will not close out. Now what's the
difference in statistics? They both have the same winning
percentage and max draw down. However the EMA has a slightly higher
total if you add all the trades i.e 10K gained vs 9K gained.
So you see the point and whyy this stuff drives me nuts at
times. Flip a coin. If you wanted to be out today, use the
SMA version, if you thought more downside use the EMA version.
I sent out an email linking to this thread and gave folks the
option to decide themselves. Again the exit as I had set missed by
pennies. Had I used the SMA it would have exited. If you had
nice gains from SPXU or options you bought yesterday and you wanted
to lock some gains in you have that options, and to keep some as
well.
anyway guys I think that example gives you a good example of how
things can come down to pennies and it can be something small like
an EMA vs an SMA - it's mere chance I used an EMA there vs an
SMA
while annoying I think it's kind of fascinating how these things
come down to stuff like that
Is the Spy system closing
Posted by wally1 on 15th of Apr 2020 at 03:33 pm
Is the Spy system closing out it's shorts today?
I'm not sure how, it
Posted by matt on 15th of Apr 2020 at 03:37 pm
I'm not sure how, it was showing an exit, now it's not but I think it should be. I might have to wait for 2 min after the close to confirm. Remember options trade for 15 min after the close
so I figured it out.
Posted by matt on 15th of Apr 2020 at 03:50 pm
so I figured it out. This also gives you guys a good idea of how fine details can affect things. I stated yesterday that the system would close out on a close below the 4 SMA. Price is currently below the 4 SMA. HOWEVER it's actually the 4 EMA, not the SMA, price is still slightly above the EMA
on daily SPY
4 SMA = 279.95
4 EMA = 277.57
SPY Price currently 278.01 which is below the 4 SMA but above the 4 EMA.
If I instead use the SMA the trade will close out. If I use the EMA the trade will not close out. Now what's the difference in statistics? They both have the same winning percentage and max draw down. However the EMA has a slightly higher total if you add all the trades i.e 10K gained vs 9K gained.
So you see the point and whyy this stuff drives me nuts at times. Flip a coin. If you wanted to be out today, use the SMA version, if you thought more downside use the EMA version.
rocket scientist stuff !!
Posted by sham22 on 15th of Apr 2020 at 03:58 pm
rocket scientist stuff !!
again this is likely to
Posted by matt on 15th of Apr 2020 at 03:53 pm
again this is likely to be pennies away from an exit via the EMA setting - so you could split the difference and close 1/2 if you wanted
What will you use for
Posted by bojackson on 15th of Apr 2020 at 04:00 pm
What will you use for the system on the site? Close out or stay?
277.14 as I type, would
Posted by puma on 15th of Apr 2020 at 03:53 pm
277.14 as I type, would close out either version :-)
I sent out an email
Posted by matt on 15th of Apr 2020 at 04:02 pm
I sent out an email linking to this thread and gave folks the option to decide themselves. Again the exit as I had set missed by pennies. Had I used the SMA it would have exited. If you had nice gains from SPXU or options you bought yesterday and you wanted to lock some gains in you have that options, and to keep some as well.
anyway guys I think that example gives you a good example of how things can come down to pennies and it can be something small like an EMA vs an SMA - it's mere chance I used an EMA there vs an SMA
while annoying I think it's kind of fascinating how these things come down to stuff like that
Only sure thing in these
Posted by retirefire on 15th of Apr 2020 at 04:14 pm
Only sure thing in these times is take profit, for my style, in these markets. Some smart guy says be nimble.