I try to follow events in China as closely as I can. My younger daughter was born there 17 years ago. If you had told me then that our relations with China would be this bad, I would not have believed you. I am deeply saddened by how bad relations are between the two countries. As for the mortgage/banking/real estate crisis, it is severe and getting much worse quickly. It is very hard to see how it will be resolved without a major financial crisis in China, but they seem good at avoiding disasters. The only problem is that in this case, anything that the government does will likely only postpone the inevitable disaster. As for war, I don't think China will attack Taiwan, unless we keep making mistakes and provoke an "accident". My own belief is that they will eventually take it without so much as firing a shot. It's in their self interest to keep Taiwan from being damaged. They don't want to destroy it, like the Russians seem to be doing in Ukraine. Taiwan's industry, technology, and trade is simply too valuable. They will use this recent provocation to tighten the noose, but I don't think they will outright attack. Taiwan Semiconductor may be the single most important company in the world. China depends on it too.  China's military is making enormous advancements. Its Navy is already very formidable. I'm not making any kind of political statement when I say that I think it would already be difficult for us to defeat them, unless it escalated to nuclear war, and that is something no one wants. In 5 to 10 more years their Navy will be even more formidable. They are a 5000 year old society. They can be patient. All this is just one persons view. I hope there is no war. I hope to be able to take my daughter back to China someday to see her birthplace, but I wouldn't set foot in that country right now. 

The director of CIA recently said it's a matter of "WHEN" not "IF" with Taiwan and the closer we get to the end of this decade the more risky. I generally agree with him - but it is extremely unlikely to be now. How long does it take is very hard to say - but there will be lots of evidence like the Russia-Ukraine war was warned for a long time.