DeMark 9's showing up on all major indexes on daily charts. 

Matt, I just listened to your newsletter from last night and noted all the comments on bonds (TLT). We have been completely out of bonds since early 2020, except for one charitable foundation that is required to keep 20% in bonds. We are just starting to look at adding them back to other portfolios.. We will not likely buy ETF's. We'll want to own the individual bonds so that we are guaranteed a "yield to worst". 

they are a great company.  We have four dogs and there seems to be a Chewy shipment coming to our house at least every other day. So far have not been able to buy the stock though. 

I try to follow events in China as closely as I can. My younger daughter was born there 17 years ago. If you had told me then that our relations with China would be this bad, I would not have believed you. I am deeply saddened by how bad relations are between the two countries. As for the mortgage/banking/real estate crisis, it is severe and getting much worse quickly. It is very hard to see how it will be resolved without a major financial crisis in China, but they seem good at avoiding disasters. The only problem is that in this case, anything that the government does will likely only postpone the inevitable disaster. As for war, I don't think China will attack Taiwan, unless we keep making mistakes and provoke an "accident". My own belief is that they will eventually take it without so much as firing a shot. It's in their self interest to keep Taiwan from being damaged. They don't want to destroy it, like the Russians seem to be doing in Ukraine. Taiwan's industry, technology, and trade is simply too valuable. They will use this recent provocation to tighten the noose, but I don't think they will outright attack. Taiwan Semiconductor may be the single most important company in the world. China depends on it too.  China's military is making enormous advancements. Its Navy is already very formidable. I'm not making any kind of political statement when I say that I think it would already be difficult for us to defeat them, unless it escalated to nuclear war, and that is something no one wants. In 5 to 10 more years their Navy will be even more formidable. They are a 5000 year old society. They can be patient. All this is just one persons view. I hope there is no war. I hope to be able to take my daughter back to China someday to see her birthplace, but I wouldn't set foot in that country right now. 

I"m in INMD,  Interesting chart, good technology, great balance sheet, growing sales, and earnings, strong margins. 

Tom DeMark is a very highly regarded technical analyst who has been developing systems since the late 1970's. I find his systems to be extremely useful. I've seen Matt quote him from time to time. You can google DeMark systems and find several basic explanations. You can find videos on YouTube that explain his systems. Here is one link which provides some background.   https://www.mql5.com/en/blogs/post/742282  I love Breakpointtrades.com. I also find DeMark extremely useful. At one time you could only get his systems if you had a Bloomberg terminal. Now they are available through other sources, including Symbolik.com. 

For what it is worth the DeMark Combo 1B system got a "perfected buy" setup for SPY on June 21st. It is now at a 5 count of 9 in the upward trend since then. This indicates that the "9 count" which could mark a trend reversal is still potentially ahead of us. It is also showing a "disqualified buy TDST" at $415.85. I'm speculating that could be the point at which we get the reversal. That would support the speculation in this thread that the SPY might blow right past the gap and actually top out at the $415-$420 level. Just FYI. We'll all be watching. Thanks for all the great input and guidance. 

Could not agree more

Pelosi's husband is in real estate and venture capital. Very wealthy guy

Matt, great weekend letter and great Monday night letter! Love the guidance. I'm also with you on the comments about members of Congress . It's ridiculous that they can accumulate huge positions in companies or industries and then promote bills to benefit that industry.  

thank you!

Steve, I'm sorry but I don't understand this post. Are you leaning long the $SPX or long the $VIX? thank you. 

This is not a very technical answer, but how much prices will adjust is very much a factor of where you live. It's reasonable to expect a decline in housing prices across the U.S. that would represent an average percentage decline. But if you are in Florida, Texas or any of the other "hot markets" don't expect it to be much. Two weeks ago I spoke with a builder in Houston who is starting 500 new homes a month. He has seen no drop off in demand. I have investments in private real estate with Starwood and Blackstone. So far they have seen no drop off in demand. I live in the Napa Valley and we have seen no drop off in demand. It will come, but it will be uneven, depending on where you are looking. Good luck to you.

The IWM (ETF for the Russell 2000) is now extremely oversold on daily and weekly charts. It has dropped to its 50 month moving average, on the monthly chart. It’s only done that 5 previous times since 2009. It kept going lower during the financial crisis in 2009 and the bottom of the Covid crisis in 2020. The other three times marked a bottom.  On the DeMark monthly chart it has a "buy perfection 9 count". I got long today, for at least a trade. 

I love BreakPointTrades.com! I get research from Bloomberg, JP Morgan, Blackrock, Fidelity, FSInsight, and many more. None of it is more valuable than the technical analysis you guys provide. 

I've said the same thing, over and over. I own two PTON bikes and a treadmill. Great equipment that I use at least 5 days a week. I wouldn't touch the stock. 

I've been in the financial markets since 1981. I've been a portfolio manager since 1990. I can honestly say that I've never seen markets that are poised to completely unravel like they are now. I'm not saying it's going to happen. No one can predict that. I'm just saying that the conditions are certainly in place for a dramatic and climatic finish to an era that I believe is coming to an end. The biggest changes are that globalization is going away, dollar dominance is diminishing and will likely disappear in the next several years. We will have two economies, one focused on China/Russia and much of Asia. The other focused on USA/Europe and "the West". Throw in the fact that current political conditions and war in Europe are going to cause more reliance on fossil fuels, which is going to slow down the process of, and we have more chance of a total climate disaster. I'm not a pessimist. I never have been, but I am more afraid for financial markets, and the condition of our planet than ever before. 

This comment is spot on, and I think it's important to remember that the Fed is just getting started. Matt mentions that it's important for 4150 to hold on the $SPX. It might, for the short term, but longer term downside could easily extend to 3815, 3505, and even 3392. The first two are 38.2 and 50% retracements of the whole move off the bottom in March 2020. 3392 would put the S&P 500 back to its former high, from before the Covid crisis. I know these numbers may seem extreme, but as I said, the Fed is just getting started. Rule #1: Don't fight the Fed! 

Tom Lee is speculating that extreme selling pressure may be related to the following: 

Western policymakers seizing Oligarch assets = PEP on steroids = forced selling
Since policymakers in the West are now seizing Russian oligarch assets, there is a term that many fund managers are getting refreshers:

– PEP, or Politically Exposed Person
– having PEP as “investors” now poses risks for hedge funds, mutual funds, venture capitalists and private equity firms

– Thus, any fund with Russian oligarch money
– has a potential PEP

– the required response is likely these firms are doing mandatory redemptions of the capital from a PEP
– meaning, forced selling

This is a chart of the SPY's recent plunge. If anyone has expertise in Elliott Wave theory, I'd appreciate feedback on whether this looks like it fits the pattern of a 5 wave move down.  I'm not familiar enough with the rules to know if this fits.  The SPY, DIA, QQQ and IWM all look like this. Thank you.